Its hard to say if this is a good or a bad thing. There are a few factors
about the bill
that are not yet clear
Contentious Issues
1) Legalisation of undocumented.
2) Addition of 10000 Visas.
3) The fact that its only for Irish can also be an issue. (Depends on the
strength of Irish lobby)
1 & 2 above are killers and 1+2=DoA
Workaround through amendments
1) No relaxation in E-3 requirments
2) Sharing the E-3 Visa pool with Australians. Currently 2K-3k visas are
used by
Australians. If this bill passes then rest can go to Irish. This might not
have the same
intensity of opposition as addition of Visas except from the die hard anti-
immigrants and
other interest groups who may want to get a ride on the E-3 bus (which in
turn has
hitchhiked HR3012 trailer).
3) Elimination of E3-for-Irish provision altogether.
Dick Durbin & Patrick Leahy (two co-sponsors of S.1983) have Irish
connection.
Dick's father is Irish and Leahy's grandparents came from Ireland so they
may
feel strongly about E-3 provision for the Irish. In the email response from
Dick
to a HR 3012 supporter, he has put strong emphasis on Diversity. Ofcourse
diversity
can take a back seat when DREAM & E3-Irish are to be considered.
But there is no denying that Schumer, Durbin & Leahy are powerful senators
and
although they may not care for a stand-alone HR 3012 but purely for the sake
of E3-Irish
they may go ahead with the formalities needed to avoid cloture, just incase
Grassley
tries to put a hold on S.1983. (FYI: Out of the 14 bills currently on hold,
Grassley is involved in 9 of those!!)
In contrast with S.1857, the dem-sponsored S.1983 once introduced is
unlikely to pass
on unanimous consent/voice vote. Amendments might get added by republicans
in
committee or on senate floor to eliminate E3 provision. If these amendments
pass then
S.1983 might be identical to S.1857. In that case I'm not sure if it would
be considered
as a companion bill to HR 3012 but if it does then that will be the best
case scenario for
us. If it passes with E3 then a similar bill has to clear the house which
seems pretty
unlikely given the republican control on it.
E3-Irish can act like a booster on a rocket which propels it by its power
but also pulls it
down by its weight. But just like a rocket if this booster falls off after
reaching the
required height (read "passing through the senate") then our objective is
accomplished
__________________________________________________ ______________
[Disclaimer: On the personal front I'm neither in favor nor against the E3-
for-Irish idea. I just hope it does not adversely impact the passage of HR
3012 in senate. One good thing about this bill is at least the provisions of
Hr3012 would get considered in some form rather than rotting in the "Hold"
put by the great senator.]
