UNG is the pick - 未名空间MITBBS历史存档

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UNG is the pick

UNG is the pick# Stock

R*s2010-03-04 08:03

1 楼

time to buy!!! dude.
I don't think there are any fundamental changes on supply and demand of NG.
March is the shoulder month. No one is using NG to fire the peakers now. But
wait until May/June, the price of power will be determined by the price of
NG. Coal is out now, and utilites are scraping those old inefficient coal
units.
All in............ hehe......

g*u2010-03-04 08:03

2 楼

Gas for what?
Coal fired generator is the main mode of electricity production. Gas is too
expensive, and only used too provide peak kilowatts, as it can started and
shut down relatively easily.

.
But
of

【在 R********s 的大作中提到】

: time to buy!!! dude.
: I don't think there are any fundamental changes on supply and demand of NG.
: March is the shoulder month. No one is using NG to fire the peakers now. But
: wait until May/June, the price of power will be determined by the price of
: NG. Coal is out now, and utilites are scraping those old inefficient coal
: units.
: All in............ hehe......

i*y2010-03-04 08:03

3 楼

The weakness of NG came from the president, who is insisting on nuclear
instead of NG which is supported by Bush as alternative energy/fuel.
Current supply/demand does not matter that much.

.
But
of

【在 R********s 的大作中提到】

l*r2010-03-04 08:03

4 楼

Natural gas is still in the uptrend. It rise from March low 2.62 to today's
4.77. UNG for some reason cannot track the natural gas price at all.
So, if you are bullish on natural gas, buy some shale gas companies. Don't
stick to UNG.

.
But
of

【在 R********s 的大作中提到】

g*q2010-03-04 08:03

5 楼

天然气应该是快到底了。其实今天公布的库存比去年同期低了很多，跟5年平均已经差
不多了，虽然是因为天气冷，虽然可能还above expectation，但是消化掉库存总是好
事，不应该价格创新低的。如果夏天再热一点就更牛了。
不过UNG持有短期期货太多，赔掉以后怕捂不回来。我现在是继续吃进MIR/NRG一类电力
股票，他们都有不少煤电或者核电站(收益跟天然气价格正比)，而且都是靠做空未来几
年的天然气来hedge，财务状况还可以，股价非常便宜，以后天然气涨的话他们肯定会
暴涨，即使天然气维持目前状况2年也跌不下去太多。

D*92010-03-04 08:03

6 楼

冬天已经过去了，天然气在下一个冬天来之前，没有太多前途。

g*q2010-03-04 08:03

7 楼

八马对NG和煤电是个大问题。但是核电和替代能源还是有很多困难，核电站10年都建不
起来，只要经济恢复，发电量恢复增长，NG和煤电挡不住的。

【在 i**y 的大作中提到】

: The weakness of NG came from the president, who is insisting on nuclear
: instead of NG which is supported by Bush as alternative energy/fuel.
: Current supply/demand does not matter that much.
:
: .
: But
: of

g*q2010-03-04 08:03

8 楼

Future都是跌的，去年的这时候Apr2010 contract要5-6块呢，spot price去掉季节因
素后也基本没涨。

's
t

【在 l*******r 的大作中提到】

: Natural gas is still in the uptrend. It rise from March low 2.62 to today's
: 4.77. UNG for some reason cannot track the natural gas price at all.
: So, if you are bullish on natural gas, buy some shale gas companies. Don't
: stick to UNG.
:
: .
: But
: of

R*s2010-03-04 08:03

9 楼

it takes many many years to build Nuclear units and costs you an arm and leg
to do so.
US haven't built any nuclear for the past 30 yrs and will not have a new one
for next 10 yrs.

【在 i**y 的大作中提到】