g*i
2 楼
回过头来看看房子的顶和底。 2006年中, 房子达到最高, 小地方有滞后, 大概
2007年, 开始降, 底步在8千延期时达到。 当时是人心慌慌, 心理因素造就了
价格。 不过底部的形成不是一两个月的事,基本上有拨动, 但很小。
2007年, 开始降, 底步在8千延期时达到。 当时是人心慌慌, 心理因素造就了
价格。 不过底部的形成不是一两个月的事,基本上有拨动, 但很小。
k*a
5 楼
俺倒是觉得假如美元不继续大规模恶性贬值,那么房价将会真正开始下降
c*o
6 楼
不是说还有至少25%的降幅吗
c*o
22 楼
好吧,那老夫也来乱砍:不到十年大学毕业的起薪就是1百万
u*d
23 楼
if you believe this time is different.
1n 2000, people believed in NEW Economy (this time is different) and the
stock market wouldn't crash..
in 2005, peole believed in perpetual house value appreciation(this time is
different), economy wouldn't crash...
in 2011, people believed in Fed printing unlimted amount of "money"(this
time is different), and the economy and stock market won't crash...
Just tell me one example in human history, only one, that a bubble didn't
burst nastely.
【在 c****o 的大作中提到】
: 好吧,那老夫也来乱砍:不到十年大学毕业的起薪就是1百万
1n 2000, people believed in NEW Economy (this time is different) and the
stock market wouldn't crash..
in 2005, peole believed in perpetual house value appreciation(this time is
different), economy wouldn't crash...
in 2011, people believed in Fed printing unlimted amount of "money"(this
time is different), and the economy and stock market won't crash...
Just tell me one example in human history, only one, that a bubble didn't
burst nastely.
【在 c****o 的大作中提到】
: 好吧,那老夫也来乱砍:不到十年大学毕业的起薪就是1百万
f*x
24 楼
我们这里最近好像银行在出房,两年前35、6万的房子,现在就27、8万。
u*d
27 楼
google "greenspan put". When that put is expired, it is not hard to envision
a lower low. we are living at borrowed time. I admire Fed/Big Ben greatly.
They acted like a giant in a film to hold the door open so as more people
can escape when the ship is sinking. The question is how long they can hold
that door.
【在 k***n 的大作中提到】
: this time they created a currency bubble
: didnt you see all the commodities have been rising on the liquidity sea?
a lower low. we are living at borrowed time. I admire Fed/Big Ben greatly.
They acted like a giant in a film to hold the door open so as more people
can escape when the ship is sinking. The question is how long they can hold
that door.
【在 k***n 的大作中提到】
: this time they created a currency bubble
: didnt you see all the commodities have been rising on the liquidity sea?
u*d
28 楼
[zt]
"美国国债收益率超过6%只是时间问题,有可能在2012年就会实现。届时,美国政府债
务将达16万亿美元。按6%的利率计算,光支付利息就将近1万亿美元。美国政府收入目
前为2万亿美元。也许通胀将使收入增至2.5万亿美元。如果一国政府的债务利息占其收
入的40%,很难想象它还能如何运作。一旦债券市场恢复正常,美国财政形势将会失控
。如果市场意识到这一点,由于担心联邦政府有破产的风险,债市就会大幅下跌。由此
产生的利率飙升也会不断自我强化。"
More QEs to push down yield? see what happend after QE2.
envision
hold
【在 u****d 的大作中提到】
: google "greenspan put". When that put is expired, it is not hard to envision
: a lower low. we are living at borrowed time. I admire Fed/Big Ben greatly.
: They acted like a giant in a film to hold the door open so as more people
: can escape when the ship is sinking. The question is how long they can hold
: that door.
"美国国债收益率超过6%只是时间问题,有可能在2012年就会实现。届时,美国政府债
务将达16万亿美元。按6%的利率计算,光支付利息就将近1万亿美元。美国政府收入目
前为2万亿美元。也许通胀将使收入增至2.5万亿美元。如果一国政府的债务利息占其收
入的40%,很难想象它还能如何运作。一旦债券市场恢复正常,美国财政形势将会失控
。如果市场意识到这一点,由于担心联邦政府有破产的风险,债市就会大幅下跌。由此
产生的利率飙升也会不断自我强化。"
More QEs to push down yield? see what happend after QE2.
envision
hold
【在 u****d 的大作中提到】
: google "greenspan put". When that put is expired, it is not hard to envision
: a lower low. we are living at borrowed time. I admire Fed/Big Ben greatly.
: They acted like a giant in a film to hold the door open so as more people
: can escape when the ship is sinking. The question is how long they can hold
: that door.
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