我对WNR的狂涨很是不解 - 未名空间MITBBS历史存档

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我对WNR的狂涨很是不解

我对WNR的狂涨很是不解# Stock

l*n2010-12-10 08:12

1 楼

Refinery margin improvement;
European/US crude oil spread diminish;
Energy/Commodity Play during QE2;
我怎么觉得这些消息支持不到这个价位呢。特别是当WNR关了一个炼油厂，由于不挣钱。
各位有啥见解，在此求教。

Z*g2010-12-10 08:12

2 楼

why do you need to care the reason behind the rally?

钱。

【在 l***n 的大作中提到】

: Refinery margin improvement;
: European/US crude oil spread diminish;
: Energy/Commodity Play during QE2;
: 我怎么觉得这些消息支持不到这个价位呢。特别是当WNR关了一个炼油厂，由于不挣钱。
: 各位有啥见解，在此求教。

k*n2010-12-10 08:12

3 楼

有什么不好理解的？
只要是大牌，狂跌后就狂买就是了，（除了金融这种投机倒把业）
07年俺还给西部炼油在德州 EL PASO设计了一个炼油厂，名字就叫 western refinery
..

M*82010-12-10 08:12

4 楼

WNR is not bearish, surprisingly.
This means any correction is minor.
I wouldn't short it yet.
It could go higher, and must do so,
in order to create significant downside.

l*n2010-12-10 08:12

5 楼

Thank you for you comments. However, people who bought LEH would disagree
with your reasoning.
I bought WNR as I saw its price waterfall as a result of both business cycle
and over leverage.
I am secular bullish on business cycle so it took care of first factor. I
bought WNR after it's secondary public offering, kinda betting on WNR would
use those cash to deleverage.
Both bets worked so far. Even better, few good news came along for the
refineries. I didn't expect any specific news but they are the natural
results of secular bull.
In addition, QE2 kindly leads a lot of commodity play into energy sector.
All I am saying is I need a good reason to convince myself to invest.
You designed a refinery for WNR? that is really cool. what did you study to
design refinery? I am just curious.

【在 k********n 的大作中提到】

: 有什么不好理解的？
: 只要是大牌，狂跌后就狂买就是了，（除了金融这种投机倒把业）
: 07年俺还给西部炼油在德州 EL PASO设计了一个炼油厂，名字就叫 western refinery
: ..

l*n2010-12-10 08:12

6 楼

thank you for your comments.
I am long in WNR as I mentioned in my previous post. I am just a bit not
comfortable seeing its price go off the roof.
I am torn between selling it now to take profits and keeping it for longer
term play.
however, some buy side companies started to buy more at this point.
Apparently they see something I didn't.

【在 M*****8 的大作中提到】

: WNR is not bearish, surprisingly.
: This means any correction is minor.
: I wouldn't short it yet.
: It could go higher, and must do so,
: in order to create significant downside.