2013年，人民币兑美元10：1# Returnee - 海归
u*n
1 楼
我的估计。之后会人民币会快速贬值。2015：３０~50：１。
现在的汇率是不可持续性的。到一定程度，中国一定坚持不住，不然社会会大乱。
现在的汇率是不可持续性的。到一定程度，中国一定坚持不住，不然社会会大乱。
i*e
2 楼
你做梦吧你。年底前4:1， 2015年3:1
o*y
3 楼
30:1 应该是黑市的价。
官方还是会维持 6:1 的，只是你换不到。
失业率会在 25%
呵呵
【在 u*****n 的大作中提到】
: 我的估计。之后会人民币会快速贬值。2015：３０~50：１。
: 现在的汇率是不可持续性的。到一定程度，中国一定坚持不住，不然社会会大乱。
官方还是会维持 6:1 的，只是你换不到。
失业率会在 25%
呵呵
【在 u*****n 的大作中提到】
: 我的估计。之后会人民币会快速贬值。2015：３０~50：１。
: 现在的汇率是不可持续性的。到一定程度，中国一定坚持不住，不然社会会大乱。
b*k
4 楼
The exchange rate is not a suitable topic in this board. I once seriously
discussed it with some professors and managers. In my knowledge, I shall say
, one of you is very close to the truth. The future trend will not keep a
flat line, but turn to a sharp slope. This is why I say one of you two is
right. Let's see what takes place in the near future. Just be patient.
(1) 我的估计。之后会人民币会快速贬值。2015：３０~50：１。
现在的汇率是不可持续性的。到一定程度，中国一定坚持不住，不然社会会大乱。
(2) 你做梦吧你。年底前4:1， 2015年3:1
discussed it with some professors and managers. In my knowledge, I shall say
, one of you is very close to the truth. The future trend will not keep a
flat line, but turn to a sharp slope. This is why I say one of you two is
right. Let's see what takes place in the near future. Just be patient.
(1) 我的估计。之后会人民币会快速贬值。2015：３０~50：１。
现在的汇率是不可持续性的。到一定程度，中国一定坚持不住，不然社会会大乱。
(2) 你做梦吧你。年底前4:1， 2015年3:1
b*k
5 楼
Acute observation and expectation. The government certainly will do that,
trying to manipulate the official exchange rate when the hard landing
happens. But it never works out.
First, when the government attempts to keep the exchange rate in such a high
level in the presence of severe domestic inflation, the exportion would be
completely destroyed. Most firms couldn't make any profit to export any
products at that moment. It leads to a surge of unemployment.
Second, no one would like to change the dollars to RMB at the rate of 6:1 at
that moment. So the reservation of dollars would quickly squeeze out.
Because, we heavily rely on the the import of oil, iron ore, and etc. The
only way to get these materials is by using our dollar reservation.
Finally, no one would like invest by dollars, so the outside energy to
stimulate the economy disappear.
So, my conclusion: they will try to hold the official exchange rate in a
short term, but never last in a long run.
【在 o****y 的大作中提到】
: 30:1 应该是黑市的价。
: 官方还是会维持 6:1 的，只是你换不到。
: 失业率会在 25%
: 呵呵
trying to manipulate the official exchange rate when the hard landing
happens. But it never works out.
First, when the government attempts to keep the exchange rate in such a high
level in the presence of severe domestic inflation, the exportion would be
completely destroyed. Most firms couldn't make any profit to export any
products at that moment. It leads to a surge of unemployment.
Second, no one would like to change the dollars to RMB at the rate of 6:1 at
that moment. So the reservation of dollars would quickly squeeze out.
Because, we heavily rely on the the import of oil, iron ore, and etc. The
only way to get these materials is by using our dollar reservation.
Finally, no one would like invest by dollars, so the outside energy to
stimulate the economy disappear.
So, my conclusion: they will try to hold the official exchange rate in a
short term, but never last in a long run.
【在 o****y 的大作中提到】
: 30:1 应该是黑市的价。
: 官方还是会维持 6:1 的，只是你换不到。
: 失业率会在 25%
: 呵呵
o*y
6 楼
这一天估计会来的比想象要快。
Francesca Levy, AP Business Writer, On Thursday March 10, 2011, 12:48 pm EST
NEW YORK (AP) -- Weak economic news from China, the U.S. and Spain combined
with a slump in oil companies sent stocks sharply lower Thursday.
Investors were jarred when China reported a surprise trade deficit in
February.
【在 o****y 的大作中提到】
: 30:1 应该是黑市的价。
: 官方还是会维持 6:1 的，只是你换不到。
: 失业率会在 25%
: 呵呵
Francesca Levy, AP Business Writer, On Thursday March 10, 2011, 12:48 pm EST
NEW YORK (AP) -- Weak economic news from China, the U.S. and Spain combined
with a slump in oil companies sent stocks sharply lower Thursday.
Investors were jarred when China reported a surprise trade deficit in
February.
【在 o****y 的大作中提到】
: 30:1 应该是黑市的价。
: 官方还是会维持 6:1 的，只是你换不到。
: 失业率会在 25%
: 呵呵
P*a
7 楼
那么国内的钱，什么时候转过来比较好阿？
A*s
8 楼
这是一个很有意义的话题。我对经济是绝对的门外汉，但就让咱们从门外汉的角度来分
析一些人民币升值或是贬值的前景。
1）如果人民币大幅度升值至3：1。相对于其他国家人民而言，会有相当数量的中国人
的收入水平在世界范围内也处于富裕阶层，也会有相当一批拥有巨量现金的中国企业变
得拥有超级的购买力。中国对进口食品，能源，矿产，奢侈品的需求更是会有惊人的增
长，从而造成这些产品的国际价格持续上涨。而价格上涨的后果是：1）中国需要消耗
大量外汇储备；2）其他国家货币购买力的相对减弱和人民生活水平下降---这有可能引
发其他国家的社会问题从而导致这些国家采取反制措施。人民币升值将不可避免的给中
国大量依靠廉价劳动力的出口加工企业以沉重打击。如果高附加值的产品出口不能迅速
赶上，将造成中国整体的出口创汇能力降低。同时大量外资企业也会因为人力成本的快
速上升而离开中国。所有这些后果将会导致人民币在3：1的基础上贬值。但是能否再次
贬到6：1将很难说，这取决于中国的经济，社会的未来发展。
2）如果人民币大幅度贬值至10：1。毫无疑问，中国的出口加工企业又将大肆繁荣，外
汇储备继续爆炸性膨胀（强制结汇导致人民币流通量继续猛增），进口能源，粮食，矿
产的人民币价格上涨从而导致国内通货膨胀肆虐，大量低收入人民生活将变得更加困难
从而在大范围内引发中国的社会问题。
简单来说，我觉得人民币升值对大部分的中国老百姓来说是好事，贬值将是一场灾难。
从长远来看，中国政府应该允许人民币和美元在境内的自由兑换（也就是允许汇率的自
由浮动）；但是对美元的出入境要严加控制，防止投机分子的热钱的兴风做浪。
high
be
at
【在 b*********k 的大作中提到】
: Acute observation and expectation. The government certainly will do that,
: trying to manipulate the official exchange rate when the hard landing
: happens. But it never works out.
: First, when the government attempts to keep the exchange rate in such a high
: level in the presence of severe domestic inflation, the exportion would be
: completely destroyed. Most firms couldn't make any profit to export any
: products at that moment. It leads to a surge of unemployment.
: Second, no one would like to change the dollars to RMB at the rate of 6:1 at
: that moment. So the reservation of dollars would quickly squeeze out.
: Because, we heavily rely on the the import of oil, iron ore, and etc. The
析一些人民币升值或是贬值的前景。
1）如果人民币大幅度升值至3：1。相对于其他国家人民而言，会有相当数量的中国人
的收入水平在世界范围内也处于富裕阶层，也会有相当一批拥有巨量现金的中国企业变
得拥有超级的购买力。中国对进口食品，能源，矿产，奢侈品的需求更是会有惊人的增
长，从而造成这些产品的国际价格持续上涨。而价格上涨的后果是：1）中国需要消耗
大量外汇储备；2）其他国家货币购买力的相对减弱和人民生活水平下降---这有可能引
发其他国家的社会问题从而导致这些国家采取反制措施。人民币升值将不可避免的给中
国大量依靠廉价劳动力的出口加工企业以沉重打击。如果高附加值的产品出口不能迅速
赶上，将造成中国整体的出口创汇能力降低。同时大量外资企业也会因为人力成本的快
速上升而离开中国。所有这些后果将会导致人民币在3：1的基础上贬值。但是能否再次
贬到6：1将很难说，这取决于中国的经济，社会的未来发展。
2）如果人民币大幅度贬值至10：1。毫无疑问，中国的出口加工企业又将大肆繁荣，外
汇储备继续爆炸性膨胀（强制结汇导致人民币流通量继续猛增），进口能源，粮食，矿
产的人民币价格上涨从而导致国内通货膨胀肆虐，大量低收入人民生活将变得更加困难
从而在大范围内引发中国的社会问题。
简单来说，我觉得人民币升值对大部分的中国老百姓来说是好事，贬值将是一场灾难。
从长远来看，中国政府应该允许人民币和美元在境内的自由兑换（也就是允许汇率的自
由浮动）；但是对美元的出入境要严加控制，防止投机分子的热钱的兴风做浪。
high
be
at
【在 b*********k 的大作中提到】
: Acute observation and expectation. The government certainly will do that,
: trying to manipulate the official exchange rate when the hard landing
: happens. But it never works out.
: First, when the government attempts to keep the exchange rate in such a high
: level in the presence of severe domestic inflation, the exportion would be
: completely destroyed. Most firms couldn't make any profit to export any
: products at that moment. It leads to a surge of unemployment.
: Second, no one would like to change the dollars to RMB at the rate of 6:1 at
: that moment. So the reservation of dollars would quickly squeeze out.
: Because, we heavily rely on the the import of oil, iron ore, and etc. The
m*d
9 楼
这是胡扯吧，今年二月是春节而已
EST
combined
【在 o****y 的大作中提到】
: 这一天估计会来的比想象要快。
: Francesca Levy, AP Business Writer, On Thursday March 10, 2011, 12:48 pm EST
: NEW YORK (AP) -- Weak economic news from China, the U.S. and Spain combined
: with a slump in oil companies sent stocks sharply lower Thursday.
: Investors were jarred when China reported a surprise trade deficit in
: February.
EST
combined
【在 o****y 的大作中提到】
: 这一天估计会来的比想象要快。
: Francesca Levy, AP Business Writer, On Thursday March 10, 2011, 12:48 pm EST
: NEW YORK (AP) -- Weak economic news from China, the U.S. and Spain combined
: with a slump in oil companies sent stocks sharply lower Thursday.
: Investors were jarred when China reported a surprise trade deficit in
: February.
B*s
10 楼
我跟你说
天朝的事情要被你门清了那就不叫天朝了
之前的那几次发财机会你抓住哪次了？
lol
天朝的事情要被你门清了那就不叫天朝了
之前的那几次发财机会你抓住哪次了？
lol
b*k
11 楼
You are talking about another question: whether shall we increase or
decrease the currency rate right now. It seems you might prefer increasing
it to 3:1. However, it is another trap.
Benefit:
(1) to somewhat reduce the pain of inflation, especially control the cost of
import oil, iron ore, and etc.
(2) Rich people can buy more luxury good and invest abroad.
Nightmare:
(1) destroy the export, leading to unemployment. let's say now the rate is 6
each. Now consider 3:1, we at least need to sell at $3.34 to make it even.
However, the US people won't buy it, because it is too expensive, they would
like to purchase the items from the other countries, like Indian, Mexico,
and etc., if their price is less than $3.3. Remember, our product is highly
substitutable because it is short of innovation, patent protect, high-tech.
Our advantage mainly comes from low cost: human and land. But the other poor
countries are able to provide it at low cost, even though their is now
slightly higher than ours.
Therefore we will lose the competitive advantage in the global market if the
exchange rate goes up quickly. If so, lots of companies shut off,and people
would pain from no job. Remember the long-run strength of currency is based
on the steady economy growth. When the Chinese manufacturing goes down,
what is the power to support a strong currency in the long run?
(2) look at the actual purchasing power of RMB and dollars. After the
inflation in 2010. You can see it is very likely to buy a same product
cheaper in US than in China. (there are lots of comparison, so I don't want
to provide any detail). My feeling is that the purchasing power of US
dollars now is slightly higher than RMB at the current exchange rate. (US
never admits this point). So RMB's value would be heavily over-estimated if
the rate reaches 3:1. What happens the next? People knows RMB is not worth
that much, and would like to switch to dollars to avoid the risk. Remember
we are now experiencing the heavy inflation and are short of ways to invest.
It means the RMB's domestic value is decreasing while its global value is
increasing. Don't think it is very dangerous if these two trends continues
simultaneously? It would final trigger huge demand for US dollars, because
people eventually realize the RMB won't be wise to keep all RMBs, they need
some other currency to protect their asset. Then what happens?
(3) The RMB's value sharply drop, if the demand is overwhelm the total
reservation of dollar. Remember we have M2 = 73 trillion , now only have $1
.8 trillion reservation, but half of them not flexible, let's say $1
trillion flexible, then you see it only covers RMB 3 trillion, if the rate
is 3:1. So it will vanish immediately, if 4% of the total M2 would like to
avoid the risk. Then what, just as some friend said before:
30:1 应该是黑市的价。官方还是会维持 6:1 的，只是你换不到。失业率会在 25%
呵呵
Afterwards, as I said: the government tries to hold the exchange rate in a
short term, but fails in the long run.
We shall understand, when the currency starts to melt down, there is no way
to keep 6:1, because all the expectation turns to another direction, and
desperately need to change dollars. It is proved again and again in all the
black days of the stock market and exchange market.
Summary:
Currently, we can not do much to either increase and decrease the currency
rate. Either way to make a big change will bring the economy to the dead end
. From the perspective of people, we have already in the dilemma, either
suffer the pain from inflation or face the risk of unemployment. There is no
way to save both, consider now either the inflation is fast and the actual
unemployment is severe.
decrease the currency rate right now. It seems you might prefer increasing
it to 3:1. However, it is another trap.
Benefit:
(1) to somewhat reduce the pain of inflation, especially control the cost of
import oil, iron ore, and etc.
(2) Rich people can buy more luxury good and invest abroad.
Nightmare:
(1) destroy the export, leading to unemployment. let's say now the rate is 6
each. Now consider 3:1, we at least need to sell at $3.34 to make it even.
However, the US people won't buy it, because it is too expensive, they would
like to purchase the items from the other countries, like Indian, Mexico,
and etc., if their price is less than $3.3. Remember, our product is highly
substitutable because it is short of innovation, patent protect, high-tech.
Our advantage mainly comes from low cost: human and land. But the other poor
countries are able to provide it at low cost, even though their is now
slightly higher than ours.
Therefore we will lose the competitive advantage in the global market if the
exchange rate goes up quickly. If so, lots of companies shut off,and people
would pain from no job. Remember the long-run strength of currency is based
on the steady economy growth. When the Chinese manufacturing goes down,
what is the power to support a strong currency in the long run?
(2) look at the actual purchasing power of RMB and dollars. After the
inflation in 2010. You can see it is very likely to buy a same product
cheaper in US than in China. (there are lots of comparison, so I don't want
to provide any detail). My feeling is that the purchasing power of US
dollars now is slightly higher than RMB at the current exchange rate. (US
never admits this point). So RMB's value would be heavily over-estimated if
the rate reaches 3:1. What happens the next? People knows RMB is not worth
that much, and would like to switch to dollars to avoid the risk. Remember
we are now experiencing the heavy inflation and are short of ways to invest.
It means the RMB's domestic value is decreasing while its global value is
increasing. Don't think it is very dangerous if these two trends continues
simultaneously? It would final trigger huge demand for US dollars, because
people eventually realize the RMB won't be wise to keep all RMBs, they need
some other currency to protect their asset. Then what happens?
(3) The RMB's value sharply drop, if the demand is overwhelm the total
reservation of dollar. Remember we have M2 = 73 trillion , now only have $1
.8 trillion reservation, but half of them not flexible, let's say $1
trillion flexible, then you see it only covers RMB 3 trillion, if the rate
is 3:1. So it will vanish immediately, if 4% of the total M2 would like to
avoid the risk. Then what, just as some friend said before:
30:1 应该是黑市的价。官方还是会维持 6:1 的，只是你换不到。失业率会在 25%
呵呵
Afterwards, as I said: the government tries to hold the exchange rate in a
short term, but fails in the long run.
We shall understand, when the currency starts to melt down, there is no way
to keep 6:1, because all the expectation turns to another direction, and
desperately need to change dollars. It is proved again and again in all the
black days of the stock market and exchange market.
Summary:
Currently, we can not do much to either increase and decrease the currency
rate. Either way to make a big change will bring the economy to the dead end
. From the perspective of people, we have already in the dilemma, either
suffer the pain from inflation or face the risk of unemployment. There is no
way to save both, consider now either the inflation is fast and the actual
unemployment is severe.
a*s
12 楼
从社会底层人民的眼光来看人民币币值：
人民币升值： 进口货价格降低，可是底层人民没有余钱买进口货（大部分是奢侈品）
。而出口竞争力降低，很多民工将失业。
人民币贬值：出口竞争力提高，可是民工工资未必会涨。用人民币换算的进口能源和粮
食价格升高， 底层人民生活更加困难。
所以不管人民币升值或者贬值，受益的都是食物链上层。而底层人民总是受害的。
【在 A******s 的大作中提到】
: 这是一个很有意义的话题。我对经济是绝对的门外汉，但就让咱们从门外汉的角度来分
: 析一些人民币升值或是贬值的前景。
: 1）如果人民币大幅度升值至3：1。相对于其他国家人民而言，会有相当数量的中国人
: 的收入水平在世界范围内也处于富裕阶层，也会有相当一批拥有巨量现金的中国企业变
: 得拥有超级的购买力。中国对进口食品，能源，矿产，奢侈品的需求更是会有惊人的增
: 长，从而造成这些产品的国际价格持续上涨。而价格上涨的后果是：1）中国需要消耗
: 大量外汇储备；2）其他国家货币购买力的相对减弱和人民生活水平下降---这有可能引
: 发其他国家的社会问题从而导致这些国家采取反制措施。人民币升值将不可避免的给中
: 国大量依靠廉价劳动力的出口加工企业以沉重打击。如果高附加值的产品出口不能迅速
: 赶上，将造成中国整体的出口创汇能力降低。同时大量外资企业也会因为人力成本的快
人民币升值： 进口货价格降低，可是底层人民没有余钱买进口货（大部分是奢侈品）
。而出口竞争力降低，很多民工将失业。
人民币贬值：出口竞争力提高，可是民工工资未必会涨。用人民币换算的进口能源和粮
食价格升高， 底层人民生活更加困难。
所以不管人民币升值或者贬值，受益的都是食物链上层。而底层人民总是受害的。
【在 A******s 的大作中提到】
: 这是一个很有意义的话题。我对经济是绝对的门外汉，但就让咱们从门外汉的角度来分
: 析一些人民币升值或是贬值的前景。
: 1）如果人民币大幅度升值至3：1。相对于其他国家人民而言，会有相当数量的中国人
: 的收入水平在世界范围内也处于富裕阶层，也会有相当一批拥有巨量现金的中国企业变
: 得拥有超级的购买力。中国对进口食品，能源，矿产，奢侈品的需求更是会有惊人的增
: 长，从而造成这些产品的国际价格持续上涨。而价格上涨的后果是：1）中国需要消耗
: 大量外汇储备；2）其他国家货币购买力的相对减弱和人民生活水平下降---这有可能引
: 发其他国家的社会问题从而导致这些国家采取反制措施。人民币升值将不可避免的给中
: 国大量依靠廉价劳动力的出口加工企业以沉重打击。如果高附加值的产品出口不能迅速
: 赶上，将造成中国整体的出口创汇能力降低。同时大量外资企业也会因为人力成本的快
b*k
13 楼
Don't do it. We are short of power playing it. No enough elite, no good
system of regulation. Forget about it. The system would be very vulnerable
and easy to attack, if we allow free exchange.
The high officers always say much more than they can understand and do.
从长远来看，中国政府应该允许人民币和美元在境内的自由兑换（也就是允许汇率的自
由浮动）
system of regulation. Forget about it. The system would be very vulnerable
and easy to attack, if we allow free exchange.
The high officers always say much more than they can understand and do.
从长远来看，中国政府应该允许人民币和美元在境内的自由兑换（也就是允许汇率的自
由浮动）
b*k
14 楼
Don't do it. We are short of power playing it. No enough elite, no good
system of regulation. Forget about it. The system would be very vulnerable
and easy to attack, if we allow free exchange.
The high officers always say much more than they can understand and do.
从长远来看，中国政府应该允许人民币和美元在境内的自由兑换（也就是允许汇率的自
由浮动）
system of regulation. Forget about it. The system would be very vulnerable
and easy to attack, if we allow free exchange.
The high officers always say much more than they can understand and do.
从长远来看，中国政府应该允许人民币和美元在境内的自由兑换（也就是允许汇率的自
由浮动）
A*s
15 楼
I think we should be able to closely monitor and control hot money flowing
in and out of our border. Is it that difficult?
vulnerable
【在 b*********k 的大作中提到】
: Don't do it. We are short of power playing it. No enough elite, no good
: system of regulation. Forget about it. The system would be very vulnerable
: and easy to attack, if we allow free exchange.
: The high officers always say much more than they can understand and do.
: 从长远来看，中国政府应该允许人民币和美元在境内的自由兑换（也就是允许汇率的自
: 由浮动）
in and out of our border. Is it that difficult?
vulnerable
【在 b*********k 的大作中提到】
: Don't do it. We are short of power playing it. No enough elite, no good
: system of regulation. Forget about it. The system would be very vulnerable
: and easy to attack, if we allow free exchange.
: The high officers always say much more than they can understand and do.
: 从长远来看，中国政府应该允许人民币和美元在境内的自由兑换（也就是允许汇率的自
: 由浮动）
b*k
16 楼
It is difficult, because there is motivation to go in and out from both
sides. Hongkong is one channel of leakage.
If someone outside want to get the RMB, but no one inside wants to get the
dollars, then don't worry even without any monitor.
However, we know "domestic" are short of ways to invest, but full of money (
RMB). (1) not profitable to invest manufacturing. (2) no way to enter the
monopolized industry (aviation, energy, communication network, and etc.) (3)
very restrict control in housing market from 2011. (4) uncertain return in
the stock market (also risky). Moreover, the inflation is very fast.
Domestics hopes to get out, at least get part of the RMB out to hedge the
risk. For example, they can invest the Hongkong stock market, real estate,
and etc. Also the exchange rate of HK to Dollar is fixed. Why not?
Therefore, if hot money wants to flow in, it is not difficult.
【在 A******s 的大作中提到】
: I think we should be able to closely monitor and control hot money flowing
: in and out of our border. Is it that difficult?
:
: vulnerable
sides. Hongkong is one channel of leakage.
If someone outside want to get the RMB, but no one inside wants to get the
dollars, then don't worry even without any monitor.
However, we know "domestic" are short of ways to invest, but full of money (
RMB). (1) not profitable to invest manufacturing. (2) no way to enter the
monopolized industry (aviation, energy, communication network, and etc.) (3)
very restrict control in housing market from 2011. (4) uncertain return in
the stock market (also risky). Moreover, the inflation is very fast.
Domestics hopes to get out, at least get part of the RMB out to hedge the
risk. For example, they can invest the Hongkong stock market, real estate,
and etc. Also the exchange rate of HK to Dollar is fixed. Why not?
Therefore, if hot money wants to flow in, it is not difficult.
【在 A******s 的大作中提到】
: I think we should be able to closely monitor and control hot money flowing
: in and out of our border. Is it that difficult?
:
: vulnerable
t*o
17 楼
30-50比1是不可能的
1：10可能，但是13年可能偏早
我估计是15年
【在 u*****n 的大作中提到】
: 我的估计。之后会人民币会快速贬值。2015：３０~50：１。
: 现在的汇率是不可持续性的。到一定程度，中国一定坚持不住，不然社会会大乱。
1：10可能，但是13年可能偏早
我估计是15年
【在 u*****n 的大作中提到】
: 我的估计。之后会人民币会快速贬值。2015：３０~50：１。
: 现在的汇率是不可持续性的。到一定程度，中国一定坚持不住，不然社会会大乱。
A*s
18 楼
The hit to the export-oriented industry caused by RMB appreciation might
be worth it. At least, I still think it is much better than the bleak
prospect of sky-high inflation caused by RMB depreciatioin.
How many people are employed in the export-oriented industry? What is
its percentage of the total labor force? I suppose not much. Plus, China
has always had a very high unemployment rate (especially among poor
farmers in the country side) for a very long time, and the unemployment
rate among these poor farmers has never been a major concern of the
Chinese government because their voice is still very weak. How much has
RMB appreciated from 8.3:1 to 6.5:1? What is its effect to the
unemployment rate so far? Has the Chinese government been concerned
about it? NOT MUCH. And as a fact, employment in the the domestic-
market-oriented industry, especially in the service sector, has been
increasing rapidly.
Another fact, Chinese people's life has been increasing affected by
prices of raw materials and bulk goods on the international market. This
includes both the impoverished farmers in the country side and middle-
class workers in cities, and the so-called middle-class's voice is much
louder and worries the government much more. Therefore, inflation is the
number ONE enemy to China's economy, social stability, and legitimacy
of the Chinese government.
The evolution of RMB's exchange rate will never be one directional. The
best scenario, IMHO, would be a slow and gradual appreciation and then
it stabilizes at certain point, when and at what rate I have no clue.
increasing
cost of
rate is 6
2RMB for
【在 b*********k 的大作中提到】
: You are talking about another question: whether shall we increase or
: decrease the currency rate right now. It seems you might prefer increasing
: it to 3:1. However, it is another trap.
: Benefit:
: (1) to somewhat reduce the pain of inflation, especially control the cost of
: import oil, iron ore, and etc.
: (2) Rich people can buy more luxury good and invest abroad.
: Nightmare:
: (1) destroy the export, leading to unemployment. let's say now the rate is 6
: each. Now consider 3:1, we at least need to sell at $3.34 to make it even.
be worth it. At least, I still think it is much better than the bleak
prospect of sky-high inflation caused by RMB depreciatioin.
How many people are employed in the export-oriented industry? What is
its percentage of the total labor force? I suppose not much. Plus, China
has always had a very high unemployment rate (especially among poor
farmers in the country side) for a very long time, and the unemployment
rate among these poor farmers has never been a major concern of the
Chinese government because their voice is still very weak. How much has
RMB appreciated from 8.3:1 to 6.5:1? What is its effect to the
unemployment rate so far? Has the Chinese government been concerned
about it? NOT MUCH. And as a fact, employment in the the domestic-
market-oriented industry, especially in the service sector, has been
increasing rapidly.
Another fact, Chinese people's life has been increasing affected by
prices of raw materials and bulk goods on the international market. This
includes both the impoverished farmers in the country side and middle-
class workers in cities, and the so-called middle-class's voice is much
louder and worries the government much more. Therefore, inflation is the
number ONE enemy to China's economy, social stability, and legitimacy
of the Chinese government.
The evolution of RMB's exchange rate will never be one directional. The
best scenario, IMHO, would be a slow and gradual appreciation and then
it stabilizes at certain point, when and at what rate I have no clue.
increasing
cost of
rate is 6
2RMB for
【在 b*********k 的大作中提到】
: You are talking about another question: whether shall we increase or
: decrease the currency rate right now. It seems you might prefer increasing
: it to 3:1. However, it is another trap.
: Benefit:
: (1) to somewhat reduce the pain of inflation, especially control the cost of
: import oil, iron ore, and etc.
: (2) Rich people can buy more luxury good and invest abroad.
: Nightmare:
: (1) destroy the export, leading to unemployment. let's say now the rate is 6
: each. Now consider 3:1, we at least need to sell at $3.34 to make it even.
t*o
19 楼
失业的多数都老弱病残，这些人很难去工厂打工，土共也不会管的
前些年出口及相关行业拉动中国70%GDP
你可以去查数据
【在 A******s 的大作中提到】
: The hit to the export-oriented industry caused by RMB appreciation might
: be worth it. At least, I still think it is much better than the bleak
: prospect of sky-high inflation caused by RMB depreciatioin.
: How many people are employed in the export-oriented industry? What is
: its percentage of the total labor force? I suppose not much. Plus, China
: has always had a very high unemployment rate (especially among poor
: farmers in the country side) for a very long time, and the unemployment
: rate among these poor farmers has never been a major concern of the
: Chinese government because their voice is still very weak. How much has
: RMB appreciated from 8.3:1 to 6.5:1? What is its effect to the
前些年出口及相关行业拉动中国70%GDP
你可以去查数据
【在 A******s 的大作中提到】
: The hit to the export-oriented industry caused by RMB appreciation might
: be worth it. At least, I still think it is much better than the bleak
: prospect of sky-high inflation caused by RMB depreciatioin.
: How many people are employed in the export-oriented industry? What is
: its percentage of the total labor force? I suppose not much. Plus, China
: has always had a very high unemployment rate (especially among poor
: farmers in the country side) for a very long time, and the unemployment
: rate among these poor farmers has never been a major concern of the
: Chinese government because their voice is still very weak. How much has
: RMB appreciated from 8.3:1 to 6.5:1? What is its effect to the
b*k
20 楼
It is not easy to tradeoff two pains: inflation and layoff. For example, a
company experiencing an economic crisis offers two solutions:
(1) all the employees cut off 10% salary
(2) 10% employees laid off.
Someone might prefer the first option, if they feel they are likely to be
fired. The others might like the second one.
Also, our current situation: even though we sacrifies the export and
employment, we just slow down the inflation, not stop it. It is aweful.
company experiencing an economic crisis offers two solutions:
(1) all the employees cut off 10% salary
(2) 10% employees laid off.
Someone might prefer the first option, if they feel they are likely to be
fired. The others might like the second one.
Also, our current situation: even though we sacrifies the export and
employment, we just slow down the inflation, not stop it. It is aweful.
d*2
21 楼
重大wsn利好消息。
f*g
22 楼
一个概念性错误：“允许人民币和美元在境内的自由兑换”（capital-account
convertibility)！=“允许汇率的自由浮动”(floating exchange rate)。这是两码事
，虽然有一定的联系。
一个例子，在香港，港元和美元自由兑换，但是港元兑美元汇率是固定的。
【在 b*********k 的大作中提到】
: Don't do it. We are short of power playing it. No enough elite, no good
: system of regulation. Forget about it. The system would be very vulnerable
: and easy to attack, if we allow free exchange.
: The high officers always say much more than they can understand and do.
: 从长远来看，中国政府应该允许人民币和美元在境内的自由兑换（也就是允许汇率的自
: 由浮动）
convertibility)！=“允许汇率的自由浮动”(floating exchange rate)。这是两码事
，虽然有一定的联系。
一个例子，在香港，港元和美元自由兑换，但是港元兑美元汇率是固定的。
【在 b*********k 的大作中提到】
: Don't do it. We are short of power playing it. No enough elite, no good
: system of regulation. Forget about it. The system would be very vulnerable
: and easy to attack, if we allow free exchange.
: The high officers always say much more than they can understand and do.
: 从长远来看，中国政府应该允许人民币和美元在境内的自由兑换（也就是允许汇率的自
: 由浮动）
b*k
23 楼
Ok, what I mean is “允许人民币和美元在境内的自由兑换”（capital-account
convertibility).
【在 f*******g 的大作中提到】
: 一个概念性错误：“允许人民币和美元在境内的自由兑换”（capital-account
: convertibility)！=“允许汇率的自由浮动”(floating exchange rate)。这是两码事
: ，虽然有一定的联系。
: 一个例子，在香港，港元和美元自由兑换，但是港元兑美元汇率是固定的。
convertibility).
【在 f*******g 的大作中提到】
: 一个概念性错误：“允许人民币和美元在境内的自由兑换”（capital-account
: convertibility)！=“允许汇率的自由浮动”(floating exchange rate)。这是两码事
: ，虽然有一定的联系。
: 一个例子，在香港，港元和美元自由兑换，但是港元兑美元汇率是固定的。
n*8
24 楼
莫急，中国社会一定会大乱的。 到那时可一定要抓住机会哦。
a*l
25 楼
9你们说的轻松，央行调个0.1都是小心翼翼的你们是动不动就调个4,10。
【在 u*****n 的大作中提到】
: 我的估计。之后会人民币会快速贬值。2015：３０~50：１。
: 现在的汇率是不可持续性的。到一定程度，中国一定坚持不住，不然社会会大乱。
【在 u*****n 的大作中提到】
: 我的估计。之后会人民币会快速贬值。2015：３０~50：１。
: 现在的汇率是不可持续性的。到一定程度，中国一定坚持不住，不然社会会大乱。
a*l
26 楼
9你们说的轻松，央行调个0.1都是小心翼翼的你们是动不动就调个4,10。
【在 u*****n 的大作中提到】
: 我的估计。之后会人民币会快速贬值。2015：３０~50：１。
: 现在的汇率是不可持续性的。到一定程度，中国一定坚持不住，不然社会会大乱。
【在 u*****n 的大作中提到】
: 我的估计。之后会人民币会快速贬值。2015：３０~50：１。
: 现在的汇率是不可持续性的。到一定程度，中国一定坚持不住，不然社会会大乱。
z*e
27 楼
傻逼加脑残
【在 u*****n 的大作中提到】
: 我的估计。之后会人民币会快速贬值。2015：３０~50：１。
: 现在的汇率是不可持续性的。到一定程度，中国一定坚持不住，不然社会会大乱。
【在 u*****n 的大作中提到】
: 我的估计。之后会人民币会快速贬值。2015：３０~50：１。
: 现在的汇率是不可持续性的。到一定程度，中国一定坚持不住，不然社会会大乱。
y*t
28 楼
2012年地球都毁灭鸟。。。
【在 u*****n 的大作中提到】
: 我的估计。之后会人民币会快速贬值。2015：３０~50：１。
: 现在的汇率是不可持续性的。到一定程度，中国一定坚持不住，不然社会会大乱。
【在 u*****n 的大作中提到】
: 我的估计。之后会人民币会快速贬值。2015：３０~50：１。
: 现在的汇率是不可持续性的。到一定程度，中国一定坚持不住，不然社会会大乱。
b*n
29 楼
These 30:1 and 3:1 people are all fucking retards trying to impress and
attract eyeballs by claiming something outrageous.
The rate will stay between 6 and 7 in the next 2-3 years. Period.
The Chinese gov sucks, but not THAT dumb.
attract eyeballs by claiming something outrageous.
The rate will stay between 6 and 7 in the next 2-3 years. Period.
The Chinese gov sucks, but not THAT dumb.
a*r
30 楼
看着这种脑残文我就蛋疼。。。。。。
看见没有， 人民币升值，让北美WSN们寝食难安，坐立不安了。。。。。。
看见没有， 人民币升值，让北美WSN们寝食难安，坐立不安了。。。。。。
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