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McCaskill is definitely right on synthetic CDOs
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McCaskill is definitely right on synthetic CDOs# Stock
l*u
1 楼
我想这就是所谓的父爱或者母爱吧。
有了孩子后，看到孩子是那么样的小不点，会觉得生命的脆弱，也觉得生命的神奇。有
时候捧在手心里，都觉得会害怕不见了，那是一种怎么样的感觉。
然后再走在路上，看到那些小孩子就会忍不住朝他们笑，忍不住和他们玩，忍不住喜欢
这些可爱的孩子，好像那个孩子就是自己的孩子一样。
看到可爱的孩子，会觉得开心，心会无端的温柔，看到一些孩子遭遇不幸和伤害，就会
难过，心很痛。
以前没有这种感觉的，只有有了孩子才会突然就有了，有时候看到别人的孩子受伤，或
者被父母打，都会难过。
当然，孩子也有不乖的时候，也会偶尔忍不住，会骂会体罚，可是体罚的时候，觉得心
也难受，孩子难过，会哭，体罚的自己会更难过。
这也许就是做了父母的感受把。
avatar
m*6
2 楼
PD：11/2013
RD：03/29/2018
ID : 10/31/2018
Approved : 10/31/2018
Card received: 11/8/2018
休斯顿面试，中午的面试，提前了大概三十分钟到的。赶上万圣节，前台穿的犀利古怪
的，看了interview的notice就让旁边去等，大概等了40分钟左右，被叫去到14号窗口
边的小门。 一个和蔼黑人大叔出来迎接，打招呼就跟着进去，很多的小办公室，走了
有一会才到他的办公室。互相介绍后签律师没来的waiver，之后就问有没在外面照相打
指纹。我们没弄，他就现场照相打指纹。然后拿出两大摞材料，交上interview的
notice，要了evl，出生公证还有结婚公证。期间还主动交上ld的新护照。大叔仔细看
看就在材料上stamp估计就是说看过原件了。然后就是闲聊一下结婚证为什么这么多页
。。。我们还交了娃的出生证明。。。之后就是一堆yes/no的问题，期间有一些小的聊
天。。。然后他就说，他觉得他已经have everything了，但是还要review一下，特意
强调他今天一定review，如果有问题会联系。。我有点懵，问了个不着边的问题，ld就
开玩笑说要吃过午饭再review呀，take time。 大叔很激动说希望他的boss也这么想，
然后他就把我们送出去，临走说绿卡可能要三周才能拿到，制作需要时间。。。 下午
回去，新系统啥也查不着，但是老系统直接说case approve了，之后就是等到今天拿卡
了。 终于毕业了，祝大家早日拿卡！！
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v*e
3 楼
she is rignt on the money by saying it's just a bet dreamed up out of thin
air.
avatar
t*t
4 楼
恭喜！！
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I*e
5 楼
Well, CDOs are asset based security so by definition it is not dreamed up.
The fact that these bad loans have poor credit quality is irrelevant. It's
up to the buyers and sellers of the loans to decide what's a fair price.

【在 v****e 的大作中提到】
: she is rignt on the money by saying it's just a bet dreamed up out of thin
: air.
avatar
b*k
6 楼
恭喜啊！
avatar
v*e
7 楼
synthetic ones are dreamed up -- synthetic = shadow/cloned/dreamed up.

【在 I***e 的大作中提到】
: Well, CDOs are asset based security so by definition it is not dreamed up.
: The fact that these bad loans have poor credit quality is irrelevant. It's
: up to the buyers and sellers of the loans to decide what's a fair price.
avatar
d*m
8 楼
cong
avatar
g*h
9 楼
I am just curious, if goldman sucks did anything like what Magnetar did?
That is, create the CDO, sell most of it to their customers and buy CDS
on the whole CDO? If the CDO got belly up, they win big with the CDS. If
this is the case, it is definitely a fraud.

up.
It's

【在 I***e 的大作中提到】
: Well, CDOs are asset based security so by definition it is not dreamed up.
: The fact that these bad loans have poor credit quality is irrelevant. It's
: up to the buyers and sellers of the loans to decide what's a fair price.
avatar
z*1
10 楼
恭喜楼主
avatar
I*e
11 楼
Synthetic = repackaged + sliced and diced. They are still based on the
underlying cash flows. They aren't dreamed up even when they aren't plain
vanilla subprimes. The cause of all the financial trouble isn't the
packaging but is mostly related to the poor qualities of the original loans.
You can't call pigs real, while pork sausages "dreamed-up"... :)

【在 v****e 的大作中提到】
: synthetic ones are dreamed up -- synthetic = shadow/cloned/dreamed up.
avatar
g*u
12 楼
恭喜 恭喜！
请问 可以推荐一下你的律师么？
谢谢！

【在 m*****6 的大作中提到】
: PD：11/2013
: RD：03/29/2018
: ID : 10/31/2018
: Approved : 10/31/2018
: Card received: 11/8/2018
: 休斯顿面试，中午的面试，提前了大概三十分钟到的。赶上万圣节，前台穿的犀利古怪
: 的，看了interview的notice就让旁边去等，大概等了40分钟左右，被叫去到14号窗口
: 边的小门。 一个和蔼黑人大叔出来迎接，打招呼就跟着进去，很多的小办公室，走了
: 有一会才到他的办公室。互相介绍后签律师没来的waiver，之后就问有没在外面照相打
: 指纹。我们没弄，他就现场照相打指纹。然后拿出两大摞材料，交上interview的
avatar
I*e
13 楼
Makes sense.
On the other hand, if ACA as a buyer actually can pick the loans and agree
to the basket, then I can't find any basis for them to cry foul now.

【在 g****h 的大作中提到】
: I am just curious, if goldman sucks did anything like what Magnetar did?
: That is, create the CDO, sell most of it to their customers and buy CDS
: on the whole CDO? If the CDO got belly up, they win big with the CDS. If
: this is the case, it is definitely a fraud.
:
: up.
: It's
avatar
g*h
14 楼
if there had not been so many derivatives that were created from those
loans, we would not have this catostraphy. The derivatives amplified
what would be a loss that are only limited to subprimes. We may not even
see the suffering of prime mortgages.

plain
loans.

【在 I***e 的大作中提到】
: Synthetic = repackaged + sliced and diced. They are still based on the
: underlying cash flows. They aren't dreamed up even when they aren't plain
: vanilla subprimes. The cause of all the financial trouble isn't the
: packaging but is mostly related to the poor qualities of the original loans.
: You can't call pigs real, while pork sausages "dreamed-up"... :)
avatar
L*a
15 楼
They can have their argument against that. Because GS is
a market maker, they should have a pool of CDO inventory
in order to do trade. To protect the value loss of the
CDO inventory, they need to buy CDS to hedge up their
CDO inventory.

【在 g****h 的大作中提到】
: I am just curious, if goldman sucks did anything like what Magnetar did?
: That is, create the CDO, sell most of it to their customers and buy CDS
: on the whole CDO? If the CDO got belly up, they win big with the CDS. If
: this is the case, it is definitely a fraud.
:
: up.
: It's
avatar
d*z
16 楼
this is called "shoot the messenger".
subprice would have existed and exploded as bad as in reality, with or
without the derivatives.
you (wamu, new century, fne/fre, citi...) lend to those who can not afford the house, and how can you avoid the implosion?
derivatives are irrelevant.

【在 g****h 的大作中提到】
: if there had not been so many derivatives that were created from those
: loans, we would not have this catostraphy. The derivatives amplified
: what would be a loss that are only limited to subprimes. We may not even
: see the suffering of prime mortgages.
:
: plain
: loans.
avatar
g*h
17 楼
This CDO market making thing is elusive to me. I know the market making
thing for stock/option. Basically, for stocks, the exchange grants you the
privilege to be the market maker. For CDO, there is no clearing house. Can
anyone who trades CDOs claim himself doing market making?

【在 L****a 的大作中提到】
: They can have their argument against that. Because GS is
: a market maker, they should have a pool of CDO inventory
: in order to do trade. To protect the value loss of the
: CDO inventory, they need to buy CDS to hedge up their
: CDO inventory.
avatar
L*a
18 楼
However, there could be more synthetic derivatives than underlying.
It's just like options, there could be more call options than the float
of stocks, as long as somebody is willing to write a call, and somebody
is willing to buy the call. In that case, the call is naked.
Just like Soros said, there's more AAA CDOs than the AAA mortgage debt.
In that sense, some of the synthetic dervatives are created from thin
air.

loans.

【在 I***e 的大作中提到】
: Synthetic = repackaged + sliced and diced. They are still based on the
: underlying cash flows. They aren't dreamed up even when they aren't plain
: vanilla subprimes. The cause of all the financial trouble isn't the
: packaging but is mostly related to the poor qualities of the original loans.
: You can't call pigs real, while pork sausages "dreamed-up"... :)
avatar
v*e
19 楼
good -- you did your googling and now you know what I'm talking about. I enc
ourage you to find out during early 2007 what was the synthetic-to-underlyin
g ratio.

【在 L****a 的大作中提到】
: However, there could be more synthetic derivatives than underlying.
: It's just like options, there could be more call options than the float
: of stocks, as long as somebody is willing to write a call, and somebody
: is willing to buy the call. In that case, the call is naked.
: Just like Soros said, there's more AAA CDOs than the AAA mortgage debt.
: In that sense, some of the synthetic dervatives are created from thin
: air.
:
: loans.
avatar
L*a
20 楼
Why market making requires clearing house? I think market making is
more important for OTC market, because the products are thinly traded.
Therefore a middleman is needed in order to keep the market liquid.
Those banks are maket makers for these OTC products. That's why we
hear banks always made a lot of profit by trading.
Right, it depends on how to define market maker.

【在 g****h 的大作中提到】
: This CDO market making thing is elusive to me. I know the market making
: thing for stock/option. Basically, for stocks, the exchange grants you the
: privilege to be the market maker. For CDO, there is no clearing house. Can
: anyone who trades CDOs claim himself doing market making?
avatar
L*a
21 楼
What do you mean by "googling". Anybody learned financial engineering should
know what is cash CDO and synthetic CDO and how it works. And I read
an article by Soros in Financial Times.

enc
underlyin

【在 v****e 的大作中提到】
: good -- you did your googling and now you know what I'm talking about. I enc
: ourage you to find out during early 2007 what was the synthetic-to-underlyin
: g ratio.
avatar
o*o
22 楼
just side bet. 不比股票尤其option更罪恶。
一个赌棍玩惯了押大小，去玩不怎么懂的24点，输了。于是就赖casino的游戏不公平，
不透明，不能让他赢。于是还要公审casino和发牌员，甚至casino reform...
avatar
c*t
23 楼
niu.
Knowledge is power, Logic is power.

【在 L****a 的大作中提到】
: However, there could be more synthetic derivatives than underlying.
: It's just like options, there could be more call options than the float
: of stocks, as long as somebody is willing to write a call, and somebody
: is willing to buy the call. In that case, the call is naked.
: Just like Soros said, there's more AAA CDOs than the AAA mortgage debt.
: In that sense, some of the synthetic dervatives are created from thin
: air.
:
: loans.
avatar
v*e
24 楼
haha I was just teasing you. hey, seriously, how much synthetic stuff was cr
eated out of existing pool of outstanding subprime mortgage balances as of e
arly 2007? I really wanna know how much leverage the market had as a whole o
n the cash flows from those loans.

should

【在 L****a 的大作中提到】
: What do you mean by "googling". Anybody learned financial engineering should
: know what is cash CDO and synthetic CDO and how it works. And I read
: an article by Soros in Financial Times.
:
: enc
: underlyin
avatar
o*o
25 楼
the quantity of underlying asset actually doesn't matter. as long as you
allow people bet on rates, indices, you'd allow people bet on whatever prime
/subprime mortgages. 比如说赌球吧，你难道限制总赌资不超过两队身家
总和么？doesn't make sense, right? 参赌双方买卖risk，球队根本就只是道具，
连商品都不是。

cr
e
o

【在 v****e 的大作中提到】
: haha I was just teasing you. hey, seriously, how much synthetic stuff was cr
: eated out of existing pool of outstanding subprime mortgage balances as of e
: arly 2007? I really wanna know how much leverage the market had as a whole o
: n the cash flows from those loans.
:
: should
avatar
v*e
26 楼
that is exactly my point.

prime

【在 o**o 的大作中提到】
: the quantity of underlying asset actually doesn't matter. as long as you
: allow people bet on rates, indices, you'd allow people bet on whatever prime
: /subprime mortgages. 比如说赌球吧，你难道限制总赌资不超过两队身家
: 总和么？doesn't make sense, right? 参赌双方买卖risk，球队根本就只是道具，
: 连商品都不是。
:
: cr
: e
: o
avatar
d*z
27 楼
CDO market is relatively small compared to the whole packaged mortage-backed
security market.
US mortgage as a whole is about 10 trillion. Global CDO market is 1.5-2
trillion at its peak in 2006. So CDO itself wasn't creating a lot of
leverage.

cr
e
o

【在 v****e 的大作中提到】
: haha I was just teasing you. hey, seriously, how much synthetic stuff was cr
: eated out of existing pool of outstanding subprime mortgage balances as of e
: arly 2007? I really wanna know how much leverage the market had as a whole o
: n the cash flows from those loans.
:
: should
avatar
n*n
28 楼
should distinguish insurance and bet.
can you buy 1m insurance for your house whose market value only 100k?

【在 v****e 的大作中提到】
: that is exactly my point.
:
: prime
avatar
n*n
29 楼
how about cds?
i think aig was killed by cds on cdo, not cdo itself.

backed

【在 d*****z 的大作中提到】
: CDO market is relatively small compared to the whole packaged mortage-backed
: security market.
: US mortgage as a whole is about 10 trillion. Global CDO market is 1.5-2
: trillion at its peak in 2006. So CDO itself wasn't creating a lot of
: leverage.
:
: cr
: e
: o
avatar
v*e
30 楼
I certainly can't. but if someone in vegas sets up a gamble that my house wi
ll catch on fire and if he does a good marketing job, the bet pool can very
well exceed my home value.

【在 n******n 的大作中提到】
: should distinguish insurance and bet.
: can you buy 1m insurance for your house whose market value only 100k?
avatar
v*e
31 楼
yeah they insured the CDOs at very low premiums (like 20bp--200bp a year dep
ending on ratings). they realized the problem fairly early--it was like fall
2006 when they stopped doing that. but it was already too late.

【在 n******n 的大作中提到】
: how about cds?
: i think aig was killed by cds on cdo, not cdo itself.
:
: backed
avatar
g*h
32 楼
就用你这个赌球的作类比。参与比赛的球队假设为A队，Ｂ队。而且比赛无平局。
假设一个极端的例子，那些HF,IB用全美国一半的人钱赌Ａ队，剩下的ＨＦ，ＩＢ用美
国另一半人的钱
去赌Ｂ队。很多美国人并不知道自己的钱被HF,IB投进了这个赌局。不仅如此，这两边
还各自用了２０
倍的leverage,也就是跟银行借了１９倍的钱。
不管最后比赛结果是什么，总有一半的美国人要被wipe out,很多银行要关门，你觉得
这个赌局不应该
regulate么？

prime

【在 o**o 的大作中提到】
: the quantity of underlying asset actually doesn't matter. as long as you
: allow people bet on rates, indices, you'd allow people bet on whatever prime
: /subprime mortgages. 比如说赌球吧，你难道限制总赌资不超过两队身家
: 总和么？doesn't make sense, right? 参赌双方买卖risk，球队根本就只是道具，
: 连商品都不是。
:
: cr
: e
: o
avatar
n*n
33 楼
the problem is, w/o regulation and transparency, there could be a lot of
such 1M bets on your house appreciation/depreciation, and the total bet
value could be much bigger, say, 1B，or even 1T.
anything bad on the house, it may trigger the crisis.

wi
very

【在 v****e 的大作中提到】
: I certainly can't. but if someone in vegas sets up a gamble that my house wi
: ll catch on fire and if he does a good marketing job, the bet pool can very
: well exceed my home value.
avatar
o*o
34 楼
不觉得这样的赌局有什么错，反正参赌的双方都是老赌棍。双方都明白20倍leverage赢
了也拿不到那么多钱，他们都会factor in counter party risk.
问题不是赌博本身，问题是regulator因为在赌局里有利益蛋疼得要bail out
输掉的赌棍。这样规矩就坏掉了。不让资本自己运作，资本主义的相对公平
反而没有了。

【在 g****h 的大作中提到】
: 就用你这个赌球的作类比。参与比赛的球队假设为A队，Ｂ队。而且比赛无平局。
: 假设一个极端的例子，那些HF,IB用全美国一半的人钱赌Ａ队，剩下的ＨＦ，ＩＢ用美
: 国另一半人的钱
: 去赌Ｂ队。很多美国人并不知道自己的钱被HF,IB投进了这个赌局。不仅如此，这两边
: 还各自用了２０
: 倍的leverage,也就是跟银行借了１９倍的钱。
: 不管最后比赛结果是什么，总有一半的美国人要被wipe out,很多银行要关门，你觉得
: 这个赌局不应该
: regulate么？
:
avatar
g*h
35 楼
I assume you understand what is systematic risk and have seen what
happened after lehman's collapse.....

【在 o**o 的大作中提到】
: 不觉得这样的赌局有什么错，反正参赌的双方都是老赌棍。双方都明白20倍leverage赢
: 了也拿不到那么多钱，他们都会factor in counter party risk.
: 问题不是赌博本身，问题是regulator因为在赌局里有利益蛋疼得要bail out
: 输掉的赌棍。这样规矩就坏掉了。不让资本自己运作，资本主义的相对公平
: 反而没有了。
avatar
o*o
36 楼
呵呵bear,lehman倒了天并没塌啊，ML没倒BAC倒差点给它拖垮了。
真正的systematic risk是自己不懂放手让赌棍当regulator
1. 视casion关门（其实是换东家）为end of the world
2. 始终有regulate其他大小赌棍的强烈愿望

【在 g****h 的大作中提到】
: I assume you understand what is systematic risk and have seen what
: happened after lehman's collapse.....
avatar
L*a
37 楼
I just listened to the hearing. Yes, I am right. Those 4 people
in the panel are all coming from GS's ABS desks. As they claimed,
they are market makers for CDO and other instruments. Typically,
they have CDO positions and CDS positions (they call it
single-name CDS), so that CDS can hedge the CDO inventory risk,
and vise versa. However, there's always residule risk which makes
the whole inventory net long or net short. However, the inventory risk
could also become profitting opportunity if the

【在 L****a 的大作中提到】
: They can have their argument against that. Because GS is
: a market maker, they should have a pool of CDO inventory
: in order to do trade. To protect the value loss of the
: CDO inventory, they need to buy CDS to hedge up their
: CDO inventory.
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