e*u
2 楼
著名野生经济学家宋鸿兵先生,于太原征收智商税期间遭暴力抗税,罗斯柴尔德家族表
示对此次袭击负责。路边社消息称,被打断一条腿的他,将改名宋鸿乒或宋鸿乓继续行
走江湖。
示对此次袭击负责。路边社消息称,被打断一条腿的他,将改名宋鸿乒或宋鸿乓继续行
走江湖。
b*r
3 楼
上街浴巾送得好啊。
B*t
5 楼
村长,俺坚信俺的果果要出水
l*o
8 楼
活该。
现在国内金融骗子找这些金融名人站台已经成常态了。应该把这些专家骗子都打一遍
现在国内金融骗子找这些金融名人站台已经成常态了。应该把这些专家骗子都打一遍
z*u
14 楼
宋江丘.
割下小jj
割下小jj
b*r
18 楼
大帅太威猛了。
CYG快出来歌颂!
CYG快出来歌颂!
w*o
21 楼
欧债危机这种事,你就不用跟我摆了。
b*r
29 楼
我也不觉得大帅这次说的有道理。不过可能是我们层次不到哈哈。
b*r
31 楼
4/27的大ER绝对是重中之重。
a*e
43 楼
But money flows are based on outlook. 一谈到因果关系,我就不舒服,
很容易落入窠臼。
需要大量大量的数据来把各个事件联系起来也不见得能得到什么有说服力的结果。
你说的那个不错,
如果真降了,一个方向做期货arb的人会不得不rebalance,足够引起指数很大的波动。
S&P的报告里面的不光讲了主权债评级,而且outlook是negative,近期的市场本来
就非常fragile,谁知道他会不会下调个股评级?
【在 w*******o 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
: ER影响的是中长期的Outlook,而短期市场影响更大的是钱流。
: 如果说今天强大涨势是ER影响,那又怎么解释周一大跌200多点呢?
: 没有什么大ER.美国国债降级只是一个warning而已,如果真降了,
: 别的不说,现有的所有基于US treasury是 risk free的模型都得
: 改写,市场怎么走还真的还难说.
很容易落入窠臼。
需要大量大量的数据来把各个事件联系起来也不见得能得到什么有说服力的结果。
你说的那个不错,
如果真降了,一个方向做期货arb的人会不得不rebalance,足够引起指数很大的波动。
S&P的报告里面的不光讲了主权债评级,而且outlook是negative,近期的市场本来
就非常fragile,谁知道他会不会下调个股评级?
【在 w*******o 的大作中提到】
![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
: ER影响的是中长期的Outlook,而短期市场影响更大的是钱流。
: 如果说今天强大涨势是ER影响,那又怎么解释周一大跌200多点呢?
: 没有什么大ER.美国国债降级只是一个warning而已,如果真降了,
: 别的不说,现有的所有基于US treasury是 risk free的模型都得
: 改写,市场怎么走还真的还难说.
g*u
45 楼
我可以很负责任的告诉你:周一 treasury 的事情根本就没人 care.
Treasury bonds 是真正的 too big to fail。你们不在 financial industry
里面的可能不理解:在当代金融市场中,Treasury yield curve 可以说是坐标原点,
几乎所有东西的定价,特别是 derivatives,都有它在里面。如果 us treasury
ever defaults 的话,过去二十年所有金融工程理论都要重新写过。
我不是说 us treasury will never default, 但是决不是十年以内的事情。
所以那些 rating agencies 爱说什么说什么,不需要反应,simply nobody cares.
【在 w******s 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
: 周一市场是对那个降级warning的直接反映,然后大家反应过来其实暂时不用担心。。
Treasury bonds 是真正的 too big to fail。你们不在 financial industry
里面的可能不理解:在当代金融市场中,Treasury yield curve 可以说是坐标原点,
几乎所有东西的定价,特别是 derivatives,都有它在里面。如果 us treasury
ever defaults 的话,过去二十年所有金融工程理论都要重新写过。
我不是说 us treasury will never default, 但是决不是十年以内的事情。
所以那些 rating agencies 爱说什么说什么,不需要反应,simply nobody cares.
【在 w******s 的大作中提到】
![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
: 周一市场是对那个降级warning的直接反映,然后大家反应过来其实暂时不用担心。。
b*e
46 楼
那也不能说要重新写过,就是把Rf=Rf* 定义清楚,比如Rf* 改成一个定标,比如gold
back IMF money, 把treasury yield cure换成 swap rate curve也是可以的。
【在 g****u 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
: 我可以很负责任的告诉你:周一 treasury 的事情根本就没人 care.
: Treasury bonds 是真正的 too big to fail。你们不在 financial industry
: 里面的可能不理解:在当代金融市场中,Treasury yield curve 可以说是坐标原点,
: 几乎所有东西的定价,特别是 derivatives,都有它在里面。如果 us treasury
: ever defaults 的话,过去二十年所有金融工程理论都要重新写过。
: 我不是说 us treasury will never default, 但是决不是十年以内的事情。
: 所以那些 rating agencies 爱说什么说什么,不需要反应,simply nobody cares.
back IMF money, 把treasury yield cure换成 swap rate curve也是可以的。
【在 g****u 的大作中提到】
![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
: 我可以很负责任的告诉你:周一 treasury 的事情根本就没人 care.
: Treasury bonds 是真正的 too big to fail。你们不在 financial industry
: 里面的可能不理解:在当代金融市场中,Treasury yield curve 可以说是坐标原点,
: 几乎所有东西的定价,特别是 derivatives,都有它在里面。如果 us treasury
: ever defaults 的话,过去二十年所有金融工程理论都要重新写过。
: 我不是说 us treasury will never default, 但是决不是十年以内的事情。
: 所以那些 rating agencies 爱说什么说什么,不需要反应,simply nobody cares.
g*u
47 楼
不用谈default吧。
就说10-year yield涨跌吧?!
【在 g****u 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
: 我可以很负责任的告诉你:周一 treasury 的事情根本就没人 care.
: Treasury bonds 是真正的 too big to fail。你们不在 financial industry
: 里面的可能不理解:在当代金融市场中,Treasury yield curve 可以说是坐标原点,
: 几乎所有东西的定价,特别是 derivatives,都有它在里面。如果 us treasury
: ever defaults 的话,过去二十年所有金融工程理论都要重新写过。
: 我不是说 us treasury will never default, 但是决不是十年以内的事情。
: 所以那些 rating agencies 爱说什么说什么,不需要反应,simply nobody cares.
就说10-year yield涨跌吧?!
【在 g****u 的大作中提到】
![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
: 我可以很负责任的告诉你:周一 treasury 的事情根本就没人 care.
: Treasury bonds 是真正的 too big to fail。你们不在 financial industry
: 里面的可能不理解:在当代金融市场中,Treasury yield curve 可以说是坐标原点,
: 几乎所有东西的定价,特别是 derivatives,都有它在里面。如果 us treasury
: ever defaults 的话,过去二十年所有金融工程理论都要重新写过。
: 我不是说 us treasury will never default, 但是决不是十年以内的事情。
: 所以那些 rating agencies 爱说什么说什么,不需要反应,simply nobody cares.
a*e
49 楼
Partially agree but you are simply wrong about one thing.
a lot theories have such risk free factor, especially derivatives pricing.
But no theory requires the risk free factor must be "US treasury".
for european market, they refer to different rate if the rate is more than
LIBOR, there are triple A in Euro systems too.
For arbitrageurs, you refer to different risk free rate if the time for you
to fulfill your arbitrages is different.
The framework of all theory would not change at all, all you need is a new
risk free rate for your model.
If there is no such things, market won't comply to any BS theory.
it's the opposite way.
But I agree, us treasury is very unlikely to default in the near future
unless some disaster happens.
【在 g****u 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
: 我可以很负责任的告诉你:周一 treasury 的事情根本就没人 care.
: Treasury bonds 是真正的 too big to fail。你们不在 financial industry
: 里面的可能不理解:在当代金融市场中,Treasury yield curve 可以说是坐标原点,
: 几乎所有东西的定价,特别是 derivatives,都有它在里面。如果 us treasury
: ever defaults 的话,过去二十年所有金融工程理论都要重新写过。
: 我不是说 us treasury will never default, 但是决不是十年以内的事情。
: 所以那些 rating agencies 爱说什么说什么,不需要反应,simply nobody cares.
a lot theories have such risk free factor, especially derivatives pricing.
But no theory requires the risk free factor must be "US treasury".
for european market, they refer to different rate if the rate is more than
LIBOR, there are triple A in Euro systems too.
For arbitrageurs, you refer to different risk free rate if the time for you
to fulfill your arbitrages is different.
The framework of all theory would not change at all, all you need is a new
risk free rate for your model.
If there is no such things, market won't comply to any BS theory.
it's the opposite way.
But I agree, us treasury is very unlikely to default in the near future
unless some disaster happens.
【在 g****u 的大作中提到】
![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
: 我可以很负责任的告诉你:周一 treasury 的事情根本就没人 care.
: Treasury bonds 是真正的 too big to fail。你们不在 financial industry
: 里面的可能不理解:在当代金融市场中,Treasury yield curve 可以说是坐标原点,
: 几乎所有东西的定价,特别是 derivatives,都有它在里面。如果 us treasury
: ever defaults 的话,过去二十年所有金融工程理论都要重新写过。
: 我不是说 us treasury will never default, 但是决不是十年以内的事情。
: 所以那些 rating agencies 爱说什么说什么,不需要反应,simply nobody cares.
g*u
52 楼
老兄,不是我想装B,你实在对现在的 derivative market 了解得太少了。
可以这么说:It's incredibly complicated, much more complicated than
you thought, yet it's incredibly simple, as everybody simply assume
US treasury will never default.
我不是说理论上没法 handle treasury default, 我是说现实中 it will be a
huge mess, so big that nobody even dares to think about it.
pricing.
than
for you
new
【在 a*****e 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
: Partially agree but you are simply wrong about one thing.
: a lot theories have such risk free factor, especially derivatives pricing.
: But no theory requires the risk free factor must be "US treasury".
: for european market, they refer to different rate if the rate is more than
: LIBOR, there are triple A in Euro systems too.
: For arbitrageurs, you refer to different risk free rate if the time for you
: to fulfill your arbitrages is different.
: The framework of all theory would not change at all, all you need is a new
: risk free rate for your model.
: If there is no such things, market won't comply to any BS theory.
可以这么说:It's incredibly complicated, much more complicated than
you thought, yet it's incredibly simple, as everybody simply assume
US treasury will never default.
我不是说理论上没法 handle treasury default, 我是说现实中 it will be a
huge mess, so big that nobody even dares to think about it.
pricing.
than
for you
new
【在 a*****e 的大作中提到】
![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
: Partially agree but you are simply wrong about one thing.
: a lot theories have such risk free factor, especially derivatives pricing.
: But no theory requires the risk free factor must be "US treasury".
: for european market, they refer to different rate if the rate is more than
: LIBOR, there are triple A in Euro systems too.
: For arbitrageurs, you refer to different risk free rate if the time for you
: to fulfill your arbitrages is different.
: The framework of all theory would not change at all, all you need is a new
: risk free rate for your model.
: If there is no such things, market won't comply to any BS theory.
a*e
53 楼
you think you are the only one is in the field on this board? lol
name any theory you know.
【在 g****u 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
: 老兄,不是我想装B,你实在对现在的 derivative market 了解得太少了。
: 可以这么说:It's incredibly complicated, much more complicated than
: you thought, yet it's incredibly simple, as everybody simply assume
: US treasury will never default.
: 我不是说理论上没法 handle treasury default, 我是说现实中 it will be a
: huge mess, so big that nobody even dares to think about it.
:
: pricing.
: than
: for you
name any theory you know.
【在 g****u 的大作中提到】
![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
: 老兄,不是我想装B,你实在对现在的 derivative market 了解得太少了。
: 可以这么说:It's incredibly complicated, much more complicated than
: you thought, yet it's incredibly simple, as everybody simply assume
: US treasury will never default.
: 我不是说理论上没法 handle treasury default, 我是说现实中 it will be a
: huge mess, so big that nobody even dares to think about it.
:
: pricing.
: than
: for you
a*e
55 楼
anyway, I don't know you, I just said my opinion。No fense.
If you think financials are built on fancy theories, I don't mind.
I never thought derivatives theories are challenging.
I once met a MFE student who took Phd course instead of his own
course, and he claimed Phd level course gave him better perspectives
on the theories.
He thought it was the option pricing theory made the options market
more efficient, I couldn't help laughing.
but who cares whether market reaches efficiency itself.
those who made most are always from primitive, straightforward and brutal ideas.
it's your tone not your opinion that bothers ppl.
you sounds pretty much from sell side.
【在 g****u 的大作中提到】![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
: I am sure I am not. But anyone who has a bigger picture of the
: industry will know what I am talking about.
If you think financials are built on fancy theories, I don't mind.
I never thought derivatives theories are challenging.
I once met a MFE student who took Phd course instead of his own
course, and he claimed Phd level course gave him better perspectives
on the theories.
He thought it was the option pricing theory made the options market
more efficient, I couldn't help laughing.
but who cares whether market reaches efficiency itself.
those who made most are always from primitive, straightforward and brutal ideas.
it's your tone not your opinion that bothers ppl.
you sounds pretty much from sell side.
【在 g****u 的大作中提到】
![](/moin_static193/solenoid/img/up.png)
: I am sure I am not. But anyone who has a bigger picture of the
: industry will know what I am talking about.
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