SPY, DIA and QQQQ are all very close in terms of readings. Bear in mind that this is a pre-election, political rally, with significant artificial price-lift. The market appears very much over-bought, however, so it may not look good ( for the bulls) right after the election, as price-lift is no longer useful. Always scale in and scale out, whether bearish or bullish, that way you don' t miss the ride and can also average down your cost if prices get even more extreme (i.e. favorable) before reve
SPY,DIA 的情况也一样 SYMBOL, DATE, PRICE, FORECAST, PERCENT SPY, 20081031, 97.1100, -4.1045, -4.2 SYMBOL, DATE, PRICE, FORECAST, PERCENT DIA, 20081031, 93.6900, -4.2612, -4.5 Any and all information presented herein are for your information (FYI) only . They are not specific recommendations or advice, and must not be construed as such. Stock and option markets involve high risk and total wipe-out of capital is possible. Be sure to
【在 M*****8 的大作中提到】 : The following message was posted on Saturday evening (发信站: BBS 未名空间站 : (Sat Nov 1 19:12:24 2008) but somehow disappeared. : So I am posting it once more. : : 最新的预测显示在星期五(20081031),股市遭受强力的人为干预,原先预期的短期百 : 分之十二跌幅,突然一天内锐减几乎三分之二。 : 这种情况很少见,但无论如何,对熊有利的因素几乎已不存在。短期市场下跌已无把 : 握,即使跌,幅度也有限,约百分之四到五。短期低风险的卖空机会需要的是百分之减 : 九或更减。 : SYMBOL, DATE, PRICE, FORECAST, PERCENT
M*8
9 楼
股市还未到更超买(OverBought, i.e. -9% or thereabouts), 今天就提早开始大跌。 除非有强力人为因素,否则将意味市场实际情况比预测的还熊。 但既然跌了,根据过去情形,要到百分之加六以上(i.e. +6% or better)才有比较安全 的反弹。 所以心中估计目前市场可能还会再跌一两天,但这只是暂时的猜测,还要看最新的预测 给出的结果是如何,之后才会比较了解未来情况。
【在 M*****8 的大作中提到】 : : SPY,DIA 的情况也一样 : SYMBOL, DATE, PRICE, FORECAST, PERCENT : SPY, 20081031, 97.1100, -4.1045, -4.2 : SYMBOL, DATE, PRICE, FORECAST, PERCENT : DIA, 20081031, 93.6900, -4.2612, -4.5 : Any and all information presented herein are for your information (FYI) only : . They are not specific recommendations or advice, and must not be construed : as such. Stock and option markets involve high risk and total wipe-out of : capital is possible. Be sure to
M*8
10 楼
Politically speaking, you're right and I thought about that also. But I was referring to the normal extreme zones of the forecast readings. The numbers did not reach there. Not that I was surprised, since the market was overbought, though certainly not extremely so, based on last night's forecasts, which indicated a magnitude of 3.5 to 5% decline in the event of a price decline. I would have preferred the percent to be closer to -9 or better, for a good short-term sell signal. If the sell-off