小三又来了，价格不给力。# PhotoGear - 摄影器材
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1. Housing activity has picked up considerably. The housing sector is an
important “leading sector” with a profound impact on the overall economy,
as the financial crisis made plain. Housing starts are up nearly 25% year-
over-year; in summer 2011 they were still in the doldrums and some
forecasters worried about a major “double-dip” in housing prices.
2. Oil prices look less threatening. Although oil prices have gyrated
considerably this year, on net the price of Brent crude is little changed
from the beginning of the year (or a year ago). Contrast this with the
winter of 2010-2011, when crude surged roughly 50%, from $80 to $120 a
barrel.
3. The equity market paints a more optimistic picture. As already noted,
the S&P 500 is close to its high for the year, whereas last year the market
never recovered its springtime highs. Also, importantly, interest rates are
considerably lower. More broadly, financial conditions look fairly
supportive for growth–our GS Financial Conditions Index is roughly at
springtime levels, near its easiest point for the year; in 2011, it
tightened by more than 50bp in the late summer. …
4. Lower expectations. Investors had higher hopes for the economy in
spring 2011. Our US-MAP score of economic data “surprises” implied about
twice as much disappointment in spring 2011 as spring 2012. The scale of the
disappointment may have caused investor sentiment to overshoot to the
negative side, even though the data were not recessionary in an absolute
sense.
5. The “won’t get fooled again” phenomenon. On a similar note, given
that last year’s focus on recession turned out to be unwarranted, investors
may be less nervous about another weak patch in the data. Evidence that
seasonal adjustment distortions may play some lingering role in summertime
weakness, particularly for the unemployment rate, may also make forecasters
and investors wary of excessive pessimism.
6. No debt limit debacle–yet. The brinksmanship over the debt ceiling
in mid-summer 2011 created great uncertainty, and severely damaged business
and consumer confidence. While a repeat is certainly possible, investors and
managers can at least hope that last year’s searing experience and the end
of election season will pave the way for a smoother process this time.
important “leading sector” with a profound impact on the overall economy,
as the financial crisis made plain. Housing starts are up nearly 25% year-
over-year; in summer 2011 they were still in the doldrums and some
forecasters worried about a major “double-dip” in housing prices.
2. Oil prices look less threatening. Although oil prices have gyrated
considerably this year, on net the price of Brent crude is little changed
from the beginning of the year (or a year ago). Contrast this with the
winter of 2010-2011, when crude surged roughly 50%, from $80 to $120 a
barrel.
3. The equity market paints a more optimistic picture. As already noted,
the S&P 500 is close to its high for the year, whereas last year the market
never recovered its springtime highs. Also, importantly, interest rates are
considerably lower. More broadly, financial conditions look fairly
supportive for growth–our GS Financial Conditions Index is roughly at
springtime levels, near its easiest point for the year; in 2011, it
tightened by more than 50bp in the late summer. …
4. Lower expectations. Investors had higher hopes for the economy in
spring 2011. Our US-MAP score of economic data “surprises” implied about
twice as much disappointment in spring 2011 as spring 2012. The scale of the
disappointment may have caused investor sentiment to overshoot to the
negative side, even though the data were not recessionary in an absolute
sense.
5. The “won’t get fooled again” phenomenon. On a similar note, given
that last year’s focus on recession turned out to be unwarranted, investors
may be less nervous about another weak patch in the data. Evidence that
seasonal adjustment distortions may play some lingering role in summertime
weakness, particularly for the unemployment rate, may also make forecasters
and investors wary of excessive pessimism.
6. No debt limit debacle–yet. The brinksmanship over the debt ceiling
in mid-summer 2011 created great uncertainty, and severely damaged business
and consumer confidence. While a repeat is certainly possible, investors and
managers can at least hope that last year’s searing experience and the end
of election season will pave the way for a smoother process this time.
