f*d
2 楼
Where are the Circuit Breakers?
By, Ron DeLegge
Aug 10, 2011
A 17 percent drop in stocks over the past 15 trading sessions is pretty bad,
so why haven't trading curbs been triggered? Let's look at this and the
NYSE's Q3 thresholds.
Black August wasn’t supposed to happen until much later or even at all.
That’s what Wall Street’s gurus have been telling us. They certainly didn
’t see this coming and how could they? They’ve been on vacation in the
Hamptons.
Meanwhile, precious metals (NYSEArca: GLTR) and long-term U.S. Treasuries (
NYSEArca: TLT) are surging. Why hasn’t the violent sell off in stocks (
NYSEArca: VTI) been interrupted with any circuit breakers or trading halts?
Before we answer that, let’s delve into the unimportant topic of corporate
earnings. (We say “unimportant” because that’s how the stock market is
treating the subject of earnings right now.)
Do Earnings Matter?
Despite a 17 percent drop in 15 trading sessions for the S&P 500 (NYSEArca:
SPY), Chief Strategists remain bullish. Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) and
Barclays (NYSE: BARC) expect the index to end 23 percent higher (from 1,140)
to around 1,400 by the end of 2011. Last year they stuck to their guns and
we’re proven right, but will this year be different?
The primary thesis behind S&P 1,400 by year-end is that good earnings will
lift stocks. For third-quarter results, 75 percent of reporting S&P
companies have topped profit expectations on increasing sales, according to
Bloomberg.
Despite this, the stock market is signaling a double dip recession. Oddly,
this urgent memo still hasn’t yet reached any of the desks at the National
Bureau of Economic Research. According to their members’ slide rulers, we
haven’t been in a recession for a few quarters. Are they serious?! That’s
why it’s best to listen to the mother of all leading indicators (the stock
market) and to tune out the out-of-touch academic mumbo jumbo.
Is the South Korea “Solution” coming?
Financial regulators like the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) are
closely watching the stock market’s erratic behavior. And if stocks keep
sinking, don’t be surprised to see them implement the South Korea “
solution.” What is it?
In response to falling stock prices, South Korea’s Financial Services
Commission just banned the short sale on all stocks until November 9. The
country’s regulators already had bans against short selling in publicly
traded financial companies.
If a similar move happens in the U.S., it would ape the South Koreans and be
a repeat incident of 2008. It was then that the SEC placed a temporary ban
on shorting financial stocks. At that time, the intense selling was on
banking (NYSEArca: KBE) and financial shares (NYSEArca: XLF). But this time
around, the selling has reached global proportions (NYSEArca: VB). Could we
see a situation where the SEC bans short selling on a broad swath of stocks?
Q3 Circuit Breaker Levels
The reason trading curbs haven’t yet kicked in, is because none of the
stock market’s declines have violated single day thresholds. Each quarter,
the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) calculates and sets circuit-breaker
levels as 10, 20 and 30 percent of the DJIA (NYSEArca: DIA) average closing
values of the previous month, rounded to the nearest 50 points.
For the third quarter, the 10-, 20- and 30-percent decline levels, in the
DJIA are the following:
Level 1 Halt (10% drop)
A 1,200-point drop in the DJIA before 2 p.m. will halt trading for one hour;
for 30 minutes if between 2 p.m. and 2:30 p.m.; and have no effect if at 2:
30 p.m. or later unless there is a level 2 halt.
Level 2 Halt (20% drop)
A 2,400-point drop in the DJIA before 1:00 p.m. will halt trading for two
hours; for one hour if between 1:00 p.m. and 2:00 p.m.; and for the
remainder of the day if at 2:00 p.m. or later.
Level 3 Halt (30% drop)
A 3,650-point drop will halt trading for the remainder of the day regardless
of when the decline occurs.
Remember: Circuit-breaker points represent the thresholds at which trading
is halted marketwide for single-day declines in the DJIA and by that measure
, we’re not there.
The percentage levels were first implemented in April 1998 and the point
levels are adjusted on the first trading day of each quarter. The final
adjustment to these levels for this year comes on October 3.
Conclusion
In a market with successive declining days of 2-6 percent like we’ve had
over the past 15 trading sessions, trading halts won’t save you. And
neither will temporary measures to artificially boost stock prices. ETFguide
’s ETF Profit Strategy newsletter outlines how to successfully navigate the
market’s rough waters. In the end, there is no substitute for having a
rational and executable investment plan in any environment, especially this
one.
By, Ron DeLegge
Aug 10, 2011
A 17 percent drop in stocks over the past 15 trading sessions is pretty bad,
so why haven't trading curbs been triggered? Let's look at this and the
NYSE's Q3 thresholds.
Black August wasn’t supposed to happen until much later or even at all.
That’s what Wall Street’s gurus have been telling us. They certainly didn
’t see this coming and how could they? They’ve been on vacation in the
Hamptons.
Meanwhile, precious metals (NYSEArca: GLTR) and long-term U.S. Treasuries (
NYSEArca: TLT) are surging. Why hasn’t the violent sell off in stocks (
NYSEArca: VTI) been interrupted with any circuit breakers or trading halts?
Before we answer that, let’s delve into the unimportant topic of corporate
earnings. (We say “unimportant” because that’s how the stock market is
treating the subject of earnings right now.)
Do Earnings Matter?
Despite a 17 percent drop in 15 trading sessions for the S&P 500 (NYSEArca:
SPY), Chief Strategists remain bullish. Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) and
Barclays (NYSE: BARC) expect the index to end 23 percent higher (from 1,140)
to around 1,400 by the end of 2011. Last year they stuck to their guns and
we’re proven right, but will this year be different?
The primary thesis behind S&P 1,400 by year-end is that good earnings will
lift stocks. For third-quarter results, 75 percent of reporting S&P
companies have topped profit expectations on increasing sales, according to
Bloomberg.
Despite this, the stock market is signaling a double dip recession. Oddly,
this urgent memo still hasn’t yet reached any of the desks at the National
Bureau of Economic Research. According to their members’ slide rulers, we
haven’t been in a recession for a few quarters. Are they serious?! That’s
why it’s best to listen to the mother of all leading indicators (the stock
market) and to tune out the out-of-touch academic mumbo jumbo.
Is the South Korea “Solution” coming?
Financial regulators like the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) are
closely watching the stock market’s erratic behavior. And if stocks keep
sinking, don’t be surprised to see them implement the South Korea “
solution.” What is it?
In response to falling stock prices, South Korea’s Financial Services
Commission just banned the short sale on all stocks until November 9. The
country’s regulators already had bans against short selling in publicly
traded financial companies.
If a similar move happens in the U.S., it would ape the South Koreans and be
a repeat incident of 2008. It was then that the SEC placed a temporary ban
on shorting financial stocks. At that time, the intense selling was on
banking (NYSEArca: KBE) and financial shares (NYSEArca: XLF). But this time
around, the selling has reached global proportions (NYSEArca: VB). Could we
see a situation where the SEC bans short selling on a broad swath of stocks?
Q3 Circuit Breaker Levels
The reason trading curbs haven’t yet kicked in, is because none of the
stock market’s declines have violated single day thresholds. Each quarter,
the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) calculates and sets circuit-breaker
levels as 10, 20 and 30 percent of the DJIA (NYSEArca: DIA) average closing
values of the previous month, rounded to the nearest 50 points.
For the third quarter, the 10-, 20- and 30-percent decline levels, in the
DJIA are the following:
Level 1 Halt (10% drop)
A 1,200-point drop in the DJIA before 2 p.m. will halt trading for one hour;
for 30 minutes if between 2 p.m. and 2:30 p.m.; and have no effect if at 2:
30 p.m. or later unless there is a level 2 halt.
Level 2 Halt (20% drop)
A 2,400-point drop in the DJIA before 1:00 p.m. will halt trading for two
hours; for one hour if between 1:00 p.m. and 2:00 p.m.; and for the
remainder of the day if at 2:00 p.m. or later.
Level 3 Halt (30% drop)
A 3,650-point drop will halt trading for the remainder of the day regardless
of when the decline occurs.
Remember: Circuit-breaker points represent the thresholds at which trading
is halted marketwide for single-day declines in the DJIA and by that measure
, we’re not there.
The percentage levels were first implemented in April 1998 and the point
levels are adjusted on the first trading day of each quarter. The final
adjustment to these levels for this year comes on October 3.
Conclusion
In a market with successive declining days of 2-6 percent like we’ve had
over the past 15 trading sessions, trading halts won’t save you. And
neither will temporary measures to artificially boost stock prices. ETFguide
’s ETF Profit Strategy newsletter outlines how to successfully navigate the
market’s rough waters. In the end, there is no substitute for having a
rational and executable investment plan in any environment, especially this
one.
s*f
3 楼
1、前两天跟女朋友吵架，当时为了哄她，就说等发完工资我给你买两瓶香水，昨天刚
发完工资，我一哥们打电话急用钱，我就把钱都转给他了，女朋友发信息一直提醒我买
香水别买太贵的，普通的就行。晚上下班时我拎着两瓶在门口小卖部买的六神花露水，
用颤抖的手敲响了那扇注定会让我痛不欲生的门...
2、其实吧，相亲这种事，7分靠语气，2分靠表情，1分靠内容，剩下的90分靠长相。
3、小刘：“经理，你看，我的工资是不是可以调高点呢？”美女经理：“马上滚出去
！”小刘：“经理，你不是说在你方便的时候再说吗？”美女经理：“滚！”美女经理
一边提着裤子，一边怒吼着：“我没让你在我上厕所的时候说，滚！！！”
4、有一半夜，路过粉红色灯光的小屋（你们懂得），里面老板娘就朝我喊：“老板，
进来坐坐呀！”我对她说：“要钱么？”然后她怒气冲冲对我说：“你见过世上免费的
按摩店么？”然后我破口大骂她：“你特么见过这么晚下班的老板？”
5、开会，有位穿超短裙的美女同事。我统计了一下，会议期间，总经理的笔掉了1次，
营销总监的笔掉了3次，财务张大头的笔掉了7次，就我的笔没掉，因为我的手机都是放
在桌子下面的。
6、今天小姨子跟我摊牌了：“姐夫！我喜欢你很久了，你敢不敢跟我姐离婚，跟我浪
迹天涯？”我拉着她的手，指着卧室上挂着的婚纱照说：“你看我和你姐多恩爱！”又
指着跆拳道冠军的奖杯，说：“你看你姐多优秀！”
7、邻居大妈给我介绍了个对象，说是个空姐，兴奋的我一夜没睡好。第二天见了面一
看，人确实漂亮。但是一张嘴就是要求月收入多少多少，房子多大多大，要什么牌子的
车，我听得腻歪了就说了一句：“你咋不上天呢？”空姐优雅的一笑：“我今天休息啊
。”
8、一哥们在网上买了兰博基尼跑车的钥匙，花了不到五十块钱。每次进夜店喝酒时，
就把钥匙往桌上一扔，随后各种谣言妩媚的美女前来搭讪，后来酒醉人归，带姑娘回家
，姑娘们问他：“车呢？”然后哥们非常淡定的说：“喝酒不开车，开车不喝酒，咱们
打车回去吧！”
9、失恋了晚上一个人去吃烤串儿，和老板唠嗑，老板抱怨说：“现在生意不好做了，
昨晚上几个小混混喝多了，没付钱就走了。”我一听，what？还有这种事？立刻一仰脖
儿把大半瓶二锅头干了......
10、 一哥们打开女同学空间，有个相册写着：“我的裸照，”需要密码，密码提示问
题是：“叫声妈就给你看，”他猥琐的打了个妈字，居然打开了！打开的一刹那，他泪
流满面，只看见里面就一个大大的乖字。
发完工资，我一哥们打电话急用钱，我就把钱都转给他了，女朋友发信息一直提醒我买
香水别买太贵的，普通的就行。晚上下班时我拎着两瓶在门口小卖部买的六神花露水，
用颤抖的手敲响了那扇注定会让我痛不欲生的门...
2、其实吧，相亲这种事，7分靠语气，2分靠表情，1分靠内容，剩下的90分靠长相。
3、小刘：“经理，你看，我的工资是不是可以调高点呢？”美女经理：“马上滚出去
！”小刘：“经理，你不是说在你方便的时候再说吗？”美女经理：“滚！”美女经理
一边提着裤子，一边怒吼着：“我没让你在我上厕所的时候说，滚！！！”
4、有一半夜，路过粉红色灯光的小屋（你们懂得），里面老板娘就朝我喊：“老板，
进来坐坐呀！”我对她说：“要钱么？”然后她怒气冲冲对我说：“你见过世上免费的
按摩店么？”然后我破口大骂她：“你特么见过这么晚下班的老板？”
5、开会，有位穿超短裙的美女同事。我统计了一下，会议期间，总经理的笔掉了1次，
营销总监的笔掉了3次，财务张大头的笔掉了7次，就我的笔没掉，因为我的手机都是放
在桌子下面的。
6、今天小姨子跟我摊牌了：“姐夫！我喜欢你很久了，你敢不敢跟我姐离婚，跟我浪
迹天涯？”我拉着她的手，指着卧室上挂着的婚纱照说：“你看我和你姐多恩爱！”又
指着跆拳道冠军的奖杯，说：“你看你姐多优秀！”
7、邻居大妈给我介绍了个对象，说是个空姐，兴奋的我一夜没睡好。第二天见了面一
看，人确实漂亮。但是一张嘴就是要求月收入多少多少，房子多大多大，要什么牌子的
车，我听得腻歪了就说了一句：“你咋不上天呢？”空姐优雅的一笑：“我今天休息啊
。”
8、一哥们在网上买了兰博基尼跑车的钥匙，花了不到五十块钱。每次进夜店喝酒时，
就把钥匙往桌上一扔，随后各种谣言妩媚的美女前来搭讪，后来酒醉人归，带姑娘回家
，姑娘们问他：“车呢？”然后哥们非常淡定的说：“喝酒不开车，开车不喝酒，咱们
打车回去吧！”
9、失恋了晚上一个人去吃烤串儿，和老板唠嗑，老板抱怨说：“现在生意不好做了，
昨晚上几个小混混喝多了，没付钱就走了。”我一听，what？还有这种事？立刻一仰脖
儿把大半瓶二锅头干了......
10、 一哥们打开女同学空间，有个相册写着：“我的裸照，”需要密码，密码提示问
题是：“叫声妈就给你看，”他猥琐的打了个妈字，居然打开了！打开的一刹那，他泪
流满面，只看见里面就一个大大的乖字。
m*r
4 楼
what to 爆？
【在 b****i 的大作中提到】
: 工作中。。。
【在 b****i 的大作中提到】
: 工作中。。。
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