Big Week Ahead for Euro Zone# Stock
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Big Week Ahead for Euro Zone
By EMESE BARTHA
FRANKFURT—The eurozone debt market faces another big test next week as
fiscally-weak governments prepare a deluge of new bond issues even as
worries about default risk increase. Market watchers expect the yields
demanded by investors to rise sharply from previous offers as a premium.
"In our view, next week's market attention will be mainly focused on EMU [
euro-zone] peripherals' supply as the market has already shown renewed
interest for highly-rated paper this week," said Annalisa Piazza, an
economist at Newedge in London.
After Greece's .5 billion sale of 26-week treasury bills, or short-term
debt, Tuesday, Portugal will sell government bonds Wednesday, followed by
Spanish and Italian bond sales Thursday. Greece's 10 billion bailout
package has been cushioning the time frame of the country's monthly treasury
bill sales, stripping out the risk element from the tender.
Investors will closely watch Portugal's tender to see how much further its
yields rise as there is deep concern about the sustainability of the country
's current funding costs.
Ten-year Portuguese yields traded above 7% Friday, hit by supply pressure
and a European Union proposal on how to deal with bank failures that has
revived market fears of debt defaults in the euro zone this year.
The commission issued a consultation paper Thursday on a draft directive
which would give regulators sweeping powers to restructure the debts of
failing banks.
The rise in Portuguese yields doesn't bode well for next week's 50 million
to .25 billion auction of the 3.60% October 2014 and 4.80% June 2020
bonds.
"Regardless of whether the fundamentals justify it or not, much of the bond
market has been considering Portugal the next candidate for EFSF-ization,"
said analysts at Credit Agricole CIB, referring to a potential bailout via
the 40 billion funding vehicle, the European Financial Stability Facility,
set up after the Greek debt crisis for the euro-zone countries in need.
A rare coincidence of Spanish and Italian bond auctions Thursday, meanwhile,
looks to provide a fertile ground for those betting against the euro zone's
survival, Credit Agricole CIB said.
"The euroskeptic crowd should have a field day in the run-up to Thursday,
with both Italy and Spain coming to the market in the 2015-2016 bucket," the
bank's analysts say.
Spain will auction the 3.25% April 2016 bond, while Italy will sell the 3%
November 2015 and 4.50% March 2026 BTPs, with both treasuries announcing the
target volumes Monday.
"Recent bond issuance activities of the peripherals in 2010 triggered major
pre-auction concessions, and it will be interesting to see how they will get
out of the starting blocks in 2011," said David Schnautz, a strategist at
Commerzbank AG in London.
Next week's debt supply of over 0 billion comes after around 9 billion
of issuance from AAA-rated issuers Germany, France and the European Union
this week. But while the market will watch more closely the weaker-rated
countries next week, the top league won't remain idle either.
The Netherlands and Germany will each launch a new series of bonds, with up
to .5 billion to be offered by the Dutch of the 1% January 2014 DSL
Tuesday.
Germany will follow with the billion auction of the February 2016 federal
note, or bobl, Wednesday, with its coupon to be set Tuesday. Germany,
however, will go for a double feature Wednesday, also selling billion of
the 1.75% April 2020-dated inflation-linked bund.
Slovakia will also kick off its 2011 funding, selling a new tranche of the 4
% April 2020 bond Monday.
By EMESE BARTHA
FRANKFURT—The eurozone debt market faces another big test next week as
fiscally-weak governments prepare a deluge of new bond issues even as
worries about default risk increase. Market watchers expect the yields
demanded by investors to rise sharply from previous offers as a premium.
"In our view, next week's market attention will be mainly focused on EMU [
euro-zone] peripherals' supply as the market has already shown renewed
interest for highly-rated paper this week," said Annalisa Piazza, an
economist at Newedge in London.
After Greece's .5 billion sale of 26-week treasury bills, or short-term
debt, Tuesday, Portugal will sell government bonds Wednesday, followed by
Spanish and Italian bond sales Thursday. Greece's 10 billion bailout
package has been cushioning the time frame of the country's monthly treasury
bill sales, stripping out the risk element from the tender.
Investors will closely watch Portugal's tender to see how much further its
yields rise as there is deep concern about the sustainability of the country
's current funding costs.
Ten-year Portuguese yields traded above 7% Friday, hit by supply pressure
and a European Union proposal on how to deal with bank failures that has
revived market fears of debt defaults in the euro zone this year.
The commission issued a consultation paper Thursday on a draft directive
which would give regulators sweeping powers to restructure the debts of
failing banks.
The rise in Portuguese yields doesn't bode well for next week's 50 million
to .25 billion auction of the 3.60% October 2014 and 4.80% June 2020
bonds.
"Regardless of whether the fundamentals justify it or not, much of the bond
market has been considering Portugal the next candidate for EFSF-ization,"
said analysts at Credit Agricole CIB, referring to a potential bailout via
the 40 billion funding vehicle, the European Financial Stability Facility,
set up after the Greek debt crisis for the euro-zone countries in need.
A rare coincidence of Spanish and Italian bond auctions Thursday, meanwhile,
looks to provide a fertile ground for those betting against the euro zone's
survival, Credit Agricole CIB said.
"The euroskeptic crowd should have a field day in the run-up to Thursday,
with both Italy and Spain coming to the market in the 2015-2016 bucket," the
bank's analysts say.
Spain will auction the 3.25% April 2016 bond, while Italy will sell the 3%
November 2015 and 4.50% March 2026 BTPs, with both treasuries announcing the
target volumes Monday.
"Recent bond issuance activities of the peripherals in 2010 triggered major
pre-auction concessions, and it will be interesting to see how they will get
out of the starting blocks in 2011," said David Schnautz, a strategist at
Commerzbank AG in London.
Next week's debt supply of over 0 billion comes after around 9 billion
of issuance from AAA-rated issuers Germany, France and the European Union
this week. But while the market will watch more closely the weaker-rated
countries next week, the top league won't remain idle either.
The Netherlands and Germany will each launch a new series of bonds, with up
to .5 billion to be offered by the Dutch of the 1% January 2014 DSL
Tuesday.
Germany will follow with the billion auction of the February 2016 federal
note, or bobl, Wednesday, with its coupon to be set Tuesday. Germany,
however, will go for a double feature Wednesday, also selling billion of
the 1.75% April 2020-dated inflation-linked bund.
Slovakia will also kick off its 2011 funding, selling a new tranche of the 4
% April 2020 bond Monday.