推荐一牛股续: XNPT, FDA approval date - 未名空间MITBBS历史存档

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推荐一牛股续: XNPT, FDA approval date

推荐一牛股续: XNPT, FDA approval date# Stock

b*h2010-02-01 08:02

1 楼

这是我第二次提醒.
网上根据XNPT 批后从GSK拿到的第一笔钱算出的可能股价:
====================
Potential XNPT PPS we should get if we get approved:
It currently has 30 mils shares outstanding. So book value per share earning
is: 5/0.3 = $16.6
EPS: 166 * 10 = 166.
So the potential PPS = current PPS + 166 = $184.
If we exclude sales milestones:
book value per share earning is: 2.5/0.3 = $8
EPS: 8 * 10 = 80
potential PPS = current PPS + 80 = $98
===============================
如果只用XNPT的BOOK VALUE 来算, 也应该到$26.如果买家大量增加,有可能到
以前的最高点出$

c*x2010-02-01 08:02

2 楼

earning
It's funny it has not started the run-up yet with only 5 days away from so-
called FDA decision. A straddle looks much better than pure long at this
time. Me thinks it will get delayed.

【在 b******h 的大作中提到】

: 这是我第二次提醒.
: 网上根据XNPT 批后从GSK拿到的第一笔钱算出的可能股价:
: ====================
: Potential XNPT PPS we should get if we get approved:
: It currently has 30 mils shares outstanding. So book value per share earning
: is: 5/0.3 = $16.6
: EPS: 166 * 10 = 166.
: So the potential PPS = current PPS + 166 = $184.
: If we exclude sales milestones:
: book value per share earning is: 2.5/0.3 = $8

b*h2010-02-01 08:02

3 楼

如果delay，预测一下股价是多少

b*h2010-02-01 08:02

4 楼

我觉得这次不可能延迟了，ＦＤＡ只要ＲＥＭＳ，　不要新的ＤＡＴＡ．
这次如果股价上２５，　我拿五个金灯．　我觉得胜算很大．　等这看我的好消息吧．

L*n2010-02-01 08:02

5 楼

"The annual prescription for RLS medication is in excess of 5 million in the
U.S. Dopamine agonists, which are the most common form of medication to
treat restless legs syndrome, account for more than 90% share of the
prescription, while gabapentin account for less than 5% share."
不知道你的一年5亿的销售是哪得来的？这个市场没那么大的。

g*t2010-02-01 08:02

6 楼

k*42010-02-01 08:02

7 楼

I suspect the boss of this company is your dad

b*h2010-02-01 08:02

8 楼

XenoPort inked the license agreement for XP13512 with Astellas in December
2005 and with GlaxoSmithKline in February 2007. XenoPort has received a
total of $208 million to date as upfront and milestone payments from
Astellas and GlaxoSmithKline. Under the terms of the collaboration
agreements, XenoPort is eligible to receive an additional $227 million in
clinical and regulatory milestones and $290 million in sales milestone
payments.

the

【在 L****n 的大作中提到】

: "The annual prescription for RLS medication is in excess of 5 million in the
: U.S. Dopamine agonists, which are the most common form of medication to
: treat restless legs syndrome, account for more than 90% share of the
: prescription, while gabapentin account for less than 5% share."
: 不知道你的一年5亿的销售是哪得来的？这个市场没那么大的。

L*n2010-02-01 08:02

9 楼

that didn't answer my question. the potential market for this drug is not
that big. FDA approval of course will pump this stock but i doubt it would
be that much. most likely priced in already. If the prospect is dim, this
stock is in the single digit category.

【在 b******h 的大作中提到】

: XenoPort inked the license agreement for XP13512 with Astellas in December
: 2005 and with GlaxoSmithKline in February 2007. XenoPort has received a
: total of $208 million to date as upfront and milestone payments from
: Astellas and GlaxoSmithKline. Under the terms of the collaboration
: agreements, XenoPort is eligible to receive an additional $227 million in
: clinical and regulatory milestones and $290 million in sales milestone
: payments.
:
: the

b*h2010-02-01 08:02

10 楼

fda是很难预测的，这样都不到1倍的回报率就赌，risk／return太不合算了。
还是小心为好。

【在 b******h 的大作中提到】

: 我觉得这次不可能延迟了，ＦＤＡ只要ＲＥＭＳ，　不要新的ＤＡＴＡ．
: 这次如果股价上２５，　我拿五个金灯．　我觉得胜算很大．　等这看我的好消息吧．

D*92010-02-01 08:02

11 楼

be careful about sell on news. I will not in, it's too risky

b*h2010-02-01 08:02

12 楼

XNPT jumped $1.5 today. Who followed me today?
My 7k (average 18.5) gave me one gold lamp today.
XNPT will go to $22 pre-approval.
Some people are always cannot grasp what others are offering, sigh...
Winning is the only thing that rule...
I believe someone might say one thing and do another. You still have chance to get in tomorrow if market is down, but XNPT may run up still no matter what...

b*h2010-02-01 08:02

13 楼

hehe , congratulate for the nice pre-run.
but I will still recommend you to take some profit before the FDA day. bet
on FDA decision is very risk.

chance to get in tomorrow if market is down, but XNPT may run up still no
matter what...

【在 b******h 的大作中提到】

: XNPT jumped $1.5 today. Who followed me today?
: My 7k (average 18.5) gave me one gold lamp today.
: XNPT will go to $22 pre-approval.
: Some people are always cannot grasp what others are offering, sigh...
: Winning is the only thing that rule...
: I believe someone might say one thing and do another. You still have chance to get in tomorrow if market is down, but XNPT may run up still no matter what...

y*12010-02-01 08:02

14 楼

快跑把。。。赚一点是一点。真的要赌？

c*x2010-02-01 08:02

15 楼

I hope you had purchased puts to protect yourself. FDA just denied the
application. XNPT will drop to around $5 tomorrow. Your 5000 shares at $18.
5 is a large gamble. Hope you have better luck next time.

earning

【在 b******h 的大作中提到】

g*u2010-02-01 08:02

16 楼

哎呀，这个情况很重要!
咋办？

18.

【在 c****x 的大作中提到】

: I hope you had purchased puts to protect yourself. FDA just denied the
: application. XNPT will drop to around $5 tomorrow. Your 5000 shares at $18.
: 5 is a large gamble. Hope you have better luck next time.
:
: earning

k*n2010-02-01 08:02

17 楼

事实再次证明，长篇大论顶P用
不赌仍是上策

【在 g*****u 的大作中提到】

: 哎呀，这个情况很重要!
: 咋办？
:
: 18.

H*i2010-02-01 08:02

18 楼

我真得要感谢上帝! 我前几天全仓买了XNPT, 涨了没有卖, 跌了也没有卖, 今天中午算
了一下, 拿了两个多星期才赚四百块不到, 主力动向非常奇怪, 看不懂, 一生气卖了,
现在是全部cash.

g*u2010-02-01 08:02

19 楼

Whew :-)
This would call for some baozi.
Lining up for baozi now.

,

【在 H******i 的大作中提到】

: 我真得要感谢上帝! 我前几天全仓买了XNPT, 涨了没有卖, 跌了也没有卖, 今天中午算
: 了一下, 拿了两个多星期才赚四百块不到, 主力动向非常奇怪, 看不懂, 一生气卖了,
: 现在是全部cash.

s*h2010-02-01 08:02

20 楼

买这些股，就如同买彩票。

l*r2010-02-01 08:02

21 楼

全舱？一天一共才交易了322K shares, 您一个人买了1/3?

,

【在 H******i 的大作中提到】

g*u2010-02-01 08:02

22 楼

全仓=>100K？

【在 l*******r 的大作中提到】

: 全舱？一天一共才交易了322K shares, 您一个人买了1/3?
:
: ,

l*r2010-02-01 08:02

23 楼

322K shares, $20/share
you 低估大牛了。。

【在 g*****u 的大作中提到】

: 全仓=>100K？

m*w2010-02-01 08:02

24 楼

2m在板上也就小牛吧？大牛都10m以上的.

【在 l*******r 的大作中提到】

: 322K shares, $20/share
: you 低估大牛了。。

g*u2010-02-01 08:02

25 楼

水深，水太深。
没看出来赫尔辛基是这么这么大的牛。
他发了个包子给我，呵呵。

【在 l*******r 的大作中提到】

: 322K shares, $20/share
: you 低估大牛了。。

l*r2010-02-01 08:02

26 楼

恩，低调的有米大牛。

【在 g*****u 的大作中提到】

: 水深，水太深。
: 没看出来赫尔辛基是这么这么大的牛。
: 他发了个包子给我，呵呵。

M*e2010-02-01 08:02

27 楼

有10M还会all-in然后all-out，佩服佩服。一定是还有1B的家产，这个也就是随便玩玩。

【在 g*****u 的大作中提到】

: 水深，水太深。
: 没看出来赫尔辛基是这么这么大的牛。
: 他发了个包子给我，呵呵。

g*u2010-02-01 08:02

28 楼

Hey, it's late at night, one has got to appreciate his joke.
A fine sense of humor in its own right is worth a million bucks.

玩。

【在 M****e 的大作中提到】

: 有10M还会all-in然后all-out，佩服佩服。一定是还有1B的家产，这个也就是随便玩玩。

L*n2010-02-01 08:02

29 楼

外科， down 63%. 又一个id消失了。

t*72010-02-01 08:02

30 楼

6.65?

H*i2010-02-01 08:02

31 楼

嘿嘿, 没有那么多, 但是肯定是我股海生涯中最惊险的一次经历了. 所有专家都认为肯
定会FDA approval. 所以我下了大赌注. 但是股价和资金动向显然与所谓专家的意见是
矛盾的, 不跑岂不是自讨苦吃.

【在 l*******r 的大作中提到】

: 全舱？一天一共才交易了322K shares, 您一个人买了1/3?
:
: ,

c*x2010-02-01 08:02

32 楼

"股市没有专家, 只有赢家和输家!" --- 周立波
How true! Those so-called experts are nothing but big-mouths blabbering non
-sense. The sooner you realize this, the sooner you are better off.

【在 H******i 的大作中提到】

: 嘿嘿, 没有那么多, 但是肯定是我股海生涯中最惊险的一次经历了. 所有专家都认为肯
: 定会FDA approval. 所以我下了大赌注. 但是股价和资金动向显然与所谓专家的意见是
: 矛盾的, 不跑岂不是自讨苦吃.