Apple's 64 Bit Plan to Finish Off Android# PDA - 掌中宝
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http://www.semiwiki.com/forum/content/2785-apple-s-64-bit-plan-
Many people are underestimating the speed and the magnitude of the
transition that is about to take place with the tandem rollout of iOS 7 and
the 64 bit A7 processor. While the former provides a nice visual upgrade to
the entire ecosystem the latter will be used to collect accolades and drive
application development that will result in a complete, robust 64 bit
environment for all Apple users by next Labor Day at the latest. When this
transition completes, what happens to mobile, 32 bit computing? The likely
guess is that it withers, taking many players with it. At this moment,
roadmaps across the globe are being torn up as development teams must aim
for a more aggressive market place with not much time to execute. The clock
has started ticking until Apple goes full 64 bits by this time next year.
As a measure of comparison, the 286 to 386 and the 32 bit Pentium class to
64 bit x86 Xeon server processor transitions took roughly 5 years in
hardware terms alone. When Andy Grove unleashed the 386 Red X advertising
campaign in 1990 there were only a handful of apps that ran in 32 bit mode.
The folks in Redmond didn’t get around to a full blown 32-bit operating
system until the launch of Windows NT in July 1996. It makes one appreciate
what Apple is trying to accomplish over this coming year with a user base
and software community that is over an order of magnitude larger. How will
Google, Samsung, Microsoft, Intel and others respond to this coordinated
drive to leave behind all that is 32 bit? All of the above named companies
certainly have money to stay in the game for the long run. It is the smaller
ARM mobile chip vendors that are most at risk. It is possible to envision a
scenario where all the players scatter to a different corner of the market.
Microsoft, for one, will likely get closer to Intel in order to save
corporate but in doing so may underfund Nokia for a successful consumer push
. Google could decide to make peace with Apple on smartphones and
concentrate on its wearables while letting Android lag in forked 32-bit land
which may be fine for Amazon but what about Samsung and the other China
players?
The common threat that Apple imposes with its 64-bit processor and iOS
platform has to have disparate mobile players considering alliances so that
they can close the technology and capability gap by the Fall of 2014. Apple
’s rollout was intended to shock their competitors with the primary goal of
testing how fragile the Android market is when the future is incremental.
The mobile TAM could very likely consolidate around Apple at the high end
and China clones at the low end with Samsung stretched try to serve all.
Without a concerted alliance with Google can Samsung really force Apple into
single digit market share like Microsoft imposed on them in the 1990s. It
is doubtful.
One could paint a scenario in the late summer of 2014 where Android phones
are relegated to the sub $100 space along with 7” tablets. Larger screens
and improved cameras would not be able to overcome the “32 bit” processor
and allow for pricing to even approach whatever becomes the equivalent
iphone 5C next year. This is partially subjective but it is based on what I
observed in the PC market in the 1990s. Intel consistently obsoleted their
processors within a matter of months so that competitors could not gain a
profitable foothold by offering something equivalent. The one caveat was
during periods of allocation. Thus AMD and the cloners were stuck selling
processors for an average price of $60-$70 while Intel enjoyed prices that
were on average 3-4 times higher.
The sucking sound you will hear is Apple leveraging technology with a
branding campaign that will create separation in the marketplace. Expect to
see Apple impose a price floor that is much higher than the ceiling of
competitors. You will know when capitulation begins when the subject
invariably turns to mobile companies spending more time focusing on the
future promise of tens of billions of IoT devices.
Many people are underestimating the speed and the magnitude of the
transition that is about to take place with the tandem rollout of iOS 7 and
the 64 bit A7 processor. While the former provides a nice visual upgrade to
the entire ecosystem the latter will be used to collect accolades and drive
application development that will result in a complete, robust 64 bit
environment for all Apple users by next Labor Day at the latest. When this
transition completes, what happens to mobile, 32 bit computing? The likely
guess is that it withers, taking many players with it. At this moment,
roadmaps across the globe are being torn up as development teams must aim
for a more aggressive market place with not much time to execute. The clock
has started ticking until Apple goes full 64 bits by this time next year.
As a measure of comparison, the 286 to 386 and the 32 bit Pentium class to
64 bit x86 Xeon server processor transitions took roughly 5 years in
hardware terms alone. When Andy Grove unleashed the 386 Red X advertising
campaign in 1990 there were only a handful of apps that ran in 32 bit mode.
The folks in Redmond didn’t get around to a full blown 32-bit operating
system until the launch of Windows NT in July 1996. It makes one appreciate
what Apple is trying to accomplish over this coming year with a user base
and software community that is over an order of magnitude larger. How will
Google, Samsung, Microsoft, Intel and others respond to this coordinated
drive to leave behind all that is 32 bit? All of the above named companies
certainly have money to stay in the game for the long run. It is the smaller
ARM mobile chip vendors that are most at risk. It is possible to envision a
scenario where all the players scatter to a different corner of the market.
Microsoft, for one, will likely get closer to Intel in order to save
corporate but in doing so may underfund Nokia for a successful consumer push
. Google could decide to make peace with Apple on smartphones and
concentrate on its wearables while letting Android lag in forked 32-bit land
which may be fine for Amazon but what about Samsung and the other China
players?
The common threat that Apple imposes with its 64-bit processor and iOS
platform has to have disparate mobile players considering alliances so that
they can close the technology and capability gap by the Fall of 2014. Apple
’s rollout was intended to shock their competitors with the primary goal of
testing how fragile the Android market is when the future is incremental.
The mobile TAM could very likely consolidate around Apple at the high end
and China clones at the low end with Samsung stretched try to serve all.
Without a concerted alliance with Google can Samsung really force Apple into
single digit market share like Microsoft imposed on them in the 1990s. It
is doubtful.
One could paint a scenario in the late summer of 2014 where Android phones
are relegated to the sub $100 space along with 7” tablets. Larger screens
and improved cameras would not be able to overcome the “32 bit” processor
and allow for pricing to even approach whatever becomes the equivalent
iphone 5C next year. This is partially subjective but it is based on what I
observed in the PC market in the 1990s. Intel consistently obsoleted their
processors within a matter of months so that competitors could not gain a
profitable foothold by offering something equivalent. The one caveat was
during periods of allocation. Thus AMD and the cloners were stuck selling
processors for an average price of $60-$70 while Intel enjoyed prices that
were on average 3-4 times higher.
The sucking sound you will hear is Apple leveraging technology with a
branding campaign that will create separation in the marketplace. Expect to
see Apple impose a price floor that is much higher than the ceiling of
competitors. You will know when capitulation begins when the subject
invariably turns to mobile companies spending more time focusing on the
future promise of tens of billions of IoT devices.
