胡同老蛇： SHORT-TERM: EXPECT PULLBACK SOON （ A TEMPORARY TOP）# Stock
r*m
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大盘有点点overbought了，不过还不够我正式用overbought做title。老读者也许能记
得，我不轻易用overbought做 title的，因为我观察的overbought信号并不是普通的信
号，因此他们的准确率是相当高的(so don’t tell me overbought can be more
overbought, just search my past record to see what happened when I
officially used overbought as the title. The most recent time I used
overbought as the title was in 07/26 Market Recap)。之所以今天提前说可能要
overbought，意思是提醒牛牛，明天如果还涨的话，注意套利，pullback就在眼前了。
当然，pullback if indeed，多半仅仅是个short-term pullback而已。
下面看看几个我所谓不是普通的overbought信号。
Percent of SPX stocks 1 std dev above MA(50)，这个信号源自Bespoke，
highlighted in red都是离short-term top不远了，而今天我们的读数是图中最高的。
T2112，NYSE percent of stocks 2 std dev above MA(40)，图中蓝色水平线是2009年
以前的all time high，我们现在已经非常接近了。
T2122，NYSE 4-week New High/Low Ratio，这是我看overbought的终极武器，现在也
离extreme不远了。
1.0.0 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 60 min)，char pattern看，形成了一个巨大的Bearish
Rising Wedge，这个Rising Wedge的可信度应该比较高，因为上下trend line都是3点
validated过的。此外，很可能正在形成第三个Rounding Top，因此要小心the 3rd
time is the charm，这第3个Rounding Top跟前两次bullish的Rounding Top不一样，
是bearish的。
6.2.2a VIX Trading Signals (BB)，这个follow up一下10/11 After Bell Quick
Summary，算是触发short setup了，具体的统计数据，请参看04/13 Market Recap。
INTERMEDIATE-TERM: BEARISH BIASED
Maintain the intermediate-term bearish view. Below are summaries of all the
arguments I’ve been blah blah recently:
1. As mentioned in 10/08 Market Recap, commercial (smart money) holds
record high short positions against Nasdaq 100.
2. As mentioned in 10/08 Market Recap, AAII bull ratio (4-week average)
is way too bullish.
3. As mentioned in 10/08 Market Recap, institution selling keeps
increasing.
4. As mentioned in 10/08 Market Recap, statistically, a strong off-season
could mean a weaker earning season.
SEASONALITY: OCTOBER EXPIRATION MONAY WAS BULLISH, EXPIRATION DAY WAS
BEARISH
According to Stock Trader’s Almanac:
1. Monday before October expiration, Dow up 24 of 29.
2. October expiration day, Dow down 4 straight and 5 of last 6.
得，我不轻易用overbought做 title的，因为我观察的overbought信号并不是普通的信
号，因此他们的准确率是相当高的(so don’t tell me overbought can be more
overbought, just search my past record to see what happened when I
officially used overbought as the title. The most recent time I used
overbought as the title was in 07/26 Market Recap)。之所以今天提前说可能要
overbought，意思是提醒牛牛，明天如果还涨的话，注意套利，pullback就在眼前了。
当然，pullback if indeed，多半仅仅是个short-term pullback而已。
下面看看几个我所谓不是普通的overbought信号。
Percent of SPX stocks 1 std dev above MA(50)，这个信号源自Bespoke，
highlighted in red都是离short-term top不远了，而今天我们的读数是图中最高的。
T2112，NYSE percent of stocks 2 std dev above MA(40)，图中蓝色水平线是2009年
以前的all time high，我们现在已经非常接近了。
T2122，NYSE 4-week New High/Low Ratio，这是我看overbought的终极武器，现在也
离extreme不远了。
1.0.0 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 60 min)，char pattern看，形成了一个巨大的Bearish
Rising Wedge，这个Rising Wedge的可信度应该比较高，因为上下trend line都是3点
validated过的。此外，很可能正在形成第三个Rounding Top，因此要小心the 3rd
time is the charm，这第3个Rounding Top跟前两次bullish的Rounding Top不一样，
是bearish的。
6.2.2a VIX Trading Signals (BB)，这个follow up一下10/11 After Bell Quick
Summary，算是触发short setup了，具体的统计数据，请参看04/13 Market Recap。
INTERMEDIATE-TERM: BEARISH BIASED
Maintain the intermediate-term bearish view. Below are summaries of all the
arguments I’ve been blah blah recently:
1. As mentioned in 10/08 Market Recap, commercial (smart money) holds
record high short positions against Nasdaq 100.
2. As mentioned in 10/08 Market Recap, AAII bull ratio (4-week average)
is way too bullish.
3. As mentioned in 10/08 Market Recap, institution selling keeps
increasing.
4. As mentioned in 10/08 Market Recap, statistically, a strong off-season
could mean a weaker earning season.
SEASONALITY: OCTOBER EXPIRATION MONAY WAS BULLISH, EXPIRATION DAY WAS
BEARISH
According to Stock Trader’s Almanac:
1. Monday before October expiration, Dow up 24 of 29.
2. October expiration day, Dow down 4 straight and 5 of last 6.
