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most bearish ever
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most bearish ever# Stock
l*e
1
请了个月嫂,宝宝现在才2周大,但现在就只认月嫂了。哭的时候我们怎么抱哄都没用
,月嫂一抱就好。
有时听见月嫂说几句话也就不哭了。这么小的孩子是不是已经开始认人了。我很担心月
嫂走了以后我们
怎么带。大家有过这样的经历吗,怎么把这个习惯调整过来呢
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t*e
2
please PM
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X*y
3
主副同绿,EB1B, NSC
01/05/2017 - filed I-140, PP
01/13/2017 - I-140 approved
03/16/2017 - I-485 RD
07/05/2017 - FP
08/29/2017 - Combo card received
10/25/2017 - Case transferred to another office
10/27/2017 - Case transferred to another USCIS office again
从此以后,USCIS网站上状态不再更新
11/29/2017 - 收到纸质的面试通知
1/3/2018 - Detroit面试
1/8/2018 - 收到纸质的485 approval notice
1/9/2018 - 网站状态更新为Card was mailed to me
1/3/18面试流水账
公司律师执意陪同前往面试。提前半小时到达,过安检,前台check in,然后坐等叫名
字。约15分钟后,一女面试官将我们带入她办公室,旁边还有一个男工作人员全程观摩
面试记笔记,估计是在培训新人。先举手宣誓,然后核实我们的护照,驾照证件。护照
主要核实最后一次入境的时间和地点。先问了我和LD的工作单位,工作内容,之后就按
照485表格所填内容,一项一项的提问。先问我,再问LD,期间在表上写写画画,更新
信息。至于所有"黄赌毒"的Yes/No问题,则是被要求一起回答。随后是过G-325a表格的
内容,也是一项一项提问,先问我,再是LD。需要注意的是所回答的内容必须和表格所
填的一致。我们因为搬过好几此家,在回答G-325a过去5年住址时,时间记的不是很清
楚,就被她揪住反复确认...最后意外的是问了我如何满足outstanding researcher的
标准,律师马上提醒说I-140已经批了,但她还是坚持让我说一下claim了哪几项,估计
也就是核对一下的意思。最后材料只收了更新的体检报告,我公司的EVL和pay stub。
至于婚姻状况,因为我们新添了小宝宝,她只收走了宝宝的出生证明,其他什么都没看。
面试过程总共约40-50分钟,问的非常细,估计是因为要培训新人的关系。结束后又给
了个非常官方的结论,说还需要最终核实我们的材料,60-90天内会收到decision,搞
的我们非常郁闷,心想说好的当场绿呢!?后来怀疑是否因为律师在场,所以她说话很
谨慎。结果8号收到批准的通知,显示就是3号面试当天批的,看来的确是当场绿了。
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l*g
4
just feeling . i can not understand this crazy market. .....
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A*k
5
求月嫂的联系方式!
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b*e
6
难道又出新的了?

【在 t*****e 的大作中提到】
: please PM
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G*C
7
恭喜恭喜!!!!!沾沾lz喜气!!!
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l*g
8
Old And No News Is Good News Apparently?
Tyler Durden's picture
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/26/2011 17:16 -0400
Copper
Futures market
recovery
While S&P futures managed to make higher highs in the last hour, the EUR did
not as only TSYs managed to follow stocks to those extreme levels. It was
an odd day, as we have noted many times today, as the total lack of news
combined with rallies on the back of old news seemed enough to juice stocks
higher. It does make one think a little and we suspect that ES was dragged
there thanks to correlation-dependencies with TSYs being sold and EUR being
repatriated back home. Oil certainly never participated in the excitement (
following its higher than expected inventory build) - which ironically was
what spurred buying in ES early on (and inventory build in durable goods) as
metals trod water relative to USD/FX's volatile moves today. Very high
average trade size in ES, the fact that IG credit notably outperformed HY
and equities, and no primary issuance suggests risk appetite is really not
there - despite equity exuberance. Clinging to earnings hopes when firms are
beating lower guidance and cutting outlooks seems like more of the same
hope that caused pain for many before.
The tight correlation between various risk factors and the S&P futures
market are well-known and often discussed here. These factors include FX
carry, commodities, Treasuries (absolute and curve/butterfly), and swap/
credit markets. The reason we reiterate this is that today was one of those
mildly odd days when ES was playing catch up to a risk-basket that was
driven significantly by three main factors, EURJPY, TSY, and 2s10s30s
butterfly.
It seemed that right as the European Summit started (around 11ET) that we
started to see TSY selling off and EUR strength out of nowhere - while ES
kept leaking lower as a lack of news was implicitly bearish (or at best was
less than markets had anticipated). Of course, it is nigh on impossible to
prove whether equity buying was initiative dreamers or just algos following
correlations but volumes did dry up as we accelerated off those initial lows
(even though volume came back in as we ripped up to VWAP, only to lag again
as we took out the day's highs. The main point we wanted to make here is to
try to explain the buying pressure in stocks with no news and how it is
potentially being driven by something far more worrisome - European bank
asset repatriation.
A look at the chart above should not be too surprising but it is very
notable just how high the correlation was today (higher than normal). The
post 1100ET sell-off in TSYs and commensurate selling of the USD into EUR
was initially stalled as dealers prepped for the auction at 1300ET. EUR sold
back as TSY went sideways (no repat flows?), only to accelerate notably
post the TSY auction with TSYs stalling at that stable pre-auction level
only to sell-off even more into a late day for European banks. The news was
already out by then and we trod water in both EUR and TSYs - even as ES kept
gliding higher - in its attempt to reach that correlation-dependent level
that we pointed to above. The bottom-line from this little forensics effort
is we suspect the equity market strength is far less about buying some
recovery or earnings-driven expectation and far more about flows and asset
sales and their impact, via crazy correlations, on stock index futures.
TSYs in general closed near their high yields of the day with 2s10s30s
jumping very significantly from 83 to 91bps but TSYs were still well off
yesterday's highest yields (as stocks obviously didn't make it back above
those 1250 levels either). Given where 2s through 7s are trading (relative
to yesterday) we would expect 30s to be higher in yield and 10s to be lower
in yield - suggesting 10Y was most relatively sold from early yesterday (
which fits with the spike in 2s10s30s also and we suspiciously reflect the
use of 10Y as a hedging tool for mortgages and our repatriation thesis). IG
and HY credit saw net buying once again but we note that IG significantly
outperformed HY and stocks - certainly not the usual behavior we expect in a
bullish market - and given how cheap HY remains to IG and stocks, it should
have been the major winner. IG was pretty much back to it tights of the
week at the close - well ahead of HY and equities.
Scratching below the surface of the credit markets, we see that IG rallied
around 4bps today to 126bps while intrinsics (the fair-value of the index
based on its individual components) limped around 0.5bps tighter at 126.5bps
. In other words, we saw skew compression as the index pulled back from
being cheap (this looks like more of the same we saw in HY and HYG on Monday
as hedgers capitulated). Both IG and HY saw the front-end under-perform (3Y
index and intrinsics notably underperforming 5Y) with HY 3Y actually 8bps
wider on the day as 5Y compressed 18bps or so. This kind of bear-flattening
is hardly positive and agrees with the evidence that there remains very
little issuance (especially without high concessions) in HY markets
reflective of any real risk appetite. Back of the envelope, IG outperformed
equities by the equivalent of around 2bps and HY underperformed modestly -
not what a well-thought-out risk-reward allocation would be doing if they
were bullish here given extremes of relative pricing.
ES also saw a very big jump in average trade size at the end of the day -
well above recent averages - and we note in the chart below, on a daily
basis we have seen a swing high in the average trade size. These big shifts
tend to occur at trend changes (and even more so at the end of bull runs)
and we wonder if the notably higher level from Monday is a signal that
professionals were indeed selling the news (whatever news there was) and we
are running on the fumes of retail late chasers and correlation machines.
Just one more piece in the puzzle.
On the week, Gold is now outperforming Oil (following today's disappointing
build) and while copper came well off its spike highs this morning, it
remains the best performer from Friday's close. Even as the USD is a
fraction weaker (-0.13%) on the week, it seems commodities have a mind of
their own and it is clear as movements in the chart show how they reconnect
and disconnect on various drivers. The lack of USD movement should also be
noted given Gold's 5% jump this week as between the various major fiat
currencies we circle the drain of mutual devaluation.
All-in-all, its been another odd week with market movements a little tough
to discern as correlations seem much more critical than actual fundamentals.
Risk appetite is simply not there but risk assets keep bubbling up held in
sync by their mutual empirical relationships. The clear reduction in HY and
now IG hedges can certainly be seen as a positive but given the lack of
follow-through in single-names (even financials) and primary issuance, we
think this is more exposure reduction than lifting hedges to leave unhedged
longs. Did professionals sell into this strength up here? Well short-
interest has certainly dropped so that driver has reduced and so we are left
with momentum chasers and just ask NFLX traders how that works out at the
first sign of trouble.
Charts: Bloomberg and Capital Context

【在 l******g 的大作中提到】
: just feeling . i can not understand this crazy market. .....
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N*0
9
小孩可聪明了,月嫂一走就好了。我们当时也有点担心,还想过把月嫂的声音录下来。
后来根本没问题,月嫂刚走就把她忘了。
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G*5
10
恭喜恭喜!我也沾沾喜气吧!
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p*2
11
哈哈,是啊,多好的月嫂,当妈的真忧愁,好不好都愁

【在 A**k 的大作中提到】
: 求月嫂的联系方式!
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u*i
12
恭喜!你们都不是党员吧
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j*n
13
小婴儿也是认人的,谁给他安全感跟谁混,他的安全感也是很简单的,谁喂奶谁就是娘
,不管产奶的人:)
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X*y
14
都不是党员

【在 u***i 的大作中提到】
: 恭喜!你们都不是党员吧
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l*5
15
说说我家妞的表现。
1. 妞醒,阿姨跟妞爹买菜未归,奶奶抱着哄。认真的乖乖的听奶奶唱歌。阿姨一回来
抱她,小人儿小嘴一撇,一脸委屈跟阿姨哭,还是那种带着抽抽的哭腔。
2. 妞醒,阿姨在厨房做菜,妈妈越位给妞喂奶,妞妞疑惑的看看妈妈,没能抵抗住奶
的诱惑,开吃。阿姨忙完了回来,妞妞赶紧转过头去看阿姨,嘴里继续吧叽吧叽。

【在 j*****n 的大作中提到】
: 小婴儿也是认人的,谁给他安全感跟谁混,他的安全感也是很简单的,谁喂奶谁就是娘
: ,不管产奶的人:)

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l*d
16
Cong!!
"更新的体检报告"
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M*n
17
哈哈,这个月嫂看来很不错啊
是不是抱的姿势的问题?可能大人觉得抱得一样,小孩子能感觉出不同? 比如小孩的肚子
要贴着大人的身体抱?
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l*d
18
Cong to "新添了小宝宝"

【在 X******y 的大作中提到】
: 主副同绿,EB1B, NSC
: 01/05/2017 - filed I-140, PP
: 01/13/2017 - I-140 approved
: 03/16/2017 - I-485 RD
: 07/05/2017 - FP
: 08/29/2017 - Combo card received
: 10/25/2017 - Case transferred to another office
: 10/27/2017 - Case transferred to another USCIS office again
: 从此以后,USCIS网站上状态不再更新
: 11/29/2017 - 收到纸质的面试通知

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l*e
19
后来我跟月嫂提出了这个问题,然后她哄宝宝睡觉的歌从《小燕子》改成了《母亲》—
—“这个人就是娘啊
这个人就是妈,这个人给了你生命,给你一个家。。。” ,我败给她的幽默了

【在 l******e 的大作中提到】
: 请了个月嫂,宝宝现在才2周大,但现在就只认月嫂了。哭的时候我们怎么抱哄都没用
: ,月嫂一抱就好。
: 有时听见月嫂说几句话也就不哭了。这么小的孩子是不是已经开始认人了。我很担心月
: 嫂走了以后我们
: 怎么带。大家有过这样的经历吗,怎么把这个习惯调整过来呢

avatar
c*8
20
恭喜恭喜

【在 X******y 的大作中提到】
: 主副同绿,EB1B, NSC
: 01/05/2017 - filed I-140, PP
: 01/13/2017 - I-140 approved
: 03/16/2017 - I-485 RD
: 07/05/2017 - FP
: 08/29/2017 - Combo card received
: 10/25/2017 - Case transferred to another office
: 10/27/2017 - Case transferred to another USCIS office again
: 从此以后,USCIS网站上状态不再更新
: 11/29/2017 - 收到纸质的面试通知

avatar
l*5
21
lol, this nanny is super!

【在 l******e 的大作中提到】
: 后来我跟月嫂提出了这个问题,然后她哄宝宝睡觉的歌从《小燕子》改成了《母亲》—
: —“这个人就是娘啊
: 这个人就是妈,这个人给了你生命,给你一个家。。。” ,我败给她的幽默了

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R*d
22
恭喜,“当场绿了”

【在 X******y 的大作中提到】
: 主副同绿,EB1B, NSC
: 01/05/2017 - filed I-140, PP
: 01/13/2017 - I-140 approved
: 03/16/2017 - I-485 RD
: 07/05/2017 - FP
: 08/29/2017 - Combo card received
: 10/25/2017 - Case transferred to another office
: 10/27/2017 - Case transferred to another USCIS office again
: 从此以后,USCIS网站上状态不再更新
: 11/29/2017 - 收到纸质的面试通知

avatar
S*e
23
恭喜恭喜!双喜临门--宝宝和绿卡
不过,你们的体检表应该还没到期吧,为什么要带更新的呢?
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c*y
24
恭喜!可以透露一下是敏感专业与否吗?面试要提前多久在那等呢?
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X*y
25
本来准备140和485一起file的,所以体检是16年底做的。面试前没有收到过RFE,但考
虑到面试时体检超过一年,就提前准备了新的表格。结果面试时果然要了体检表,当场
拆开后,说没问题。

【在 S*********e 的大作中提到】
: 恭喜恭喜!双喜临门--宝宝和绿卡
: 不过,你们的体检表应该还没到期吧,为什么要带更新的呢?

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X*y
26
非敏感专业,我们面试前半小时到的local office

【在 c*********y 的大作中提到】
: 恭喜!可以透露一下是敏感专业与否吗?面试要提前多久在那等呢?
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X*y
27
非敏感专业,我们提前半小时到local office的

【在 c*********y 的大作中提到】
: 恭喜!可以透露一下是敏感专业与否吗?面试要提前多久在那等呢?
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v*7
28
恭喜,请问485材料需要过去三年的w2, pay stub, tax吗?谢谢
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S*y
29
恭喜恭喜,沾喜气

【在 X******y 的大作中提到】
: 主副同绿,EB1B, NSC
: 01/05/2017 - filed I-140, PP
: 01/13/2017 - I-140 approved
: 03/16/2017 - I-485 RD
: 07/05/2017 - FP
: 08/29/2017 - Combo card received
: 10/25/2017 - Case transferred to another office
: 10/27/2017 - Case transferred to another USCIS office again
: 从此以后,USCIS网站上状态不再更新
: 11/29/2017 - 收到纸质的面试通知

avatar
f*d
30
谢谢分享!

【在 X******y 的大作中提到】
: 主副同绿,EB1B, NSC
: 01/05/2017 - filed I-140, PP
: 01/13/2017 - I-140 approved
: 03/16/2017 - I-485 RD
: 07/05/2017 - FP
: 08/29/2017 - Combo card received
: 10/25/2017 - Case transferred to another office
: 10/27/2017 - Case transferred to another USCIS office again
: 从此以后,USCIS网站上状态不再更新
: 11/29/2017 - 收到纸质的面试通知

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