The Age Of America Will End In 2016 When China Blows Past Us — IMF# Stock
g*5
1 楼
China's economy will be bigger than the U.S. economy by 2016, says the IMF,
using a special measure of economic size called "purchasing price parity."
Measured in dollars, the U.S. GDP will still be 70% bigger than China's by
then, but the trend is unmistakable: At some point, barring a wreck of China
's economic freight train, China will eclipse the U.S. to become the largest
economy in the world.
What will this mean?
Well, psychologically, it will mean that Americans will have to get used to
the idea that they're not the biggest kid on the block anymore. For most
participants in the global economy, China will have become the most
important trading partner and market, and China's economic policies, not
America's, will dominate the global conversation.
Similarly, and perhaps more momentously, China's military will eventually be
larger than the U.S.'s, which will mean the U.S. will no longer be the most
powerful country in the world. It's easier to have influence over other
countries when you can speak softly and carry a big stick. Once China vaults
past the US economically, it will have the wherewithal to carry an even
bigger stick--unless the US wants to continue to bankrupt itself by
outspending everyone else despite its smaller GDP.
Adding to the change in fortunes is the fact that America's financial
situation is vastly weaker than China's: We have a huge deficit and massive
debts; China, meanwhile, funds our consumption (by lending us money) and
runs a surplus. Over the next couple of decades, therefore, much of the US
resources that might have gone into growth and infrastructure spending, will
be used instead on interest payments, budget cuts, and social programs.
This will likely make the US feel poorer, especially relative to the
explosive growth in China.
Regardless of when the exact date comes, in other words, we're headed for a
new world order--one in which China, not America, will be the center of the
world.
using a special measure of economic size called "purchasing price parity."
Measured in dollars, the U.S. GDP will still be 70% bigger than China's by
then, but the trend is unmistakable: At some point, barring a wreck of China
's economic freight train, China will eclipse the U.S. to become the largest
economy in the world.
What will this mean?
Well, psychologically, it will mean that Americans will have to get used to
the idea that they're not the biggest kid on the block anymore. For most
participants in the global economy, China will have become the most
important trading partner and market, and China's economic policies, not
America's, will dominate the global conversation.
Similarly, and perhaps more momentously, China's military will eventually be
larger than the U.S.'s, which will mean the U.S. will no longer be the most
powerful country in the world. It's easier to have influence over other
countries when you can speak softly and carry a big stick. Once China vaults
past the US economically, it will have the wherewithal to carry an even
bigger stick--unless the US wants to continue to bankrupt itself by
outspending everyone else despite its smaller GDP.
Adding to the change in fortunes is the fact that America's financial
situation is vastly weaker than China's: We have a huge deficit and massive
debts; China, meanwhile, funds our consumption (by lending us money) and
runs a surplus. Over the next couple of decades, therefore, much of the US
resources that might have gone into growth and infrastructure spending, will
be used instead on interest payments, budget cuts, and social programs.
This will likely make the US feel poorer, especially relative to the
explosive growth in China.
Regardless of when the exact date comes, in other words, we're headed for a
new world order--one in which China, not America, will be the center of the
world.
