The system is as follows: BUY RULE Buy when monthly price > 10-month SMA. SELL RULE Sell and move to cash when monthly price < 10-month SMA. 1. All entry and exit prices are on the day of the signal at the close. 2. All data series are total return series including dividends, updated monthly. 3. Cash returns are estimated with 90-day commercial paper, and margin rates (for leveraged models to be discussed later) are estimated with the broker call rate. 4. Taxes, commissions, and slippage are exc
ran this strategy on spx since 1927. got sharpe ratio of 0.399. the best parameter is crossing 15 months SMA with sharpe of 0.459, which is still not high enough to be used in real trading.
rates
【在 m**********r 的大作中提到】 : The system is as follows: : BUY RULE : Buy when monthly price > 10-month SMA. : SELL RULE : Sell and move to cash when monthly price < 10-month SMA. : 1. All entry and exit prices are on the day of the signal at the close. : 2. All data series are total return series including dividends, updated : monthly. : 3. Cash returns are estimated with 90-day commercial paper, and margin rates : (for leveraged models to be
y*g
14 楼
最後那个显得有点斯文了, 呵呵 ^^
【在 z**z 的大作中提到】 : 最后来个弗勒门戈版
h*y
15 楼
赞专业.
with
【在 o*****c 的大作中提到】 : ran this strategy on spx since 1927. : got sharpe ratio of 0.399. the best parameter is crossing 15 months SMA with : sharpe of 0.459, which is still not high enough to be used in real trading. : : rates
k*n
16 楼
这个是少数几个百听不厌的
【在 z**z 的大作中提到】 : 不论哪个版本。 : 最经典的钢琴版。
b*e
17 楼
Take trading cost you may find the sharp close to 0.
with
【在 o*****c 的大作中提到】 : ran this strategy on spx since 1927. : got sharpe ratio of 0.399. the best parameter is crossing 15 months SMA with : sharpe of 0.459, which is still not high enough to be used in real trading. : : rates
B*i
18 楼
嗯,百听不厌
【在 z**z 的大作中提到】 : 不论哪个版本。 : 最经典的钢琴版。
o*c
19 楼
it is based on monthly SPX data. you can almost ignore the trading cost if trading ES/SPY going forward.
【在 b*****e 的大作中提到】 : Take trading cost you may find the sharp close to 0. : : with
j*n
20 楼
钢琴版难道不会丢声部么? 3个旋律加一个低音
【在 z**z 的大作中提到】 : 不论哪个版本。 : 最经典的钢琴版。
b*e
21 楼
Try 20bps trading cost for each buy and sell, let see what the result. It should be a fairly quick work in excel.
C*O
22 楼
唉 这样的音乐我听了心理就会难过
u*o
23 楼
what is sharpe ratio ?
y*g
24 楼
what ? ... 哈哈哈哈 .. =D
【在 C*O 的大作中提到】 : 唉 这样的音乐我听了心理就会难过
h*y
25 楼
Some form of risk-adjusted return calculation. The issue with sharpe ratio is that it uses volatility as a proxy of the inherent risk. The sharpe ratio of S&P 500 is 0.4 so if the goal is to beat S&P 500 it needs to be significantly higher than that of S&P 500.
By the way, I didn't mean that the investment is good as long as its sharpe ratio is significantly higher than S&P 500. LTCM before its bust has a sharpe ratio well over 4. So to each of his own...
【在 h*******y 的大作中提到】 : Some form of risk-adjusted return calculation. The issue with sharpe ratio : is that it uses volatility as a proxy of the inherent risk. : The sharpe ratio of S&P 500 is 0.4 so if the goal is to beat S&P 500 it : needs to be significantly higher than that of S&P 500.
all TA has this problem: they work until they don't.
sharpe
【在 h*******y 的大作中提到】 : By the way, I didn't mean that the investment is good as long as its sharpe : ratio is significantly higher than S&P 500. LTCM before its bust has a : sharpe ratio well over 4. So to each of his own...
if you are really in a trading desk, you should know slippage+commission cost should be less than 3bps for trading long-term index futures. ok. let's use the nonsense 20 bps. sharpe is 0.392 for crossing 10 sma and 0.456 for crossing 15 sma.
【在 b*****e 的大作中提到】 : Try 20bps trading cost for each buy and sell, let see what the result. It : should be a fairly quick work in excel.
T*n
36 楼
what is 听来听去?
【在 z**z 的大作中提到】 : 不论哪个版本。 : 最经典的钢琴版。
o*c
37 楼
it should be less than 0.15 if you buy and hold sp since 1927. i didn't consider dividend though.
【在 h*******y 的大作中提到】 : Some form of risk-adjusted return calculation. The issue with sharpe ratio : is that it uses volatility as a proxy of the inherent risk. : The sharpe ratio of S&P 500 is 0.4 so if the goal is to beat S&P 500 it : needs to be significantly higher than that of S&P 500.
Since 1927 up to when? My naive testing shows 10 SMA cumulative P&L is beaten by buy and hold from Oct 1928 to May 2009 (pre sample reserved for moving average). Of course i ignored rebate, fincing and trading cost etc.
with
【在 o*****c 的大作中提到】 : ran this strategy on spx since 1927. : got sharpe ratio of 0.399. the best parameter is crossing 15 months SMA with : sharpe of 0.459, which is still not high enough to be used in real trading. : : rates
j*1
40 楼
呵呵~ 伤感 伤感而已
【在 C*O 的大作中提到】 : 唉 这样的音乐我听了心理就会难过
o*c
41 楼
did we talk about sharpe ratio? do you know the difference between sharpe and PnL? so you like the profit chart of buy&hold below???
from
【在 b*****e 的大作中提到】 : Since 1927 up to when? : My naive testing shows 10 SMA cumulative P&L is beaten by buy and hold from : Oct 1928 to May 2009 (pre sample reserved for moving average). Of course i : ignored rebate, fincing and trading cost etc. : : with
s*y
42 楼
你又伤感啥了
【在 j****1 的大作中提到】 : 呵呵~ 伤感 伤感而已
b*e
43 楼
I don't have any preference on either strategy. I just said what I observed. Btw, I think your sharp ratio calculation maybe wrong, especially after taking trading cost.
【在 o*****c 的大作中提到】 : did we talk about sharpe ratio? do you know the difference between sharpe : and PnL? : so you like the profit chart of buy&hold below??? : : from
j*1
44 楼
是曲子的问题~
【在 s*******y 的大作中提到】 : 你又伤感啥了
o*c
45 楼
then get the right sharpe for us, pls. if avg profit is over 9% per trade, why do you care about the 20bps or several bps trading cost? that doesn't make any sense.that is not a high frequency strategy, right?
observed.
【在 b*****e 的大作中提到】 : I don't have any preference on either strategy. I just said what I observed. : Btw, I think your sharp ratio calculation maybe wrong, especially after : taking trading cost.
I don't think trade cost is the problem. This kind of long term indicators show up once a year at most. But I am not sure if you've counted the return when the money sits aside. Unlike B&H, you are not fully in at all time.
【在 o*****c 的大作中提到】 : then get the right sharpe for us, pls. : if avg profit is over 9% per trade, why do you care about the 20bps or : several bps trading cost? that doesn't make any sense.that is not a high : frequency strategy, right? : : observed.
I will calculate the vol for months in position only, exclude cash holding months.
【在 o*****c 的大作中提到】 : then get the right sharpe for us, pls. : if avg profit is over 9% per trade, why do you care about the 20bps or : several bps trading cost? that doesn't make any sense.that is not a high : frequency strategy, right? : : observed.