r*r
2 楼
【 以下文字转载自 SanFrancisco 讨论区 】
发信人: rcam (八戒悟空), 信区: SanFrancisco
标 题: Re: Intel的东进与ARM的西征(5)
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Thu Jan 10 18:26:52 2013, 美东)
Very informative post from yahoo finance board:
http://finance.yahoo.com/mbview/threadview/?&bn=23a9aaae-3c87-3
Re: Why is anybody buying here
by mark_templeton_99 . Jan 9, 2013 10:42 PM . Permalink
Ashraf,
I have read your articles and message posts and think that you are a good
writer. However, there is a lot more to business success than technology
leadership.
When Intel beat out Motorola and others for leadership in the 16 bit
microprocessor space (well before your time) they did not have the best
technology at all. In fact the 8088 and 8086 were very awkward architectures
and that awkward legacy continues to this day. Also, at that time (roughly
1982), you could hardly consider Intel to be a process leader by any stretch
of the imagination.
Intel won the PC market by outstanding marketing, customer relationships,
development tool support and most importantly their win of the processor
socket in the original IBM PC. The rest is history and Intel has worked
their position remarkably well. Believe me, their dominance at that time was
not the result of a superior product technology (not even close).
ARM has invented a good processor and a far, far better way to do business.
You need to understand the value of this and the legitimate and lasting
leadership that can come from business model and market position. Your
defense of Intel simply on the basis of a theoretical technology advantage
misses the point and does not reflect the way that technology companies
actually win and hold markets.
During the history of Intel, there have been several processor/manufacturing
combinations that were at the time better than the Intel offering. Sun
SPARC, IBM Power PC and even early MIPS come to mind. In spite of their
technical excellence, none of these companies could compete with Intel's
foothold in PC clones, so they passed into obscurity. Today, ARM has that
market position, ecosystem, etc. equivalent in the mobile space.
Intel may have what it takes to take on ARM, but it will not be based on
technology alone. You need to start looking at their progress and approach
on other, less tangible factors. Also, winning for Intel isn't about taking
on ARM, but about taking on the 1,000 or so companies that are ARM licensees
. The variety, depth, selection, price points and technical excellence from
these companies is truly staggering. I know Intel is great, but not even a
giant can compete with an onslaught this large and varied.
A huge problem that Intel faces is one of business reputation. Companies
know what will happen to their margins if they base their businesses on
Intel technology. Intel caused complete commoditization in the PC space and
potential customers know to expect nothing less in the mobile space. In
other words, if Intel is allowed to build a strong market position, everyone
knows how that story ends and it is not pretty (for anyone but Intel).
I also think that you are pushing your Intel position a little too hard to
be taken seriously. You must be really long Intel or really short ARM.
I like to read unbiased, thoughtful commentary and criticism. Your position
has become so blindly biased that it is no longer helpful and can not be
taken seriously. You are clearly smarter than this and I hope that as you
learn, you will become a more thoughtful and helpful commentator.
Full disclosure: long ARM. Have been long Intel in the past -- this is just
not their time.
All the Best,
Mark
发信人: rcam (八戒悟空), 信区: SanFrancisco
标 题: Re: Intel的东进与ARM的西征(5)
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Thu Jan 10 18:26:52 2013, 美东)
Very informative post from yahoo finance board:
http://finance.yahoo.com/mbview/threadview/?&bn=23a9aaae-3c87-3
Re: Why is anybody buying here
by mark_templeton_99 . Jan 9, 2013 10:42 PM . Permalink
Ashraf,
I have read your articles and message posts and think that you are a good
writer. However, there is a lot more to business success than technology
leadership.
When Intel beat out Motorola and others for leadership in the 16 bit
microprocessor space (well before your time) they did not have the best
technology at all. In fact the 8088 and 8086 were very awkward architectures
and that awkward legacy continues to this day. Also, at that time (roughly
1982), you could hardly consider Intel to be a process leader by any stretch
of the imagination.
Intel won the PC market by outstanding marketing, customer relationships,
development tool support and most importantly their win of the processor
socket in the original IBM PC. The rest is history and Intel has worked
their position remarkably well. Believe me, their dominance at that time was
not the result of a superior product technology (not even close).
ARM has invented a good processor and a far, far better way to do business.
You need to understand the value of this and the legitimate and lasting
leadership that can come from business model and market position. Your
defense of Intel simply on the basis of a theoretical technology advantage
misses the point and does not reflect the way that technology companies
actually win and hold markets.
During the history of Intel, there have been several processor/manufacturing
combinations that were at the time better than the Intel offering. Sun
SPARC, IBM Power PC and even early MIPS come to mind. In spite of their
technical excellence, none of these companies could compete with Intel's
foothold in PC clones, so they passed into obscurity. Today, ARM has that
market position, ecosystem, etc. equivalent in the mobile space.
Intel may have what it takes to take on ARM, but it will not be based on
technology alone. You need to start looking at their progress and approach
on other, less tangible factors. Also, winning for Intel isn't about taking
on ARM, but about taking on the 1,000 or so companies that are ARM licensees
. The variety, depth, selection, price points and technical excellence from
these companies is truly staggering. I know Intel is great, but not even a
giant can compete with an onslaught this large and varied.
A huge problem that Intel faces is one of business reputation. Companies
know what will happen to their margins if they base their businesses on
Intel technology. Intel caused complete commoditization in the PC space and
potential customers know to expect nothing less in the mobile space. In
other words, if Intel is allowed to build a strong market position, everyone
knows how that story ends and it is not pretty (for anyone but Intel).
I also think that you are pushing your Intel position a little too hard to
be taken seriously. You must be really long Intel or really short ARM.
I like to read unbiased, thoughtful commentary and criticism. Your position
has become so blindly biased that it is no longer helpful and can not be
taken seriously. You are clearly smarter than this and I hope that as you
learn, you will become a more thoughtful and helpful commentator.
Full disclosure: long ARM. Have been long Intel in the past -- this is just
not their time.
All the Best,
Mark
N*E
3 楼
HD, Lows, and costco
v*e
4 楼
科普一下ARM的模式跟intel的有啥不一样吧。这个文章里说的采用intel模式最后只能
是Intel一个赢家
【在 r*****r 的大作中提到】
: 【 以下文字转载自 SanFrancisco 讨论区 】
: 发信人: rcam (八戒悟空), 信区: SanFrancisco
: 标 题: Re: Intel的东进与ARM的西征(5)
: 发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Thu Jan 10 18:26:52 2013, 美东)
: Very informative post from yahoo finance board:
: http://finance.yahoo.com/mbview/threadview/?&bn=23a9aaae-3c87-3
: Re: Why is anybody buying here
: by mark_templeton_99 . Jan 9, 2013 10:42 PM . Permalink
: Ashraf,
: I have read your articles and message posts and think that you are a good
是Intel一个赢家
【在 r*****r 的大作中提到】
: 【 以下文字转载自 SanFrancisco 讨论区 】
: 发信人: rcam (八戒悟空), 信区: SanFrancisco
: 标 题: Re: Intel的东进与ARM的西征(5)
: 发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Thu Jan 10 18:26:52 2013, 美东)
: Very informative post from yahoo finance board:
: http://finance.yahoo.com/mbview/threadview/?&bn=23a9aaae-3c87-3
: Re: Why is anybody buying here
: by mark_templeton_99 . Jan 9, 2013 10:42 PM . Permalink
: Ashraf,
: I have read your articles and message posts and think that you are a good
e*t
5 楼
找色温高的cfl。一直到几年前我都还是更喜欢白光，现在觉得黄光更好。
【在 b*****a 的大作中提到】
: 如题。请问美国是否有类似国内节能灯的那种白色灯泡卖呀？
: 感谢您的回复！
【在 b*****a 的大作中提到】
: 如题。请问美国是否有类似国内节能灯的那种白色灯泡卖呀？
: 感谢您的回复！
s*k
6 楼
ARM has a very loose license term for their core. You can have architecture
license to design your own ARM compatible processor, like Qualcomm, Apple,
or you can simply license their own core either in RTL or hard IPs. It
leaves a lot of space for companies to re-invent. ARM is not selling their
own products as a chip, which is not in a competitor situation. Intel is
selling their chips. Any licensee like AMD will be in the direct competitor
position to Intel. Intel in the end will take all of its efforts to win the
war and Intel does have a huge advantage of process and integration.
license to design your own ARM compatible processor, like Qualcomm, Apple,
or you can simply license their own core either in RTL or hard IPs. It
leaves a lot of space for companies to re-invent. ARM is not selling their
own products as a chip, which is not in a competitor situation. Intel is
selling their chips. Any licensee like AMD will be in the direct competitor
position to Intel. Intel in the end will take all of its efforts to win the
war and Intel does have a huge advantage of process and integration.
f*i
7 楼
看书的时候，黄点好
【在 e********t 的大作中提到】
: 找色温高的cfl。一直到几年前我都还是更喜欢白光，现在觉得黄光更好。
【在 e********t 的大作中提到】
: 找色温高的cfl。一直到几年前我都还是更喜欢白光，现在觉得黄光更好。
r*r
8 楼
今天三星宣布放弃在美国市场卖基于WindowsRT/ARM的tablet对于intel是个很大的利好
消息。
architecture
competitor
the
【在 s***k 的大作中提到】
: ARM has a very loose license term for their core. You can have architecture
: license to design your own ARM compatible processor, like Qualcomm, Apple,
: or you can simply license their own core either in RTL or hard IPs. It
: leaves a lot of space for companies to re-invent. ARM is not selling their
: own products as a chip, which is not in a competitor situation. Intel is
: selling their chips. Any licensee like AMD will be in the direct competitor
: position to Intel. Intel in the end will take all of its efforts to win the
: war and Intel does have a huge advantage of process and integration.
消息。
architecture
competitor
the
【在 s***k 的大作中提到】
: ARM has a very loose license term for their core. You can have architecture
: license to design your own ARM compatible processor, like Qualcomm, Apple,
: or you can simply license their own core either in RTL or hard IPs. It
: leaves a lot of space for companies to re-invent. ARM is not selling their
: own products as a chip, which is not in a competitor situation. Intel is
: selling their chips. Any licensee like AMD will be in the direct competitor
: position to Intel. Intel in the end will take all of its efforts to win the
: war and Intel does have a huge advantage of process and integration.
C*r
9 楼
costco有那种=75w的节能灯，紫色盒子，特别白，还真不适应。
【在 b*****a 的大作中提到】
: 如题。请问美国是否有类似国内节能灯的那种白色灯泡卖呀？
: 感谢您的回复！
【在 b*****a 的大作中提到】
: 如题。请问美国是否有类似国内节能灯的那种白色灯泡卖呀？
: 感谢您的回复！
s*k
10 楼
RT is just a gadget. MS used this more for the marketing purposes. There are
not much of software support or legacy. The main thing is still x86. It can
have tons of legacy software and tools.
【在 r*****r 的大作中提到】
: 今天三星宣布放弃在美国市场卖基于WindowsRT/ARM的tablet对于intel是个很大的利好
: 消息。
:
: architecture
: competitor
: the
not much of software support or legacy. The main thing is still x86. It can
have tons of legacy software and tools.
【在 r*****r 的大作中提到】
: 今天三星宣布放弃在美国市场卖基于WindowsRT/ARM的tablet对于intel是个很大的利好
: 消息。
:
: architecture
: competitor
: the
p*r
11 楼
The comments from Mark is very true.
Intel may come back to get some tablet market share or even mobile phone
market. However, the high margin and high profit days for Intel is gone, at
least in the mobile space because ARM is good enough for much lower cost. If
Intel wants the market, then Intel has to offer the same price for the
better performance, or lower price for the same performance(assume the power
consumption is in the same level) because the market now belongs to ARM
architecture. Intel has to offer some incentive to convince others to switch
.
Intel may come back to get some tablet market share or even mobile phone
market. However, the high margin and high profit days for Intel is gone, at
least in the mobile space because ARM is good enough for much lower cost. If
Intel wants the market, then Intel has to offer the same price for the
better performance, or lower price for the same performance(assume the power
consumption is in the same level) because the market now belongs to ARM
architecture. Intel has to offer some incentive to convince others to switch
.
s*v
12 楼
对，完全同意。
有不少人，因为Intel的先进技术和工艺而对Intel抱有一丝幻想，是危险而愚蠢的，技
术是重要但不是最重要的。过去Intel的成功在于
1. x86架构垄断和windows平台更换成本；
2. 他的biz model可以保证产能和成本
现在这两项全都没有了，甚至是intel是劣势
at
If
power
switch
【在 p*********r 的大作中提到】
: The comments from Mark is very true.
: Intel may come back to get some tablet market share or even mobile phone
: market. However, the high margin and high profit days for Intel is gone, at
: least in the mobile space because ARM is good enough for much lower cost. If
: Intel wants the market, then Intel has to offer the same price for the
: better performance, or lower price for the same performance(assume the power
: consumption is in the same level) because the market now belongs to ARM
: architecture. Intel has to offer some incentive to convince others to switch
: .
有不少人，因为Intel的先进技术和工艺而对Intel抱有一丝幻想，是危险而愚蠢的，技
术是重要但不是最重要的。过去Intel的成功在于
1. x86架构垄断和windows平台更换成本；
2. 他的biz model可以保证产能和成本
现在这两项全都没有了，甚至是intel是劣势
at
If
power
switch
【在 p*********r 的大作中提到】
: The comments from Mark is very true.
: Intel may come back to get some tablet market share or even mobile phone
: market. However, the high margin and high profit days for Intel is gone, at
: least in the mobile space because ARM is good enough for much lower cost. If
: Intel wants the market, then Intel has to offer the same price for the
: better performance, or lower price for the same performance(assume the power
: consumption is in the same level) because the market now belongs to ARM
: architecture. Intel has to offer some incentive to convince others to switch
: .
c*9
13 楼
Legacy 就是鸡肋，不适合触摸。
are
can
【在 s***k 的大作中提到】
: RT is just a gadget. MS used this more for the marketing purposes. There are
: not much of software support or legacy. The main thing is still x86. It can
: have tons of legacy software and tools.
are
can
【在 s***k 的大作中提到】
: RT is just a gadget. MS used this more for the marketing purposes. There are
: not much of software support or legacy. The main thing is still x86. It can
: have tons of legacy software and tools.
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