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A recommend in REIT

A recommend in REIT# Stock

l*n2011-03-22 07:03

1 楼

ticker: IVR
invest in MBS (gov backed and not backed)
17% dividend yield
in the middle of raising capital so the price dropped about 4%. the new
capital raise should be concluded by Friday. So this is quite a good time
for new positions.
Risk:
interest risk, investment management risk. I am betting on managers know
what they are doing, no more MBS meltdown and interest will not go up in the
next 6 month or ay least market doesn't think so.
I am banking a very sizable portion of my account while looking for my next
investment target. Other aspects of my life demand a lot of my energy lately
so don't have much time for stock picking.
Strategy:
short term banking asset. dividends are the primary goal while capital
appreciation second.
Hope someone may benefit from it.

j*r2011-03-22 07:03

2 楼

REIT红利高的多了去了,AGNC,NYL,但是，谁敢买呢？利率一旦升高，这玩意就完蛋了。
而且这些分红都不是月分的，而是按季度分的，非常危险，所以分红会这么高。

the

【在 l***n 的大作中提到】

: ticker: IVR
: invest in MBS (gov backed and not backed)
: 17% dividend yield
: in the middle of raising capital so the price dropped about 4%. the new
: capital raise should be concluded by Friday. So this is quite a good time
: for new positions.
: Risk:
: interest risk, investment management risk. I am betting on managers know
: what they are doing, no more MBS meltdown and interest will not go up in the
: next 6 month or ay least market doesn't think so.

l*n2011-03-22 07:03

3 楼

there are all kind of REIT and you have to look at their portfolio to decide
which one is good for you.
IVR only have MBS and dont hold any properties.
good that you pointed out the risks.

【在 j*********r 的大作中提到】

: REIT红利高的多了去了,AGNC,NYL,但是，谁敢买呢？利率一旦升高，这玩意就完蛋了。
: 而且这些分红都不是月分的，而是按季度分的，非常危险，所以分红会这么高。
:
: the

l*c2011-03-22 07:03

4 楼

that's the risk, it does not hold any property.
The property value will never go to ZERO, that is real estate.
But for a REIT without any property, it may burst any time.
It's too difficult for average investor to understand how REITs make money.
Do you remember ABK,.....etc?

decide

【在 l***n 的大作中提到】

: there are all kind of REIT and you have to look at their portfolio to decide
: which one is good for you.
: IVR only have MBS and dont hold any properties.
: good that you pointed out the risks.

l*n2011-03-22 07:03

5 楼

I am not saying there is no risk involved.
REIT tends to fare better in low interest environment. MBS tends to do well
if there is no mortgage meltdown.
Market is more concerned with international issues: European debts / Japan
tragedies / interest hikes in developing countries, none of which have
direct impact on IVR's business.
Also 60% of the MBS are backed by US gov agent so I don't think a drop-to-
zero catastrophe is likely to happen.

Also the current capital raise brought share price down a lot. Therefore, I
consider it a good opportunity to start a position.
A bunch of assumptions go hand-in-hand with this investment decision and the
horizon is less-than-6-months.
After all, you are right. No equity investment is risk free. I am just
willing to take this risk. Maybe I can see some alike.

【在 l******c 的大作中提到】

: that's the risk, it does not hold any property.
: The property value will never go to ZERO, that is real estate.
: But for a REIT without any property, it may burst any time.
: It's too difficult for average investor to understand how REITs make money.
: Do you remember ABK,.....etc?
:
: decide

j*r2011-03-22 07:03

6 楼

2Fs were backed by US government, too.

well
I

【在 l***n 的大作中提到】

: I am not saying there is no risk involved.
: REIT tends to fare better in low interest environment. MBS tends to do well
: if there is no mortgage meltdown.
: Market is more concerned with international issues: European debts / Japan
: tragedies / interest hikes in developing countries, none of which have
: direct impact on IVR's business.
: Also 60% of the MBS are backed by US gov agent so I don't think a drop-to-
: zero catastrophe is likely to happen.
:
: Also the current capital raise brought share price down a lot. Therefore, I

l*n2011-03-22 07:03

7 楼

All good point for a depressed MBS, which means very cheap. I wouldn't call
that bottom fishing but the valuation is low enough to bring some very good
margin.

【在 j*********r 的大作中提到】

: 2Fs were backed by US government, too.
:
: well
: I

b*r2011-03-22 07:03

8 楼

lucan, what do you think about MSB (Mesabi Trust)?
I don't quite understand its business model. But it looks similiar
to REITs.

call
good

【在 l***n 的大作中提到】

: All good point for a depressed MBS, which means very cheap. I wouldn't call
: that bottom fishing but the valuation is low enough to bring some very good
: margin.

l*c2011-03-22 07:03

9 楼

I have 400 shares NLY
today, agnc, ivr, nly all down

well
I

【在 l***n 的大作中提到】

l*n2011-03-22 07:03

10 楼

hmm, it is similar as they both are collective investment, AKA 'trust'.
Their business are quite different. Based on what I read from MSB's website,
its revenue highly depends on iron ore's price and it is prohibited from
operating any kind of business.
So it is just a lease and royalty collector-- kind of like a landlord. I
don't know much about this kind of trust and it seems that the agreement of
trust have a lot to do with its valuation.
I don't think MSB is much leveraged given its business model. Its margin is
super high but not so impressive in terms of $ value.
On the other hand, IVR is a lot leveraged (use borrowed money to invest)
hence the high dividend yield. high leverage leads to high risk.
MSB may not be a bad choice if you would like to have some commodity
exposure.

【在 b******r 的大作中提到】

: lucan, what do you think about MSB (Mesabi Trust)?
: I don't quite understand its business model. But it looks similiar
: to REITs.
:
: call
: good

l*n2011-03-22 07:03

11 楼

I saw some commonalities here. A lot of these companies are raising capitals.

【在 l******c 的大作中提到】

: I have 400 shares NLY
: today, agnc, ivr, nly all down
:
: well
: I

b*r2011-03-22 07:03

12 楼

Many thanks, :)
Send you some weibe for appreciation.

website,
of
is

【在 l***n 的大作中提到】

: hmm, it is similar as they both are collective investment, AKA 'trust'.
: Their business are quite different. Based on what I read from MSB's website,
: its revenue highly depends on iron ore's price and it is prohibited from
: operating any kind of business.
: So it is just a lease and royalty collector-- kind of like a landlord. I
: don't know much about this kind of trust and it seems that the agreement of
: trust have a lot to do with its valuation.
: I don't think MSB is much leveraged given its business model. Its margin is
: super high but not so impressive in terms of $ value.
: On the other hand, IVR is a lot leveraged (use borrowed money to invest)

n*e2011-03-22 07:03

13 楼

it might be a good time to do the reverse.

the

【在 l***n 的大作中提到】

l*n2011-03-22 07:03

14 楼

Might be.
If unemployment rate drops meaningfully and Fed decides to hike the rate,
or if the inflation hits,
or if the housing market drops further,
or if the default rate in mortgage hike again.
However, what I see is unemployment is still around 9%, Fed's last minute
states to keep rate low for substantial period of time.
CPI came up a bit but more due to food and energy. More people are taking
advantage of this historical low interest period to refinance their loans
and more people think about getting their first house.
My guts feeling is rate will be low for another 3-6 months minimum. However
other risk factors may hit the market in this period of time. The result?
I would see a relatively stable capital growth while enjoy the dividend
income.

【在 n*********e 的大作中提到】

: it might be a good time to do the reverse.
:
: the

j*72011-03-22 07:03

15 楼

不要乱讲啊, 第一, 利率短期内根本不会升, 第二, 就算是升了, 这些也未必就一定会
完蛋. 03-06年人家不都活的好好的嘛.
Disclaimer: 本人拥有ANH等mREIT很长一段时间了.

【在 j*********r 的大作中提到】

n*e2011-03-22 07:03

16 楼

tough job to anticipate here.
house market weak, force more people to rent, good for Reit...

【在 l***n 的大作中提到】

: Might be.
: If unemployment rate drops meaningfully and Fed decides to hike the rate,
: or if the inflation hits,
: or if the housing market drops further,
: or if the default rate in mortgage hike again.
: However, what I see is unemployment is still around 9%, Fed's last minute
: states to keep rate low for substantial period of time.
: CPI came up a bit but more due to food and energy. More people are taking
: advantage of this historical low interest period to refinance their loans
: and more people think about getting their first house.

j*72011-03-22 07:03

17 楼

你都不晓得LZ说的REIT和那种买房收租的那种REIT根本不是一回事儿.

【在 n*********e 的大作中提到】

: tough job to anticipate here.
: house market weak, force more people to rent, good for Reit...

l*n2011-03-22 07:03

18 楼

lol you caught it. Actually REIT that manage properties should fare better
in inflation. but for now, I like highly leveraged one.
FED prints so much money and gives out at so low rate. it is a shame not to
take advantage.
Quote from ' Wall street: money never sleeps' : you should borrow the cheap
money not those bankers!!!

【在 j*****7 的大作中提到】

: 你都不晓得LZ说的REIT和那种买房收租的那种REIT根本不是一回事儿.

j*72011-03-22 07:03

19 楼

没错, 白给的钱没有不要的理由.

better
to
cheap

【在 l***n 的大作中提到】

: lol you caught it. Actually REIT that manage properties should fare better
: in inflation. but for now, I like highly leveraged one.
: FED prints so much money and gives out at so low rate. it is a shame not to
: take advantage.
: Quote from ' Wall street: money never sleeps' : you should borrow the cheap
: money not those bankers!!!

n*e2011-03-22 07:03

20 楼

原来在瞎瓣。我只搞SPG。
IVR最近几天干嘛猛跌啊？发了20M新股？

【在 j*****7 的大作中提到】

: 你都不晓得LZ说的REIT和那种买房收租的那种REIT根本不是一回事儿.

n*e2011-03-22 07:03

21 楼

好日子快到头了
哪能永远靠FED。

better
to
cheap

【在 l***n 的大作中提到】

j*72011-03-22 07:03

22 楼

你搞的是收租婆REIT, 收益也不错啊.
LZ搞的是吃息差的REIT, 叫mREIT, 就是不知道将来两房phase out以后怎么来操作.

【在 n*********e 的大作中提到】

: 原来在瞎瓣。我只搞SPG。
: IVR最近几天干嘛猛跌啊？发了20M新股？

j*72011-03-22 07:03

23 楼

日本零利率很多很多年了. 今早CNBC的工资预计表明通涨还只是一个遥远的梦.

【在 n*********e 的大作中提到】

: 好日子快到头了
: 哪能永远靠FED。
:
: better
: to
: cheap

n*e2011-03-22 07:03

24 楼

日本可是高储蓄率啊，美国没法比。
只要油在100块以上多晃悠一天，通涨的压力就大一天。
工资不变？只能说剥削程度高而已。
凡事都有度，一旦过了，就破了，挡都挡不住。

【在 j*****7 的大作中提到】

: 日本零利率很多很多年了. 今早CNBC的工资预计表明通涨还只是一个遥远的梦.

j*72011-03-22 07:03

25 楼

俺们公司, 只要是不长级, 每年2%, 不想干滚蛋.
还不是得忍着, 整个行业都他娘的不景气.
这利息啊, 一时半会还升不上去的.

【在 n*********e 的大作中提到】

: 日本可是高储蓄率啊，美国没法比。
: 只要油在100块以上多晃悠一天，通涨的压力就大一天。
: 工资不变？只能说剥削程度高而已。
: 凡事都有度，一旦过了，就破了，挡都挡不住。

n*e2011-03-22 07:03

26 楼

BSO 每年2%提薪。
一人干两人的活是家常便饭吧？

【在 j*****7 的大作中提到】

: 俺们公司, 只要是不长级, 每年2%, 不想干滚蛋.
: 还不是得忍着, 整个行业都他娘的不景气.
: 这利息啊, 一时半会还升不上去的.

j*72011-03-22 07:03

27 楼

more like两人干一人的活.

【在 n*********e 的大作中提到】

: BSO 每年2%提薪。
: 一人干两人的活是家常便饭吧？

n*e2011-03-22 07:03

28 楼

AIG？

【在 j*****7 的大作中提到】

: more like两人干一人的活.

t*62011-03-22 07:03

29 楼

准备买AGNC和ARR

l*n2011-03-22 07:03

30 楼

最后提醒一下，REIT在低利率的经济环境中可以比较好的盈利，保障dividend。楼上
的各位已经讨论了不少risk factors，所以我一开始也没建议拿太长时间，最多6个月
而已，我只是觉得目前股票价格偏高，大盘风险较大，所以找一个地方park一下我的
aseets，至于这个parking lot安全不安全，各位自己掂量。

c*82011-03-22 07:03

31 楼

我很久以前买了agnc，当时就是觉得分红挺好，没想这两年涨了很多，还每季度拿1k多
，挺好的，暂时不打算卖，如果真要升息了，立马处理掉！

k*82011-03-22 07:03

32 楼

mark

r*m2011-03-22 07:03

33 楼

what about DX?
is DX a good one?
Thanks!

l*n2011-03-22 07:03

34 楼

不好意思，刚刚看到您的回复。
其实REIT是一个不容易投资的板块，大有your bet is as good as mine的意思，原因
呢主要是，
1.作为个人投资者很难衡量REIT投资经理的水平，机构投资者还有机会和REIT的管理层
面谈。投资经理的经验，已经公司管理REIT的能力是很重要的。90%的taxable income
必须发出去，发少了就会造成tax penalties.
2.适用于个人和机构：REIT的投资组合风险评估很困难，10-K/Q上最多告诉你一个大概
，也就是60%是Gov agency backed residential，20% non-gov back residential, 10
% commercial，光看这些只能知道个大概，具体的风险不容易在这个portfolio
allocation中看出来。
3. leverage: leverage的成本，leverage的程度对盈利和风险都有很大影响，但是至
少我很难找到这样的数据。
但是投资REIT，也有些数据可以作为考量依据：
1, operating expense：这个数据反映了公司的运营效率，好像mutual fund或者ETF的
expense ratio.IVR的G&A expense在1.8%左右，是很低了.不过注意这个和leverage也
有关联，high leverage一般expense就会低。比较难计算。
2, dividend yield。高dividend yield也意味着高风险，如果你选择了投资REIT，同
时又选择了投资individual REIT而不是REIT funds，那么不如选high yield，因为风
险方面你反正也控制不了（这个风险只是REIT specific风险。）
所以就我来看DX不如IVR，都是leverage，都是只投资securities, 但是DX的dividend
低，margin低，当然这些有可能是DX利用low leverage造成的，但是我没有足够的信息
来判断。
此外，买REIT稍微看看analyst的推荐和institutional ownership没有坏处，这些数据
间接地反映了投资经济的水平，风险控制的水平。当然institutional投资者可以买一
些低风险的asset来分担风险，这又是后话了，所以要是长期持有的话，我觉得买REIT
fund还有控制仓位很重要。
不过说了这些偏离了我原文的宗旨，这里并不是建议大家建立长期仓位，反而是有些
speculate的意思。切忌切忌，所有的speculation都有风险，而且都有自己的假设在里
面，假设不成立了，就该赔钱了。搞清楚你为什么投资，冒了什么风险很重要！

【在 r*m 的大作中提到】

: what about DX?
: is DX a good one?
: Thanks!

k*82011-03-22 07:03

35 楼

what a nice money parking lot
looking back你的推荐还是非常好地

l*n2011-03-22 07:03

36 楼

you really dug all the way back, didn't you?

【在 k********8 的大作中提到】

: what a nice money parking lot
: looking back你的推荐还是非常好地

k*82011-03-22 07:03

37 楼

呵呵
我觉得不错的文章我都会mark一下，以便以后翻阅
lucan大牛觉的这一波会到多少？什么时候dividend啊？我都等的急死了

【在 l***n 的大作中提到】

: you really dug all the way back, didn't you?

l*n2011-03-22 07:03

38 楼

should be another two months, it is quite on schedule. I am not good with
guessing tops but I reduced my holdings already.
not because of IVR, more like I found better thing to buy.

【在 k********8 的大作中提到】

: 呵呵
: 我觉得不错的文章我都会mark一下，以便以后翻阅
: lucan大牛觉的这一波会到多少？什么时候dividend啊？我都等的急死了

k*82011-03-22 07:03

39 楼

现在这个点为reduce一下也不错，可以做个短线
反正我这次听你的，6月的那次dividend我是要定了！！
如果有幸可以调整一下到22附近，我就回补并且加仓
嘿嘿

【在 l***n 的大作中提到】

: should be another two months, it is quite on schedule. I am not good with
: guessing tops but I reduced my holdings already.
: not because of IVR, more like I found better thing to buy.

l*n2011-03-22 07:03

40 楼

Easy there. You can certainly see before the ex-div date if u plan to play
it quick. One concern is the recent cap raise. I
am not sure if IVR can deploy those capital just in time to pay another $1
per share.
ER is coming and we will know. Regardless it is not a big deal if you decide
to hold it thru summer.

【在 k********8 的大作中提到】

: 现在这个点为reduce一下也不错，可以做个短线
: 反正我这次听你的，6月的那次dividend我是要定了！！
: 如果有幸可以调整一下到22附近，我就回补并且加仓
: 嘿嘿

t*82011-03-22 07:03

41 楼

How about RIT? I have had it for many years now and it pays dividend monthly
....

l*n2011-03-22 07:03

42 楼

Really depends on what you want.
RIT's 1st goal is to generate income and capital preservation 2nd. Not
exactly for my need: parking my assets.

monthly

【在 t******8 的大作中提到】

: How about RIT? I have had it for many years now and it pays dividend monthly
: ....