简单分析这几天最凶险的股票：MF - 未名空间MITBBS历史存档

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简单分析这几天最凶险的股票：MF

简单分析这几天最凶险的股票：MF# Stock

H*i2011-10-27 07:10

1 楼

该股票本来没有风险，因为公司是做结算的，但是金融危机的时候受到牵连，股价从三
十刀跌到十刀左右，最低在11月21日跌到两刀以下（$1.91）。后来投资者意识到该公
司盈利方式并无风险，于是返身杀入，股价从那以来一直在六到十刀之间徘徊。
这时候出现了一个人，此人曾经在华尔街当过黑老大，将高盛从合伙制黑帮转变成为上
市公司；后来被排挤出华尔街，跑到华盛顿做了五年参议员；然后竞选州长，又当了几
年新泽西的州长，然后竞选连任失败，于是跑到MF做CEO.
他一来就要把MF变成另外一个高盛，于是将公司业务从结算扩张到操盘交易和自营交易
和投资银行，此时正好高盛和大摩被金融危机搞得筋疲力尽，为了向联储借钱，不得不
变成bank holding company,服从联储约束，所以忍痛缩小甚至割掉操盘交易和自营交
易。MF异军突起，本来是可以迅速增长，从卖草鞋的老刘变成盘踞一方的皇叔。
不料希腊哈哈一笑说，我向天下借的钱，还不了啦。大家看着办吧。整个欧洲主权债券
应声而落。
MF手里的债券转眼贬值，再加上熊霸股市，牛藏谷底，前两天季度业绩一公布，损失惨
重，股价立刻从3块5跌到1块零7分。
公司显然无法继续正常营运，要么破产，要么卖身。CEO于是召来J.P.Morgan与另外一
个小投行，关起门来谈了很久。
市场认为公司即将出售，股价立刻翻番到两块。
今天盘后新闻出来说该公司
DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
MF Global Holdings Ltd. (MF) drew down its revolving credit lines this week
as the firm reported its biggest quarterly loss and had its credit ratings
cut, Bloomberg News reported Thursday citing three people with knowledge of
the matter.
The company, run by Jon Corzine, exhausted its revolving lines, the people
told Bloomberg.
Jeremy Skule, an MF Global spokesman, declined to comment to Bloomberg.
股价立刻跌到一块一毛三。
明天如何，各位看官自己去看...
如果买家出现，买家将会是谁？
如果没有买家，MF如何支撑？

f*r2011-10-27 07:10

2 楼

谢谢科普

g*c2011-10-27 07:10

3 楼

这种公司，怎么会有买家呢
啥tangible资产都没有呀
别人买丫，还不如新建一个公司呢
明天到0.13？

【在 H******i 的大作中提到】

: 该股票本来没有风险，因为公司是做结算的，但是金融危机的时候受到牵连，股价从三
: 十刀跌到十刀左右，最低在11月21日跌到两刀以下（$1.91）。后来投资者意识到该公
: 司盈利方式并无风险，于是返身杀入，股价从那以来一直在六到十刀之间徘徊。
: 这时候出现了一个人，此人曾经在华尔街当过黑老大，将高盛从合伙制黑帮转变成为上
: 市公司；后来被排挤出华尔街，跑到华盛顿做了五年参议员；然后竞选州长，又当了几
: 年新泽西的州长，然后竞选连任失败，于是跑到MF做CEO.
: 他一来就要把MF变成另外一个高盛，于是将公司业务从结算扩张到操盘交易和自营交易
: 和投资银行，此时正好高盛和大摩被金融危机搞得筋疲力尽，为了向联储借钱，不得不
: 变成bank holding company,服从联储约束，所以忍痛缩小甚至割掉操盘交易和自营交
: 易。MF异军突起，本来是可以迅速增长，从卖草鞋的老刘变成盘踞一方的皇叔。

H*i2011-10-27 07:10

4 楼

你说的自然有道理。明天跌到什么价位都可能。
买他的人要么稀罕他的结算业务来增强自己的prime brokerage，要么稀罕他的客户，
要么稀罕个别人才，比如花旗CEO当年的基金被买的时候，买家就是冲着他的人来的。
在这个版上混的人不知道有没有人听说过股票分析师 Richard X. Bove？他认为高盛如
果买下MF会有好处，请看链接，不喜欢英文的人就算了。
http://pulse.alacra.com/analyst-comments/Richard_X_Bove-A1238

【在 g***c 的大作中提到】

: 这种公司，怎么会有买家呢
: 啥tangible资产都没有呀
: 别人买丫，还不如新建一个公司呢
: 明天到0.13？

g*c2011-10-27 07:10

5 楼

股神你持有多少股丫
我看那个Debra Fine $5.79买入12.2 million MF Global shares
现在亏得她妈姓啥都不知道了

【在 H******i 的大作中提到】

: 你说的自然有道理。明天跌到什么价位都可能。
: 买他的人要么稀罕他的结算业务来增强自己的prime brokerage，要么稀罕他的客户，
: 要么稀罕个别人才，比如花旗CEO当年的基金被买的时候，买家就是冲着他的人来的。
: 在这个版上混的人不知道有没有人听说过股票分析师 Richard X. Bove？他认为高盛如
: 果买下MF会有好处，请看链接，不喜欢英文的人就算了。
: http://pulse.alacra.com/analyst-comments/Richard_X_Bove-A1238

H*i2011-10-27 07:10

6 楼

昨天之前我根本不知道有这个股票，现在我有股票和扑的组合。目前账面上是赚的。明
天看是否逢高卖靠，更加降低持股成本。
此股凶险无比，没有几十年股龄的人最好碰都不要碰，但是可以旁观看戏。
即使是有几十年股龄的人也要小心，此股完全可能破产，如同雷曼兄弟，顷刻间灰飞烟
灭。
那么你说你烧总可以了吧？
千万不要随便烧，因为一旦买家出现，哪怕是科赞自己掏钱management buyout,此股必
然向上跳跃。
所以此股只可看戏，不可失身！切记切记。

【在 g***c 的大作中提到】

: 股神你持有多少股丫
: 我看那个Debra Fine $5.79买入12.2 million MF Global shares
: 现在亏得她妈姓啥都不知道了

s*n2011-10-27 07:10

7 楼

说句不中听的话
五块不到的这种行业的股票
有做的价值么
看一眼都觉得浪费生命

H*i2011-10-27 07:10

8 楼

这世上本来就是有人做上亿的买卖，有人做卖菜的生计。
我看此股一天之间能上下翻腾百分之四五十，价钱也才一两块，所以一时兴起，拿来玩
玩。何况Bove都看，我又怕浪费什么生命呢？
您推荐一个五块以上的股啊。

【在 s******n 的大作中提到】

: 说句不中听的话
: 五块不到的这种行业的股票
: 有做的价值么
: 看一眼都觉得浪费生命

B*r2011-10-27 07:10

9 楼

Will you buy GNW at 80 cents, or KFN at 60 cents, or TCK at $2.6x?

【在 s******n 的大作中提到】

: 说句不中听的话
: 五块不到的这种行业的股票
: 有做的价值么
: 看一眼都觉得浪费生命

H*i2011-10-27 07:10

10 楼

今天最低的时候是开盘的时候，一块左右，最低是九毛九，最高时冲到一块八毛三(一块八毛三已经被撤销，所以最高价是一块四毛六)。百分之四十八的动荡。新手只可远观，不可近亵！珍惜自己的钱财要紧。

M*82011-10-27 07:10

11 楼

http://www.mitbbs.com/article/Stock/33947621_3.html
http://www.mitbbs.com/article_t/Stock/33947461.html
一旦散户买对了价位，墙街就会来个 Shake-Out。

H*i2011-10-27 07:10

12 楼

October 28, 2011
DJN 12:50 PM WSJ: Goldman, State Street, Macquarie Eyeing MF Global Or Its
Parts -Sources
DJN 12:50 PM DJ MARKET TALK: Jon Corzine Still Has Some Fans
DJN 12:45 PM WSJ BLOG/Deal Journal: Potential Suitors Emerge for MF Global
DJN 12:40 PM *WSJ: Any Deal Expected To Happen Quickly -- Sources
DJN 12:39 PM *WSJ: Firms' Analysis Preliminary, May Not Result In Bid -
Sources
DJN 12:39 PM *WSJ: Other Firms May Be Looking At The Co - Sources
DJN 12:39 PM *WSJ: Goldman Sachs, State Street, Macquarie Eyeing MF Global
Or Its Parts - Sources

o*n2011-10-27 07:10

13 楼

比较赞同你的观点，我就是个小青蛙。今天才意识到tmd etrade是15分钟delay而不是
real-time的quote的人，可见我青蛙的程度。。。。。哈哈。
昨天入了一些（存瞎买，没谱那种），今天早上又入了一些，拉了点价位，现在不赔不
赚。一共也没多少钱，不到2k。
我赌一把吧。嘿嘿。

一块八毛三已经被撤销，所以最高价是一块四毛六)。百分之四十八的动荡。新手只可
远观，不可近亵！珍惜自己的钱财要紧。

【在 H******i 的大作中提到】

: 今天最低的时候是开盘的时候，一块左右，最低是九毛九，最高时冲到一块八毛三(一块八毛三已经被撤销，所以最高价是一块四毛六)。百分之四十八的动荡。新手只可远观，不可近亵！珍惜自己的钱财要紧。

w*o2011-10-27 07:10

14 楼

BSO自己有几十年炒股经验。

【在 H******i 的大作中提到】

: 昨天之前我根本不知道有这个股票，现在我有股票和扑的组合。目前账面上是赚的。明
: 天看是否逢高卖靠，更加降低持股成本。
: 此股凶险无比，没有几十年股龄的人最好碰都不要碰，但是可以旁观看戏。
: 即使是有几十年股龄的人也要小心，此股完全可能破产，如同雷曼兄弟，顷刻间灰飞烟
: 灭。
: 那么你说你烧总可以了吧？
: 千万不要随便烧，因为一旦买家出现，哪怕是科赞自己掏钱management buyout,此股必
: 然向上跳跃。
: 所以此股只可看戏，不可失身！切记切记。

H*i2011-10-27 07:10

15 楼

听我劝一句，两千块也是钱啊，可以买一张去欧洲的来回机票加旅馆费了。
这种东西是老江湖在刀头舔血，你何必来趟混水呢？

【在 o*****n 的大作中提到】

: 比较赞同你的观点，我就是个小青蛙。今天才意识到tmd etrade是15分钟delay而不是
: real-time的quote的人，可见我青蛙的程度。。。。。哈哈。
: 昨天入了一些（存瞎买，没谱那种），今天早上又入了一些，拉了点价位，现在不赔不
: 赚。一共也没多少钱，不到2k。
: 我赌一把吧。嘿嘿。
:
: 一块八毛三已经被撤销，所以最高价是一块四毛六)。百分之四十八的动荡。新手只可
: 远观，不可近亵！珍惜自己的钱财要紧。

o*n2011-10-27 07:10

16 楼

我是昨天看到有人推荐3大loser，就买了。。。。。
前一天买了fslr 赚了，嘿嘿。青蛙，见笑了

M*82011-10-27 07:10

17 楼

问题是，散户一旦买多了，MM 就会来个 Shake-Out。
由于价格便宜，机构投资者少，MM 操纵价位太容易了。
每天上下波动有20%以上，来回几次，MM 就赚足了，
MM 根本无需把价位拉高太多，就能把 MF 变成提款机。
这是最大的未定因素，我主张拿手中一半股票来玩波动。

H*i2011-10-27 07:10

18 楼

在这个问题上MM根本不考虑散户，他们只考虑是否有买家出现和这个买家是谁？

【在 M*****8 的大作中提到】

: 问题是，散户一旦买多了，MM 就会来个 Shake-Out。
: 由于价格便宜，机构投资者少，MM 操纵价位太容易了。
: 每天上下波动有20%以上，来回几次，MM 就赚足了，
: MM 根本无需把价位拉高太多，就能把 MF 变成提款机。
: 这是最大的未定因素，我主张拿手中一半股票来玩波动。

H*i2011-10-27 07:10

19 楼

Potential Suitors Gather At MF Global Headquarters For Deal Talks
Oct 29, 2011 17:27:43 (ET)
By Jacob Bunge
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
The board and management of MF Global Holdings Ltd. (MF) continued to labor
on a deal to sell all or part of the broker-dealer Saturday, with bankers
and potential partners conducting due diligence at the firm's midtown
Manhattan offices, according to a person familiar with the matter.
MF Global's board of directors continued to meet as a wet snow fell, with
Chairman and Chief Executive Jon Corzine leading efforts to negotiate an
arrangement for the firm, which could include the sale of assets or the
entire company.
"People are moving as quickly as possible," said the person, though no
immediate deadline looms for striking a deal for MF Global.
The New York-based firm has come under intense pressure in the past week,
reporting its largest-ever quarterly loss and suffering a series of credit
downgrades tied to the firm's exposure to European sovereign debt, increased
inclination to take risk and a challenging environment for trading. Its
shares on Friday closed at $1.20, down 67% in five days and 86% year to date
.
Moves by two credit raters to place MF Global's debt below investment grade
has prompted some of its trading counterparties to dial back their exposure
to the firm, and MF Global has in recent days moved to raise cash, including
fully tapping a $1.3 billion credit facility, according to people close to
the situation. A research note Friday from Keefe Bruyette & Woods noted that
other assets on MF Global's balance sheet are "relatively liquid."
Firms reported to be evaluating a deal for some or all of MF Global's
business include Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS), State Street Corp. (STT) and
Macquarie Group Ltd. (MQG.AU). Also in talks on a potential deal is private
equity firm J.C. Flowers & Co., which already maintains a 6% stake in MF
Global and backed Corzine for taking over the top job at the brokerage in
March 2010, according to people familiar with the matter.
-By Jacob Bunge, Dow Jones Newswires; 312 750 4117; j*********[email protected]
--Aaron Lucchetti contributed to this article.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
October 29, 2011 17:25 ET (21:25 GMT)

g*u2011-10-27 07:10

20 楼

labor

【在 H******i 的大作中提到】

: Potential Suitors Gather At MF Global Headquarters For Deal Talks
: Oct 29, 2011 17:27:43 (ET)
: By Jacob Bunge
: Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
: The board and management of MF Global Holdings Ltd. (MF) continued to labor
: on a deal to sell all or part of the broker-dealer Saturday, with bankers
: and potential partners conducting due diligence at the firm's midtown
: Manhattan offices, according to a person familiar with the matter.
: MF Global's board of directors continued to meet as a wet snow fell, with
: Chairman and Chief Executive Jon Corzine leading efforts to negotiate an

g*u2011-10-27 07:10

21 楼

Going to zero or flying to the Moon?

labor

【在 H******i 的大作中提到】

t*s2011-10-27 07:10

22 楼

MF Global -- which is unlikely to survive through the weekend, at least in
its current form -- is no ordinary firm and the tale of how it became the
latest casualty of mindless risk taking is something that every risk taker
on Wall Street could learn from.
It begins in March of last year when former Goldman Sachs chairman, Jon
Corzine, decided he had enough of New Jersey politics and decided to jump
back into the Wall Street game. Times have certainly changed since Corzine
was one of the street's top executives.
He left (he was actually booted) from Goldman in 1999 after the firm made a
series of bad bets on his watch tied to the money-losing trades of the
faltering hedge fund, Long-Term Capital Management. The LTCM fiasco was big
enough that it affected every major Wall Street firm and required a
government bailout to save the financial system, or so we were told (sound
familiar?). But it also occurred in the middle of the technology bubble that
showered huge profits on the banks and made Corzine a millionaire 500
million times over.
Corzine's reputation should have been in tatters; by the end of his days at
Goldman, Corzine was regarded as a lousy manager, a poor judge of risk and
the reason why Goldman had to delay plans to convert from a partnership to
become a public company. But he used his winnings to finance a career in New
Jersey politics, first being elected as US senator and later as the state's
governor.
Meanwhile, the man who booted Corzine from Goldman, Hank Paulson, went on to
become Treasury secretary during a period of risk taking unprecedented in
modern financial history. And you know how this story ends: The financial
crisis of 2007 and 2008, where massive losses tied to housing debt caused
the demise of Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers and nearly every surviving firm
before Paulson arranged for the mother of all Wall Street bailouts.
With that came a wave of regulation to reduce risk-taking. In many cases,
firms simply decided the downside of losing big bucks and going out of
business wasn't worth the occasional big score, so they began to reduce risk
on their own.
But Corzine was clearly asleep during much of the risk-taking years, not to
mention the fallout that occurred after the financial system imploded (If
you live in New Jersey and witnessed how badly he ran the state, you'll know
when I mean). When he took over at MF Global, he vowed to run the firm as
if the financial crisis didn't happen.
First he threw out the playbook developed by his predecessor Bernie Dan, who
was rebuilding MF Global after a trading scandal by cracking down on risk.
Under Dan, MF Global would return to its roots as a broker, mainly for
commodities, earning fees to execute business on behalf of others.
The firm was achieving some degree of success as well. Its balance sheet was
clean and some on Wall Street said it was poised to begin earning modest
profits.
But put a clean balance sheet in the hands of someone who saw the financial
crisis as nothing more than a passing storm, and you know what happens.
Within minutes of taking the job Corzine began boasting that he was building
a mini-Goldman, as he sought to emulate Goldman's business model of taking
enormous bets in various markets.
There was just one problem with that strategy: it's prone to error. Even the
best traders like those at Goldman screw up, as the events of 2007 and 2008
demonstrate.
Corzine isn't close to being among the street's best traders. so he didn't
waste any time screwing up. Less than a year after taking the job, he and
his traders made a calculated bet that Europe wasn't the basket case that we
now know it truly is. His traders bought more than $6 billion sovereign
debt most of it issued by Italy and Spain, the two countries that are now
replacing Greece in the likely to default department.
With that, Jon Corzine gambled away MF Global, which is now in a mad dash to
sell parts of itself while it moves closer to liquidation, Lehman style.
Hundreds of people will likely lose their jobs in the aftermath, which is
sad since most have nothing to do with the part of the firm that's causing
the problems.
Meanwhile, anyone dumb enough to buy Corzine's plan to remake MF Global into
Goldman Sachs will lose most if not all of their investment, though
analysts tell me those investors want blood and will likely sue Corzine and
MF Global when the dust begins to clear next week.
It seems that offering documents for a bond deal issued this summer by the
firm didn't really mention the size and scope of the MF Global's sovereign
debt holdings, so investors will likely make the case that they were misled
into think Corzine was running a firm with a clean balance sheet, even if it
was neck-deep in the Euro morass.
There is some good news to report: MF Global won't be bailed out by the
federal government, and will likely fail. Unlike Corzine's old firm, MF
Global isn't big enough to be "systemically important" to the nation's
economy and the financial system
And when it does fail, it will finally end the Wall Street career of Jon
Corzine, and finally prove that there are consequences to idiotic risk
taking.

【在 H******i 的大作中提到】

v*k2011-10-27 07:10

23 楼

这个钢镚儿敢捡不？

【在 g*****u 的大作中提到】

: Going to zero or flying to the Moon?
:
: labor

g*u2011-10-27 07:10

24 楼

I'll pass on this one.

【在 v*****k 的大作中提到】

: 这个钢镚儿敢捡不？

t*y2011-10-27 07:10

25 楼

本文作者是不是Corzine职业上的仇家？看第一句就觉得来者不善。
Charlie Gasparino
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charlie_Gasparino
作者不是路边摊的小人物哦：
The Financial Times quotes Goldman Sachs chief spokesman Lucas Van Praag
as saying "Most trading floors have CNBC on with the sound turned down,
but when Charlie comes on, they listen.... [H]e does move stock prices."
[6]

least in
the
taker
Jon
jump
Corzine
made
a

【在 t*****s 的大作中提到】

: MF Global -- which is unlikely to survive through the weekend, at least in
: its current form -- is no ordinary firm and the tale of how it became the
: latest casualty of mindless risk taking is something that every risk taker
: on Wall Street could learn from.
: It begins in March of last year when former Goldman Sachs chairman, Jon
: Corzine, decided he had enough of New Jersey politics and decided to jump
: back into the Wall Street game. Times have certainly changed since Corzine
: was one of the street's top executives.
: He left (he was actually booted) from Goldman in 1999 after the firm made a
: series of bad bets on his watch tied to the money-losing trades of the

H*i2011-10-27 07:10

26 楼

我目前的情况是：即使MF再跌百分之五十我都赚。如果涨了我就更赚。但是如果归零我
就亏了。
可是如果MF归零，必然影响几个金融股，我早在高位烧了几个金融股，此销彼涨，我还
是不大可能亏的。

H*i2011-10-27 07:10

27 楼

噩耗似乎远远地现身了...
Clearinghouses Preparing For Potential Bankruptcy Of MF Global -Sources
Oct 30, 2011 20:55:27 (ET)
By Jacob Bunge
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
Exchange clearinghouses and U.S. regulators were preparing late Sunday for a
potential bankruptcy filing or other restructuring by broker-dealer MF
Global Holdings Ltd. (MF), according to people involved in the process.
The New York-based broker has been working this weekend to secure the sale
of assets or the entire company, but by late Sunday a restructuring was seen
as one option for all or parts of the company.
MF Global is one of the largest customers of a raft of derivatives exchanges
in the U.S. and overseas, and had over the last week remained "in good
standing"--or fit to trade--despite its sliding share price and concerns
over liquidity and customer defections.
Clearinghouse officials Sunday held a series of conference calls with MF
Global and regulators to assess the impact of any bankruptcy filing,
according to people close to the matter.
Exchange clearinghouses guarantee both sides of an exchange-based trade,
storing collateral posted by members that provides a cushion against large
trading losses or potential defaults.
CME Group Inc. (CME) operates the biggest U.S. clearinghouse for futures
trading. Other major clearinghouses are run by IntercontinentalExchange Inc.
(ICE), New York Portfolio Clearing and the Options Clearing Corp., the
latter of which handles all trade in U.S. stock options.
If MF Global slides into bankruptcy, the outstanding trading positions of
its customers would be protected by U.S. laws governing derivatives markets.
However, these positions would need to be transferred to other members of
the clearinghouse, a process that requires the exchange or parent company of
each clearing facility to rally other members and keep regulators apprised.
Should a bankruptcy filing happen, some officials anticipated larger-than-
usual volatility to churn the markets where MF Global is most active, such
as futures linked to the price of commodities, interest rates and stock
indexes.
The company wasn't immediately available for comment on any discussions with
the clearinghouses.
-By Jacob Bunge, Dow Jones Newswires; 312 750 4117; j*********[email protected]
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
October 30, 2011 20:55 ET (00:55 GMT)

o*n2011-10-27 07:10

28 楼

那周一就能破产了？嘿嘿。州长威武啊

H*i2011-10-27 07:10

29 楼

Chapter 11

g*u2011-10-27 07:10

30 楼

haha! I won, I won!
Shorted the shit in my weekly stock pick.

【在 H******i 的大作中提到】

: Chapter 11

g*c2011-10-27 07:10

31 楼

老大，介绍一下你的策略吧
MF到0.6你还赚？
买股票＋卖call？
还是买FAZ hedge？

【在 H******i 的大作中提到】

: 我目前的情况是：即使MF再跌百分之五十我都赚。如果涨了我就更赚。但是如果归零我
: 就亏了。
: 可是如果MF归零，必然影响几个金融股，我早在高位烧了几个金融股，此销彼涨，我还
: 是不大可能亏的。

H*i2011-10-27 07:10

32 楼

sold put, sold call

【在 g***c 的大作中提到】

: 老大，介绍一下你的策略吧
: MF到0.6你还赚？
: 买股票＋卖call？
: 还是买FAZ hedge？