n*r
2 楼
看到携程的虐童案，闹得沸沸扬扬。只能说在中国每天都会虐童的事件发生，我们看到
的也许惨烈，但现实的惨烈程度会远远的超出我们的想象。
幼儿园虐童案是时有发生，一经报道便是一边倒的舆论，我看了视频，真的是很压抑和
恐惧，如果发生在我孩子身上，真是杀人的心都会有了。前段时间最流行的一句话是，
你的贫穷限制了你的想象，但现在变成了你的善良也限制你的想象。你不会知道这些为
人师表的人怎么会下这么重的手。
其实远不止这些老师，更大的虐童，施虐的现象是在家庭中，而且家庭中的施虐永远都
是打着为你好的名义。记得再国内自己亲眼看到的一幕，在逛商场的时候，一个有两三
岁的女孩子尿了裤子，没有看到母亲的安慰，母亲反而是用手去掐女孩的大腿，一个劲
的说：让你不长记性，说过多少次了尿尿要给我说。那个小女孩哭的撕心裂肺的。很多
人都看过去，这位母亲说，你在哭，在哭我就不要你了，把你扔掉算了。我于心不忍，
上去劝说，这位母亲说，小孩就这样你不这样治一治她，她就不会长记性的。
在国内这不是第一次见到这样的事情，对于小孩子各种打骂，打骂我不反对，但是我们
的目的是让他们知道。所以说这样的孩子长大成人以后，我想他们在对待孩子的时候，
也绝对不会手软的。
的也许惨烈，但现实的惨烈程度会远远的超出我们的想象。
幼儿园虐童案是时有发生，一经报道便是一边倒的舆论，我看了视频，真的是很压抑和
恐惧，如果发生在我孩子身上，真是杀人的心都会有了。前段时间最流行的一句话是，
你的贫穷限制了你的想象，但现在变成了你的善良也限制你的想象。你不会知道这些为
人师表的人怎么会下这么重的手。
其实远不止这些老师，更大的虐童，施虐的现象是在家庭中，而且家庭中的施虐永远都
是打着为你好的名义。记得再国内自己亲眼看到的一幕，在逛商场的时候，一个有两三
岁的女孩子尿了裤子，没有看到母亲的安慰，母亲反而是用手去掐女孩的大腿，一个劲
的说：让你不长记性，说过多少次了尿尿要给我说。那个小女孩哭的撕心裂肺的。很多
人都看过去，这位母亲说，你在哭，在哭我就不要你了，把你扔掉算了。我于心不忍，
上去劝说，这位母亲说，小孩就这样你不这样治一治她，她就不会长记性的。
在国内这不是第一次见到这样的事情，对于小孩子各种打骂，打骂我不反对，但是我们
的目的是让他们知道。所以说这样的孩子长大成人以后，我想他们在对待孩子的时候，
也绝对不会手软的。
i*w
3 楼
【 以下文字转载自 Immigration 讨论区 】
发信人: CSDN (隔壁赵大爷), 信区: Immigration
标 题: Check-In with DOS’s Charlie Oppenheim (6-21-19) 再见 2019 财年
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Fri Jun 21 19:46:46 2019, 美东)
Family-Based Preference Categories
The across the board advancement to “current” of the F-2A category is
perhaps the most noteworthy update on the family-based side of the July 2019
Visa Bulletin. This advancement is attributable to a failure of applicants
to respond to the NVC Agent of Choice letters. Interestingly, although the
Final Action Date for this category is current, the Date for Filing is March
8, 2019. This was done to avoid completely opening the floodgates to
consular filings in this category. Charlie noted that moving the Final
Action Dates to current is intended to spur responses to the NVC letters but
is not expected to have any impact on number usage for the current fiscal
year (FY2019).
Movements in the Final Action Dates are often made slowly and carefully for
some time in order to test demand before making any dramatic movements. To
better understand why these movements are made, Charlie provides a “Party
Invitation Analogy.” Moving the Final Action Date is like planning for a
party. You may prepare a certain amount of food for your guests. However,
when only a few people respond that they are coming to the party, you keep
inviting more and more guests. Then, at the last minute, everyone you
invited decides to attend the party and you don’t have enough food for
everyone. That is analogous to a gradual and then rapid advancement in Final
Action Dates followed by a flood of demand that requires a retrogression.
This is what Charlie believes could potentially happen at some point after
making this category current.
Employment-Based Preference Categories
General Trends and Observations:
In the July 2019 Visa Bulletin, Charlie modifies previous projections for EB
-1, EB-2 and EB-3 Worldwide, based on new data received from USCIS. This
data reflects a rapid increase in actual demand across these categories that
has materialized over the past 2.5 weeks, and projections of continued
higher levels of demand during the summer than had been experienced through
mid-May.
EB-1:
The Final Action Date for EB-1 Worldwide (including EB-1 El Salvador,
Guatemala and Honduras, EB-1 Mexico, EB-1 Philippines, and EB-1 Vietnam)
remains the same at April 22, 2018. Furthermore, Charlie predicts that there
will be retrogression in this category as early as August 2019. If demand
trends allow, the goal is that the Final Action Date in this category will
return to the current level (i.e., April 22, 2018) in October 2019.
The Final Action Date for EB-1 India remains the same at January 1, 2015. No
further forward movement will occur in this category during FY2019. If
possible, Charlie’s goal is for EB-1 India to return to a Final Action Date
of February 22, 2017 in October 2019.
EB-1 China will advance approximately two months to May 8, 2017 in July. No
additional forward movement is expected in this category for the remainder
of FY2019. This preference may also become subject to the corrective action
that Charlie mentions above for EB-1 Worldwide. The reason why EB-1 China
was able to advance in July is that, unlike India, China has otherwise
unused numbers in the EB-4 category that “fall up” to EB-1 to allow
additional number usage. In contrast, there is sufficient EB-4 India number
usage which restricts the ability to have unused numbers “fall up” to EB-1
India.
Charlie expects that going forward EB-1 Worldwide, EB-1 China, and EB-1
India will have distinct Final Action Dates. He also expects that the Final
Action Dates for EB-1 China and EB-1 India will differ, with both lagging
behind the Final Action Date for EB-1 Worldwide.
EB-2:
The week prior to Memorial Day, Charlie started receiving a different demand
pattern from USCIS than what he had received in recent months. During this
time, the demand in the employment-based categories began to pick up, with
the daily totals increasing quickly. For example, through May 21, 2019,
approximately 1,800 visa numbers were used in the EB-2 category, and between
May 22, 2019 and May 31, 2019, another 1,300 numbers were used. The June
2019 pace of demand continues to be higher than earlier in FY2019. This is
in combination with USCIS’s projected high summer usage.
Based on this data, whereas Charlie previously believed EB-2 Worldwide might
remain current through FY2019, this no longer remains the case. Charlie now
anticipates that this category will have a Final Action Date imposed during
FY19, and possibly as early as August 2019. At this time, he is unable to
predict how far back the date imposed might be. As Charlie knows how many
numbers remain available and how many USCIS predicts will materialize, he
will continue to watch the demand in this category very closely. While it is
possible that the Final Action Date for EB-2 Worldwide will hold in August
2019 and be limited to September 2019, AILA members are cautioned to file
any current cases through the month of July 2019, as it is unclear whether
these priority dates will still be current in August 2019. Charlie’s goal
is, if possible, to return the Final Action Date for this category to
current in October 2019
In July, EB-2 China advances three months to November 1, 2016. Charlie
predicts that this category may share a Final Action Date with the EB-2
Worldwide category, if corrective action is required for EB-2 Worldwide in
August 2019.
EB-2 India advances 5 days to April 24, 2009 in July. Charlie predicts that
this category will continue to advance at a pace of up to one week until the
limit is reached.
EB-3:
As with EB-2, Charlie is starting to see heavy demand in the EB-3 category,
in addition to USCIS projections for additional demand. This demand is
causing similar changes in the projections for this category.
Whereas Charlie had been predicting that EB-3 Worldwide (including EB-3 El
Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras and EB-3 Mexico) seemed likely to remain
current through FY2019, that is no longer the case. Charlie has now modified
his prediction and expects retrogression at some point during this fiscal
year, perhaps as early as August 2019.
EB-3 China advances 3.5 months to January 1, 2016 in July, and EB-3 China
Other Workers advances about two months to November 22, 2007. Charlie
continues to predict advancement of up to several months for the EB-3
category.
The Final Action Date for EB-3 India continues to hold at July 1, 2009, with
little if any forward movement predicted in the immediate future. Last year
, action on all of the pre-adjudicated EB-3 India numbers from the 2007
Adjustment of Status filings were finalized. Charlie’s only visibility to
the demand in this category comes from new filings, which are coming in at a
steady pace. Part of the reason that this category was allowed to advance
is that Charlie assumed that the rest of the world numbers would not be used
, as had been the case for the past five fiscal years. However, this year
there are no extra EB-3 numbers available from other countries to transfer
to EB-3 India.Therefore, in order to limit future use of numbers, any
required corrective action for EB-3 Worldwide will also impact the Final
Action Date for EB-3 India.
As recently predicted, EB-3 Philippines will become current in July 2019,
advancing from the June 2019 Final Action Date of November 1, 2018. However,
Charlie expects this category to reflect the EB-3 Worldwide date, meaning
that there may be a short window for applicants to file between now and the
end of July 2019, when the Final Action Date for EB-3 Worldwide may
retrogress.
EB-4:
As noted in the last column, EB-4 will remain current in July 2019 for most
countries, with the exception of El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras and
Mexico, which advance to July 1, 2016 in July, due to the use of otherwise
unused numbers from other countries. These countries should hold at this
Final Action Date through FY2019.
Demand for EB-4 India numbers has dropped off and the pace of usage has
slowed. It still appears likely that this category will remain current
during FY2019.
EB-5:
In July 2019, a Final Action Date of May 1, 2017 is imposed for EB-5 India,
which had until now been current. Charlie expects EB-5 India to continue to
be subject to a Final Action Date moving forward. The EB-5 China Final
Action date will hold at October 1, 2014, and EB-5 Vietnam will hold at a
Final Action Date of October 1, 2016. All other countries remain current for
this category. In August and September 2019, EB-5 India and EB-5 Vietnam
are expected reflect the same Final Action Date as EB-5 China.
来源：https://www.shusterman.com/visa-bulletin-predictions/
发信人: CSDN (隔壁赵大爷), 信区: Immigration
标 题: Check-In with DOS’s Charlie Oppenheim (6-21-19) 再见 2019 财年
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Fri Jun 21 19:46:46 2019, 美东)
Family-Based Preference Categories
The across the board advancement to “current” of the F-2A category is
perhaps the most noteworthy update on the family-based side of the July 2019
Visa Bulletin. This advancement is attributable to a failure of applicants
to respond to the NVC Agent of Choice letters. Interestingly, although the
Final Action Date for this category is current, the Date for Filing is March
8, 2019. This was done to avoid completely opening the floodgates to
consular filings in this category. Charlie noted that moving the Final
Action Dates to current is intended to spur responses to the NVC letters but
is not expected to have any impact on number usage for the current fiscal
year (FY2019).
Movements in the Final Action Dates are often made slowly and carefully for
some time in order to test demand before making any dramatic movements. To
better understand why these movements are made, Charlie provides a “Party
Invitation Analogy.” Moving the Final Action Date is like planning for a
party. You may prepare a certain amount of food for your guests. However,
when only a few people respond that they are coming to the party, you keep
inviting more and more guests. Then, at the last minute, everyone you
invited decides to attend the party and you don’t have enough food for
everyone. That is analogous to a gradual and then rapid advancement in Final
Action Dates followed by a flood of demand that requires a retrogression.
This is what Charlie believes could potentially happen at some point after
making this category current.
Employment-Based Preference Categories
General Trends and Observations:
In the July 2019 Visa Bulletin, Charlie modifies previous projections for EB
-1, EB-2 and EB-3 Worldwide, based on new data received from USCIS. This
data reflects a rapid increase in actual demand across these categories that
has materialized over the past 2.5 weeks, and projections of continued
higher levels of demand during the summer than had been experienced through
mid-May.
EB-1:
The Final Action Date for EB-1 Worldwide (including EB-1 El Salvador,
Guatemala and Honduras, EB-1 Mexico, EB-1 Philippines, and EB-1 Vietnam)
remains the same at April 22, 2018. Furthermore, Charlie predicts that there
will be retrogression in this category as early as August 2019. If demand
trends allow, the goal is that the Final Action Date in this category will
return to the current level (i.e., April 22, 2018) in October 2019.
The Final Action Date for EB-1 India remains the same at January 1, 2015. No
further forward movement will occur in this category during FY2019. If
possible, Charlie’s goal is for EB-1 India to return to a Final Action Date
of February 22, 2017 in October 2019.
EB-1 China will advance approximately two months to May 8, 2017 in July. No
additional forward movement is expected in this category for the remainder
of FY2019. This preference may also become subject to the corrective action
that Charlie mentions above for EB-1 Worldwide. The reason why EB-1 China
was able to advance in July is that, unlike India, China has otherwise
unused numbers in the EB-4 category that “fall up” to EB-1 to allow
additional number usage. In contrast, there is sufficient EB-4 India number
usage which restricts the ability to have unused numbers “fall up” to EB-1
India.
Charlie expects that going forward EB-1 Worldwide, EB-1 China, and EB-1
India will have distinct Final Action Dates. He also expects that the Final
Action Dates for EB-1 China and EB-1 India will differ, with both lagging
behind the Final Action Date for EB-1 Worldwide.
EB-2:
The week prior to Memorial Day, Charlie started receiving a different demand
pattern from USCIS than what he had received in recent months. During this
time, the demand in the employment-based categories began to pick up, with
the daily totals increasing quickly. For example, through May 21, 2019,
approximately 1,800 visa numbers were used in the EB-2 category, and between
May 22, 2019 and May 31, 2019, another 1,300 numbers were used. The June
2019 pace of demand continues to be higher than earlier in FY2019. This is
in combination with USCIS’s projected high summer usage.
Based on this data, whereas Charlie previously believed EB-2 Worldwide might
remain current through FY2019, this no longer remains the case. Charlie now
anticipates that this category will have a Final Action Date imposed during
FY19, and possibly as early as August 2019. At this time, he is unable to
predict how far back the date imposed might be. As Charlie knows how many
numbers remain available and how many USCIS predicts will materialize, he
will continue to watch the demand in this category very closely. While it is
possible that the Final Action Date for EB-2 Worldwide will hold in August
2019 and be limited to September 2019, AILA members are cautioned to file
any current cases through the month of July 2019, as it is unclear whether
these priority dates will still be current in August 2019. Charlie’s goal
is, if possible, to return the Final Action Date for this category to
current in October 2019
In July, EB-2 China advances three months to November 1, 2016. Charlie
predicts that this category may share a Final Action Date with the EB-2
Worldwide category, if corrective action is required for EB-2 Worldwide in
August 2019.
EB-2 India advances 5 days to April 24, 2009 in July. Charlie predicts that
this category will continue to advance at a pace of up to one week until the
limit is reached.
EB-3:
As with EB-2, Charlie is starting to see heavy demand in the EB-3 category,
in addition to USCIS projections for additional demand. This demand is
causing similar changes in the projections for this category.
Whereas Charlie had been predicting that EB-3 Worldwide (including EB-3 El
Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras and EB-3 Mexico) seemed likely to remain
current through FY2019, that is no longer the case. Charlie has now modified
his prediction and expects retrogression at some point during this fiscal
year, perhaps as early as August 2019.
EB-3 China advances 3.5 months to January 1, 2016 in July, and EB-3 China
Other Workers advances about two months to November 22, 2007. Charlie
continues to predict advancement of up to several months for the EB-3
category.
The Final Action Date for EB-3 India continues to hold at July 1, 2009, with
little if any forward movement predicted in the immediate future. Last year
, action on all of the pre-adjudicated EB-3 India numbers from the 2007
Adjustment of Status filings were finalized. Charlie’s only visibility to
the demand in this category comes from new filings, which are coming in at a
steady pace. Part of the reason that this category was allowed to advance
is that Charlie assumed that the rest of the world numbers would not be used
, as had been the case for the past five fiscal years. However, this year
there are no extra EB-3 numbers available from other countries to transfer
to EB-3 India.Therefore, in order to limit future use of numbers, any
required corrective action for EB-3 Worldwide will also impact the Final
Action Date for EB-3 India.
As recently predicted, EB-3 Philippines will become current in July 2019,
advancing from the June 2019 Final Action Date of November 1, 2018. However,
Charlie expects this category to reflect the EB-3 Worldwide date, meaning
that there may be a short window for applicants to file between now and the
end of July 2019, when the Final Action Date for EB-3 Worldwide may
retrogress.
EB-4:
As noted in the last column, EB-4 will remain current in July 2019 for most
countries, with the exception of El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras and
Mexico, which advance to July 1, 2016 in July, due to the use of otherwise
unused numbers from other countries. These countries should hold at this
Final Action Date through FY2019.
Demand for EB-4 India numbers has dropped off and the pace of usage has
slowed. It still appears likely that this category will remain current
during FY2019.
EB-5:
In July 2019, a Final Action Date of May 1, 2017 is imposed for EB-5 India,
which had until now been current. Charlie expects EB-5 India to continue to
be subject to a Final Action Date moving forward. The EB-5 China Final
Action date will hold at October 1, 2014, and EB-5 Vietnam will hold at a
Final Action Date of October 1, 2016. All other countries remain current for
this category. In August and September 2019, EB-5 India and EB-5 Vietnam
are expected reflect the same Final Action Date as EB-5 China.
来源：https://www.shusterman.com/visa-bulletin-predictions/
w*6
4 楼
用了几个月，死翘翘了。
i*w
5 楼
看来EB2C从下个月要和ROW一起退了，EB3C还能保持在退了的EB3 ROW之前
g*w
6 楼
你运气比我强多了，我的就三天就坏了。再也不买垃圾了。
x*n
7 楼
谢谢分享。
"EB3C还能保持在退了的EB3 ROW之前"
---
Charlie
continues to predict advancement of up to several months for the EB-3
category.
这个是不是也表明了在row之前，还能继续发visa number?我们还能在eb3继续绿
"EB3C还能保持在退了的EB3 ROW之前"
---
Charlie
continues to predict advancement of up to several months for the EB-3
category.
这个是不是也表明了在row之前，还能继续发visa number?我们还能在eb3继续绿
d*0
8 楼
只能接电脑usb冲。用大电流充电器冲必坏。
【在 g*****w 的大作中提到】
: 你运气比我强多了，我的就三天就坏了。再也不买垃圾了。
【在 g*****w 的大作中提到】
: 你运气比我强多了，我的就三天就坏了。再也不买垃圾了。
i*w
9 楼
我这么推测的。。哈哈哈。
【在 x****n 的大作中提到】
: 谢谢分享。
: "EB3C还能保持在退了的EB3 ROW之前"
: ---
: Charlie
: continues to predict advancement of up to several months for the EB-3
: category.
: 这个是不是也表明了在row之前，还能继续发visa number?我们还能在eb3继续绿
【在 x****n 的大作中提到】
: 谢谢分享。
: "EB3C还能保持在退了的EB3 ROW之前"
: ---
: Charlie
: continues to predict advancement of up to several months for the EB-3
: category.
: 这个是不是也表明了在row之前，还能继续发visa number?我们还能在eb3继续绿
w*6
10 楼
考，早看到这个就好了，我一直用大电流充电器
【在 d*****0 的大作中提到】
: 只能接电脑usb冲。用大电流充电器冲必坏。
【在 d*****0 的大作中提到】
: 只能接电脑usb冲。用大电流充电器冲必坏。
n*a
11 楼
这也侧面证明了ROW会退回2016年底/2017年初的样子，会影响到EB2但不影响EB3，因为
EB3进不了那么快
EB3进不了那么快
m*t
12 楼
79 rmb, 12$
K*t
13 楼
2016年底未入门PD表示很焦急
w*6
14 楼
便宜不是垃圾的借口，除非特别的目的，还是买最好的东西。过去凡是买便宜货的，结
果长期还是话了更多的钱，还不如一步到位。
我买小米手环的原因，只是用来当 silent alarm, 其他的都用不着。
【在 m*t 的大作中提到】
: 79 rmb, 12$
果长期还是话了更多的钱，还不如一步到位。
我买小米手环的原因，只是用来当 silent alarm, 其他的都用不着。
【在 m*t 的大作中提到】
: 79 rmb, 12$
m*e
15 楼
怎么推断ROW 会退回16年底的呢？16年10月的EB2，看到奥本这个发言有点慌啊。希望
排期别退，能7-8月进门。
【在 n******a 的大作中提到】
: 这也侧面证明了ROW会退回2016年底/2017年初的样子，会影响到EB2但不影响EB3，因为
: EB3进不了那么快
排期别退，能7-8月进门。
【在 n******a 的大作中提到】
: 这也侧面证明了ROW会退回2016年底/2017年初的样子，会影响到EB2但不影响EB3，因为
: EB3进不了那么快
a*e
16 楼
没事啊，接着iPad的没事
不过老批次有问题，电极接触不好
【在 d*****0 的大作中提到】
: 只能接电脑usb冲。用大电流充电器冲必坏。
不过老批次有问题，电极接触不好
【在 d*****0 的大作中提到】
: 只能接电脑usb冲。用大电流充电器冲必坏。
j*o
17 楼
四个月没了。。。。
g*w
18 楼
大款，补偿一下$19吧。Amazon买的正牌，三天，就三天，就歇了。再也不碰任何臭米
的东西。
【在 m*t 的大作中提到】
: 79 rmb, 12$
的东西。
【在 m*t 的大作中提到】
: 79 rmb, 12$
s*k
19 楼
预料之中啊 - 但愿10月新财年后继续稳步前进吧！
m*t
20 楼
3天就退了呗，坏的东西亚麻连回程运费都不收
【在 g*****w 的大作中提到】
: 大款，补偿一下$19吧。Amazon买的正牌，三天，就三天，就歇了。再也不碰任何臭米
: 的东西。
【在 g*****w 的大作中提到】
: 大款，补偿一下$19吧。Amazon买的正牌，三天，就三天，就歇了。再也不碰任何臭米
: 的东西。
a*8
21 楼
Several month 一般指几个月啊？
j*8
22 楼
要是推到15年 (比如），那即使新财年重新前进，从15年前进到17年还不知道得多久阿
。。
【在 s*****k 的大作中提到】
: 预料之中啊 - 但愿10月新财年后继续稳步前进吧！
。。
【在 s*****k 的大作中提到】
: 预料之中啊 - 但愿10月新财年后继续稳步前进吧！
i*w
23 楼
希望直接和ROW一样，C一下！
【在 j*****8 的大作中提到】
: 要是推到15年 (比如），那即使新财年重新前进，从15年前进到17年还不知道得多久阿
: 。。
【在 j*****8 的大作中提到】
: 要是推到15年 (比如），那即使新财年重新前进，从15年前进到17年还不知道得多久阿
: 。。
D*8
24 楼
哭一个，16年底还不知道要多久才能入门
m*e
25 楼
In previous years, it will come back to normal progression as new fiscal
year starts.
【在 D******8 的大作中提到】
: 哭一个，16年底还不知道要多久才能入门
year starts.
【在 D******8 的大作中提到】
: 哭一个，16年底还不知道要多久才能入门
K*t
26 楼
如果row退了， 是不是就是说eb2用完没名额了， 那为啥印度还能前进， 都没名额了
不也应该后退吗？
[在 iloveniw (hello_world_nan) 的大作中提到：]
:看来EB2C从下个月要和ROW一起退了，EB3C还能保持在退了的EB3 ROW之前
不也应该后退吗？
[在 iloveniw (hello_world_nan) 的大作中提到：]
:看来EB2C从下个月要和ROW一起退了，EB3C还能保持在退了的EB3 ROW之前
A*a
27 楼
说好的up to 4 months呢？除了骂人我无话可说 ：）
h*u
28 楼
中国前进和ROW倒退不矛盾啊。
【在 A*****a 的大作中提到】
: 说好的up to 4 months呢？除了骂人我无话可说 ：）
【在 A*****a 的大作中提到】
: 说好的up to 4 months呢？除了骂人我无话可说 ：）
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