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my guess on GOOG ER

my guess on GOOG ER# Stock

w*s2011-07-14 07:07

1 楼

will be inline revenue
but miss on earning (increased r&D etc, you know the competition)
stock will dip again after ER kill the front month bull
and then in the dip probably some sudden up somewhere in the later month,
donno which one.
and then will be up to match the value for fb and those trash internet
bubble stocks..
in long term, goog still remain one of the best tech stock with huge
potential
(consider mobile, sns, search.. and even clean energy...)

l*o2011-07-14 07:07

2 楼

re：
will be inline revenue but miss on earning (increased r&D etc, you know the
competition)
stock will dip again after ER kill the front month bull

w*u2011-07-14 07:07

3 楼

GOOG我感觉现在又下滑的趋势，
1）买了很多公司，做了很多产品，但是基本没有一个做精做好的
2）Google Map为啥不砸点钱，买点好地图，
3) Android还没找到挣钱模式，而且可能赔钱（给MSFT专利费），而且就Android本身也是非常混乱的，一个版本接一个版本，虽说可以看到进步，但是整体上缺乏一个清晰的发展思路
4）Facebook， MSFT， AAPL都有和GOOG叫板的意思，比如现在商家都在Facebook上做广告，很多deal信息都是第一时间从facebook上出来的。感觉对GOOG是很大的挑战

l*o2011-07-14 07:07

4 楼

MS的降级已经在很大程度上给GOOG ER消了毒，而且今天到目前的走势也验证了市场的
预期，所以我不觉得如果基于cost的income miss会有什么大效应，除非太离谱。如果
市场真的小题大做，我会考虑buy the dip.

【在 w******s 的大作中提到】

: will be inline revenue
: but miss on earning (increased r&D etc, you know the competition)
: stock will dip again after ER kill the front month bull
: and then in the dip probably some sudden up somewhere in the later month,
: donno which one.
: and then will be up to match the value for fb and those trash internet
: bubble stocks..
: in long term, goog still remain one of the best tech stock with huge
: potential
: (consider mobile, sns, search.. and even clean energy...)

w*22011-07-14 07:07

5 楼

JPM 已经提高了预期，认为beat
citigroup 认为会miss
JP Morgan’s Doug Anmuth, who just started coverage of Google (GOOG) with a
Buy yesterday, this morning opines that the company will beat consensus
estimates tonight when it reports Q2 results and writes that he’s looking
for comments this evening on whether operating expense growth is speeding up
or slowing down, along with other tidbits on Google+, the company’s new
social networking initiative, and on Android and the mobile computing market.
Anmuth projects revenue of $6.62 billion and EPS of $7.95. That compares to
the consensus $6.55 billion and $7.85 per share.
Anmuth is also hoping for “any additional clarity on strategic vision from
new management,” although it’s widely expected that recently installed CEO
Larry Page will not appear on tonight’s conference call following the
report.
Google shares today are down $5.17, or 1%, at $533.06.
Analysts have been going over their models for Google (GOOG), which reports
Q2 results tomorrow, and a couple today warned they think Google may miss
estimates.
Comscore this afternoon released search ranking data for June, though
analysts got their hands on it overnight. The overall result is that Google
’s share of “explicit core” search queries in June among U.S. Internet
users was unchanged from June, with 65.5% share. That compares to Yahoo!’s
(YHOO) 15.9% share, which was also unchanged in June.
Citigroup’s Mark Mahaney, reflecting on the numbers, today writes that June
’s number was down 0.7% from the year-earlier share. He interprets that to
mean that the introduction of Google’s “Instant” search feature in
September led to a bump-up in share, to 66.6%, but that things are reverting
to the mean for the company at this point. Mahaney observes that comscore
results don’t include search on mobile devices, which is “growing rapidly
for Google.”
Meantime, Collins Stewart analyst Mayuresh Masurekar looks at a different
data set today, from search marketing outfit Efficient Frontier. That notes
shows that overall online search advertising spending was down 1% in Q2
versus Q1′s level. Efficient Frontier says the reason is more advertisers
looking for a return on investment, rather than simply pursuing the most
clicks.
Masurekar thinks that means Google could miss estimates for the quarter. He
’s modeling revenue of $6.51 billion in the quarter and EPS of $7.44, below
the consensus $6.56 billion and $7.87.
Still, Masurekar has a Buy rating on shares of Google, and a $680 price
target. He thinks despite a possible miss on numbers, now’s a good time to
pick up the stock, as revenue should rise by 17% the next two years, while
there could be another $5 billion in additional revenue to be derived from
its “Android” software platform for mobile devices.
But Colin Gillis with BGC Partners is not so forgiving. He writes today that
investors should “beware the June quarter,” as the company is placing
investments in new initiatives ? mobile, social, etc. ? ahead of revenue
growth.
Gillis’s estimates $6.47 billion in revenue for Q2 and $7.91 in EPS.
Gillis lays out the lamentable metrics, as he sees them.
While we are estimating 2011 net revenue growth of 24% YoY, we are expecting
research and development expense to grow 35% YoY, sales and marketing
expense to grow 51% YoY, and G&A expense to grow 30% YoY. Net revenue growth
of 25.9% in 2010 YoY compares to R&D expense growth in 2010 of 32% YoY, S&M
growth of 41%, and G&A expense growth of 17.6%.
As for the company’s new social networking iniative, “Google+,” that’s
all fine, he believes, it does not make Google a growth stock. Only
accelerating revenue growth can do that, and “revenue growth is likely to
slow over the next 6 quarters” for Google, he believes.

【在 l***o 的大作中提到】

: MS的降级已经在很大程度上给GOOG ER消了毒，而且今天到目前的走势也验证了市场的
: 预期，所以我不觉得如果基于cost的income miss会有什么大效应，除非太离谱。如果
: 市场真的小题大做，我会考虑buy the dip.

w*22011-07-14 07:07

6 楼

internet 上和google 叫板的应该就fb，苹果还没成型。
不过听说google的google＋被delay approve 了

身也是非常混乱的，一个版本接一个版本，虽说可以看到进步，但是整体上缺乏一个清
晰的发展思路
做广告，很多deal信息都是第一时间从facebook上出来的。感觉对GOOG是很大的挑战

【在 w*****u 的大作中提到】

: GOOG我感觉现在又下滑的趋势，
: 1）买了很多公司，做了很多产品，但是基本没有一个做精做好的
: 2）Google Map为啥不砸点钱，买点好地图，
: 3) Android还没找到挣钱模式，而且可能赔钱（给MSFT专利费），而且就Android本身也是非常混乱的，一个版本接一个版本，虽说可以看到进步，但是整体上缺乏一个清晰的发展思路
: 4）Facebook， MSFT， AAPL都有和GOOG叫板的意思，比如现在商家都在Facebook上做广告，很多deal信息都是第一时间从facebook上出来的。感觉对GOOG是很大的挑战

c*32011-07-14 07:07

7 楼

GOOG在新产品上没啥潜力了。
Android的厂家很快要面临专利诉讼，微软的FAT文件系统和右键菜单专利，没有人绕的
过去。Oracle的JAVA专利，GOOG也没法绕。除非美国政府废除这些专利。
平板电脑据说明年4月Windows 8就来了，比预期提前了。
现在的热点就在智能手机和平板电脑。GOOG虽然有先发优势，但MSFT后发的力量也很强