你们熬夜吗还？ - 未名空间MITBBS历史存档

R*a2010-08-16 07:08

1 楼

这场所谓的危机，能走多远
危机
从中国收紧流动性
到欧洲主权债务危机
这轮全球金融市场的下跌
持续快两个月了
下面到底还能走远
咱们先来看看其成因
本轮下跌
主要是三个因素
1、欧洲的主权债务危机
2、美国的金融法案改革
3、中国对流动性的持续收紧
这三个问题的本质，都是对信贷总额或流动性的担忧
并由这种担忧，引发了广义抵押品价值的下跌
进而形成了全球经济的悲观气氛，反馈加强
下去买完烟，继续扯
欧洲主权债务危机的本质
不在所谓的欧元崩溃，而在于
部分欧洲国家无法偿债的担忧
会导致欧美金融系统的流动性收紧上
这次的欧洲主权债务危机的担忧
不是爆发在国债比例过高的国家爆发的
而爆发于抵押品（资产和收入预期）不足的小国
而美国金融法案改革
市场担忧可能会美国的金融系统
由于美国政府监管权力的加强
导致金融和信用产品的种类和总量收缩
由于这类清理，而导致链式的金融系统间
的被迫结算，从而导致整体信贷额度的被迫收缩
欧洲银行业与美国金融市场高度一本化
自然的，会带来欧洲金融系统的收缩
美国是小银行模式和高度分割的金融系统体系
而欧洲却是全能银行模式
如果说美国倒霉几家银行关系不大的话
欧洲就要

g*72010-08-16 07:08

2 楼

觉得手动头没有什么好玩的了，我用从国内买的一个可以confirm focus的转接环接到
5D2上，觉得对得准的时候不多，还要调半天。放在CRAIGLIST 上，第二天就让SOHO的
帅哥给收了。
准备上50MM 1.2L.

m*i2010-08-16 07:08

3 楼

纠结中，熬还是不熬？

R*a2010-08-16 07:08

4 楼

美国对全球经济的贡献
已经透支了几十年，即消费拉动全球经济
这两年美国在全面清理国内财务结构
其消费对全球经济的贡献，大打折扣
而美国能够在改善自身财务条件的同时，维持高消费的
高技术对全球，尤其是大的发展中国家的平衡能力
的是否真正启动，就成了美国稳定全球经济的，关键之中的关键
这关系到中国经济的是否能够与美国互动性全面启动
德国和日本，在稳定全球经济上，有着巨大的能力
这两个国家，实质上都在长期压制国内消费能力
德国以其强大的技术产品竞争力和出口，日本以其庞大的净资产拥有量
都有着相当强的消费释放潜力，或者说稳定全球经济的能力
这两个国家，德国以极度厌恶通胀知名，日本这十多年以贪婪的追求全球资产布局见长
同时，这两个国家，整体上，还是政治弱国
（虽然苏联仍威胁降低，但德国由于俄国的蠢蠢欲动和欧盟的脆弱及其经济对出口的偏
好，仍需美国支持）
所以说，这两个国家是否愿意或在政治压力下放松对消费的抑制
就成了稳定全球经济的关键

【在 R***a 的大作中提到】

: 这场所谓的危机，能走多远
: 危机
: 从中国收紧流动性
: 到欧洲主权债务危机
: 这轮全球金融市场的下跌
: 持续快两个月了
: 下面到底还能走远
: 咱们先来看看其成因
: 本轮下跌
: 主要是三个因素

h*g2010-08-16 07:08

5 楼

恭喜
排包子

Y*e2010-08-16 07:08

6 楼

你想忙啥?

s*r2010-08-16 07:08

7 楼

你扯的挺好，赞一个

T*t2010-08-16 07:08

8 楼

包子

【在 g*****7 的大作中提到】

: 觉得手动头没有什么好玩的了，我用从国内买的一个可以confirm focus的转接环接到
: 5D2上，觉得对得准的时候不多，还要调半天。放在CRAIGLIST 上，第二天就让SOHO的
: 帅哥给收了。
: 准备上50MM 1.2L.

d*g2010-08-16 07:08

9 楼

正在熬

b*y2010-08-16 07:08

10 楼

写得很不错， mark

s*y2010-08-16 07:08

11 楼

不是contax的那个就不为所动

focus的转接环接到

【在 g*****7 的大作中提到】

: 觉得手动头没有什么好玩的了，我用从国内买的一个可以confirm focus的转接环接到
: 5D2上，觉得对得准的时候不多，还要调半天。放在CRAIGLIST 上，第二天就让SOHO的
: 帅哥给收了。
: 准备上50MM 1.2L.

s*g2010-08-16 07:08

12 楼

熬鸭

【在 m****i 的大作中提到】

: 纠结中，熬还是不熬？

N*n2010-08-16 07:08

13 楼

It crashes b/c more and more investors have realized Uncle Sam wears no
cloth while having "Ultimate PIIGS" written all over his naked body, so
they collectively hit the sell button, then "BANG"!
Market is screaming now for a 2nd stimulus, 5-trillion at least or bust.

【在 R***a 的大作中提到】

: 这场所谓的危机，能走多远
: 危机
: 从中国收紧流动性
: 到欧洲主权债务危机
: 这轮全球金融市场的下跌
: 持续快两个月了
: 下面到底还能走远
: 咱们先来看看其成因
: 本轮下跌
: 主要是三个因素

o*x2010-08-16 07:08

14 楼

baozi

k*y2010-08-16 07:08

15 楼

不熬怎么睡的着觉？

j*e2010-08-16 07:08

16 楼

good posts, thank you

d*02010-08-16 07:08

17 楼

包子

s*r2010-08-16 07:08

18 楼

中国没法搞内需
搞个房市拉动消费，还被一帮人臭骂
怎么个内需法
国内有钱人除了往外国跑，在外国买房，已经无路可走了
话又说回来
房子热，还不是社会保障不力
看来不搞社会保障，消费是拉不动的了

t*o2010-08-16 07:08

19 楼

再扯扯德日两国怎么压制的消费

【在 R***a 的大作中提到】

: 美国对全球经济的贡献
: 已经透支了几十年，即消费拉动全球经济
: 这两年美国在全面清理国内财务结构
: 其消费对全球经济的贡献，大打折扣
: 而美国能够在改善自身财务条件的同时，维持高消费的
: 高技术对全球，尤其是大的发展中国家的平衡能力
: 的是否真正启动，就成了美国稳定全球经济的，关键之中的关键
: 这关系到中国经济的是否能够与美国互动性全面启动
: 德国和日本，在稳定全球经济上，有着巨大的能力
: 这两个国家，实质上都在长期压制国内消费能力

r*r2010-08-16 07:08

20 楼

扯了，德日人口老化，新生率低，福利成本太高，
哪能稳定全球经济。
明显得看中印的Asia。

【在 R***a 的大作中提到】

: 美国对全球经济的贡献
: 已经透支了几十年，即消费拉动全球经济
: 这两年美国在全面清理国内财务结构
: 其消费对全球经济的贡献，大打折扣
: 而美国能够在改善自身财务条件的同时，维持高消费的
: 高技术对全球，尤其是大的发展中国家的平衡能力
: 的是否真正启动，就成了美国稳定全球经济的，关键之中的关键
: 这关系到中国经济的是否能够与美国互动性全面启动
: 德国和日本，在稳定全球经济上，有着巨大的能力
: 这两个国家，实质上都在长期压制国内消费能力

j*h2010-08-16 07:08

21 楼

super

【在 R***a 的大作中提到】

: 这场所谓的危机，能走多远
: 危机
: 从中国收紧流动性
: 到欧洲主权债务危机
: 这轮全球金融市场的下跌
: 持续快两个月了
: 下面到底还能走远
: 咱们先来看看其成因
: 本轮下跌
: 主要是三个因素

a*y2010-08-16 07:08

22 楼

Great one.

l*u2010-08-16 07:08

23 楼

好文章，体裁像新体诗。

【在 R***a 的大作中提到】

: 这场所谓的危机，能走多远
: 危机
: 从中国收紧流动性
: 到欧洲主权债务危机
: 这轮全球金融市场的下跌
: 持续快两个月了
: 下面到底还能走远
: 咱们先来看看其成因
: 本轮下跌
: 主要是三个因素

w*y2010-08-16 07:08

24 楼

房子是投资。

【在 s******r 的大作中提到】

: 中国没法搞内需
: 搞个房市拉动消费，还被一帮人臭骂
: 怎么个内需法
: 国内有钱人除了往外国跑，在外国买房，已经无路可走了
: 话又说回来
: 房子热，还不是社会保障不力
: 看来不搞社会保障，消费是拉不动的了

k*n2010-08-16 07:08

25 楼

very nice

T*s2010-08-16 07:08

26 楼

青蛙的愚见，请高手指正
这场危机依然是次贷危机的延续
美国转移危机到海外的继续
看看五月来的vix就知道大家多么惊慌
次贷危机还没有真正结束

t*o2010-08-16 07:08

27 楼

德国还要对东德东欧做贡献，太不容易了

【在 r*******r 的大作中提到】

: 扯了，德日人口老化，新生率低，福利成本太高，
: 哪能稳定全球经济。
: 明显得看中印的Asia。

S*a2010-08-16 07:08

28 楼

中国的内需已经拉动得很快了。2009年几乎所有的主要消费市场都是暴涨。最典型的就
是汽车销售井喷，直接坐上世界第一。
中国要搞内需太简单了，中央发个文件，然后就是汽车下乡，家电下乡，电脑下乡....
.还有最近正在闹腾的全民涨工资。

【在 s******r 的大作中提到】

: 中国没法搞内需
: 搞个房市拉动消费，还被一帮人臭骂
: 怎么个内需法
: 国内有钱人除了往外国跑，在外国买房，已经无路可走了
: 话又说回来
: 房子热，还不是社会保障不力
: 看来不搞社会保障，消费是拉不动的了

T*12010-08-16 07:08

29 楼

Completely off the point.
the real problem is: the global balance sheet bubble has been blow to a
scale multiple times larger than can be supported be the global income. it
has to come back to balance, and it will. there are two ways out of this:
inflate income, or shrink balance sheet. the so called stimulus package was
designed to boost the income statement, which has failed in acheiving this
(no real private sector growth). Instead, the stimulus packages blew the
public liability, which

【在 R***a 的大作中提到】

: 这场所谓的危机，能走多远
: 危机
: 从中国收紧流动性
: 到欧洲主权债务危机
: 这轮全球金融市场的下跌
: 持续快两个月了
: 下面到底还能走远
: 咱们先来看看其成因
: 本轮下跌
: 主要是三个因素

C*N2010-08-16 07:08

30 楼

good, mark.

N*n2010-08-16 07:08

31 楼

It's the same debt crisis, and it's getting worse.
Taking on some debt itself is not necessarily bad as long as you can pay
it back. The situation of Greece and PIIGS have finally made people see
the inconvenient truth: Countries across western civilization carry too
much debt to pays off so they are on an inevitable path toward default
and bankruptcy, and US is no exception to it.
Only in socialist Keynesian economists' screwed up mind would anyone take
on more debt to clean, GASP, a debt prob

【在 T*********s 的大作中提到】

: 青蛙的愚见，请高手指正
: 这场危机依然是次贷危机的延续
: 美国转移危机到海外的继续
: 看看五月来的vix就知道大家多么惊慌
: 次贷危机还没有真正结束

h*a2010-08-16 07:08

32 楼

The economic collapse of Greece and several other European countries were
very much caused by the central European currency - euro. Because those
countries do not have their own currencies, they could not pursue
expansionary monetary policies through devaluation when their economies turn
sour.
The US is a very different story. The country prints its own currency. Debt
is not such a big problem to the US as it can always inflate its way out.

T*12010-08-16 07:08

33 楼

Not true. It is not the first time the PIIGS were in trouble. the EURO was
suppose to liberate them from their historical stigma(borrow beyond their
means and then default) and high interest rate burden. But off course the
currency was not the problem, the people are the problems. Their people want
rights to free meals, free healthcare, free education (sounds familiar),
that is why they are in trouble.
The real litmus test for EURO is not even PIIGS any more, it is France.
will the Germans b

【在 h*******a 的大作中提到】

: The economic collapse of Greece and several other European countries were
: very much caused by the central European currency - euro. Because those
: countries do not have their own currencies, they could not pursue
: expansionary monetary policies through devaluation when their economies turn
: sour.
: The US is a very different story. The country prints its own currency. Debt
: is not such a big problem to the US as it can always inflate its way out.

m*i2010-08-16 07:08

34 楼

Right on the money.
If you look at the USA, the Income tax(including Social security tax) is
only enough to pay for the entitlement.
So what do we do with all other spending? We have a structure problems,
unless you cut the entitlement, we are heading for the disaster.

was
this
income.

【在 T**********1 的大作中提到】

: Completely off the point.
: the real problem is: the global balance sheet bubble has been blow to a
: scale multiple times larger than can be supported be the global income. it
: has to come back to balance, and it will. there are two ways out of this:
: inflate income, or shrink balance sheet. the so called stimulus package was
: designed to boost the income statement, which has failed in acheiving this
: (no real private sector growth). Instead, the stimulus packages blew the
: public liability, which

r*n2010-08-16 07:08

35 楼

有道理，中国去年的经济政策过度了，高昂的房价已经造成内伤了。如果经济危机是能
够1年半载就结束的，这招管用，如果经济危机是会持续4到5年的，中国继续撑下去，
前景堪忧。宝总理太乐观了，周小川是误国误民。

【在 R***a 的大作中提到】

: 这场所谓的危机，能走多远
: 危机
: 从中国收紧流动性
: 到欧洲主权债务危机
: 这轮全球金融市场的下跌
: 持续快两个月了
: 下面到底还能走远
: 咱们先来看看其成因
: 本轮下跌
: 主要是三个因素

h*a2010-08-16 07:08

36 楼

I have to disagree. I believe in the value of social welfare. It is the
primary responsibility of the government to provide its people with such
important benefits as public education, universal health care, and
unemployment benefits. I see no problem with people demanding those benefits
, for its more of a moral issue, than an economic issue.
The problem with Greece is that it has fallen into a trap. During the good
years, when capital was flooding in, Greek costs and prices went far out of
lin

【在 T**********1 的大作中提到】

: Not true. It is not the first time the PIIGS were in trouble. the EURO was
: suppose to liberate them from their historical stigma(borrow beyond their
: means and then default) and high interest rate burden. But off course the
: currency was not the problem, the people are the problems. Their people want
: rights to free meals, free healthcare, free education (sounds familiar),
: that is why they are in trouble.
: The real litmus test for EURO is not even PIIGS any more, it is France.
: will the Germans b

N*n2010-08-16 07:08

37 楼

Weimar Republic, Mexico, Argentina and Zimbabwe will send you congrat
telegraphs.

【在 h*******a 的大作中提到】

: I have to disagree. I believe in the value of social welfare. It is the
: primary responsibility of the government to provide its people with such
: important benefits as public education, universal health care, and
: unemployment benefits. I see no problem with people demanding those benefits
: , for its more of a moral issue, than an economic issue.
: The problem with Greece is that it has fallen into a trap. During the good
: years, when capital was flooding in, Greek costs and prices went far out of
: lin

N*n2010-08-16 07:08

38 楼

Nah, welfare is by its nature evil despite the good will on its surface.
A welfare system allows people to not only sit on their butt contributing
nothing but also vote on how much money they can suck from those who work
hard. That's one massive negative unintended consequence that overwhelms
whatever good will it brings.
A real healthy economy has to truly believe in freedom, not a phony one.
It cannot force money to flow where it does not on its own. When you tax
the hard working people to pa

【在 h*******a 的大作中提到】

: I have to disagree. I believe in the value of social welfare. It is the
: primary responsibility of the government to provide its people with such
: important benefits as public education, universal health care, and
: unemployment benefits. I see no problem with people demanding those benefits
: , for its more of a moral issue, than an economic issue.
: The problem with Greece is that it has fallen into a trap. During the good
: years, when capital was flooding in, Greek costs and prices went far out of
: lin

T*12010-08-16 07:08

39 楼

Exactly. allow me to explain to to the brain-cell-malfunctioning peopel:
these believers talk about society responsiblity as if that is something
that comes from heaven.
There is no such thing that a sociaty can provide without depriving/robbing
it from someone who has worked for it and unwilling to part with it. To
provide something to someone who didnt work for it, you have to take it by
force from something who worked for it.
That is why welfare is evil by nature.

【在 N********n 的大作中提到】

:
: Nah, welfare is by its nature evil despite the good will on its surface.
: A welfare system allows people to not only sit on their butt contributing
: nothing but also vote on how much money they can suck from those who work
: hard. That's one massive negative unintended consequence that overwhelms
: whatever good will it brings.
: A real healthy economy has to truly believe in freedom, not a phony one.
: It cannot force money to flow where it does not on its own. When you tax
: the hard working people to pa

h*a2010-08-16 07:08

40 楼

Those countries did not have China buying their debts.

【在 N********n 的大作中提到】

:
: Nah, welfare is by its nature evil despite the good will on its surface.
: A welfare system allows people to not only sit on their butt contributing
: nothing but also vote on how much money they can suck from those who work
: hard. That's one massive negative unintended consequence that overwhelms
: whatever good will it brings.
: A real healthy economy has to truly believe in freedom, not a phony one.
: It cannot force money to flow where it does not on its own. When you tax
: the hard working people to pa

h*a2010-08-16 07:08

41 楼

Those who do not want to take care of others will be left out themselves
when in need.
We should be against social welfare abuse, not social welfare itself.

【在 N********n 的大作中提到】

:
: Nah, welfare is by its nature evil despite the good will on its surface.
: A welfare system allows people to not only sit on their butt contributing
: nothing but also vote on how much money they can suck from those who work
: hard. That's one massive negative unintended consequence that overwhelms
: whatever good will it brings.
: A real healthy economy has to truly believe in freedom, not a phony one.
: It cannot force money to flow where it does not on its own. When you tax
: the hard working people to pa

N*n2010-08-16 07:08

42 楼

As a matter of fact China has enough money to cover those countries' debt
but not that of US. You need at least 30 Chinas to lend all the $ reserve
to US w/o asking payback to save US from default.
Game over. US economy is a dead man walking.

【在 h*******a 的大作中提到】

: Those countries did not have China buying their debts.