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还是看空黄金

还是看空黄金# Stock

c*02011-11-12 08:11

1 楼

药品名称:
4334DDU Buy.com i5/4gb/500Gb $499.99
自用药? (Yes or No):
yes or no
商店／网址 (如太长请用http://tinyurl.com转换一下):
buy.com, 10% shopper?
药品最终进价/医院最终售价:
优点:
注意事项:
**** I am not buying ********

i*62011-11-12 08:11

2 楼

不过还要继续观望，再下个礼拜就应当明朗了。暂时要hold住。

m*r2011-11-12 08:11

3 楼

500 shou ma?

p*y2011-11-12 08:11

4 楼

reasons?

【在 i***6 的大作中提到】

: 不过还要继续观望，再下个礼拜就应当明朗了。暂时要hold住。

L*12011-11-12 08:11

5 楼

多少收？

B*r2011-11-12 08:11

6 楼

我已经迫不及待地在周五收盘空了黄屎，对冲我的钢铁MT。

【在 i***6 的大作中提到】

: 不过还要继续观望，再下个礼拜就应当明朗了。暂时要hold住。

i*62011-11-12 08:11

7 楼

原因是涨得太慢，太费劲。
但是不敢肯定，所以还是要等。
个人意见。你有什么想法？

【在 p*****y 的大作中提到】

: reasons?

g*n2011-11-12 08:11

8 楼

你胃口好，爱吃这个。

【在 B**********r 的大作中提到】

: 我已经迫不及待地在周五收盘空了黄屎，对冲我的钢铁MT。

B*r2011-11-12 08:11

9 楼

这黄屎不是你的最爱吗？我拉了给你捂被子里慢慢吃吧。

【在 g******n 的大作中提到】

: 你胃口好，爱吃这个。

g*n2011-11-12 08:11

10 楼

老爷干净人，从来不碰屎，倒是你天天含在嘴巴里发贴，牙好胃口好，吃嘛嘛香，吃大
便吐大便也能长肉，属屎克郎的。

【在 B**********r 的大作中提到】

: 这黄屎不是你的最爱吗？我拉了给你捂被子里慢慢吃吧。

N*n2011-11-12 08:11

11 楼

That imbecile was shorting gold 2 years ago when it was 1100/OZ. I told
him to quit f*cking with gold and go long, and yet he refused to listen.

【在 g******n 的大作中提到】

: 老爷干净人，从来不碰屎，倒是你天天含在嘴巴里发贴，牙好胃口好，吃嘛嘛香，吃大
: 便吐大便也能长肉，属屎克郎的。

V*e2011-11-12 08:11

12 楼

现在做空黄金的理由是什么?
QE是FED无为而治而又不能不治的产物。QE本身既没有增加货币supply也不会引起
inflation，只是把已经存在的asset从一处挪到另一处，相当于把savings account 改
成 checking account。由于普通大众对QE的误解，造成所有的资金涌向inflation
hedge的asset，黄金是popular的投资之一。现在由于欧洲的危机，这种误解只会进一
步加深。更有很多人认为QE３会来，再加上很多投资机构鼓动大家购买黄金，金价还会
往上冲。当然最终还会从哪来再会哪去。另外，FED的ZIRP直接造成malinvestment，让
很多投机机构有大量的资金炒作。这就造成经济进入recession，但很多assets却冲新
高的怪象。

【在 i***6 的大作中提到】

: 不过还要继续观望，再下个礼拜就应当明朗了。暂时要hold住。

N*n2011-11-12 08:11

13 楼

That's FED's propaganda. They won't admit they are inflating the money
supply but the stats don't lie. Check the M2 money supply below while
they still publish it. It's been going up by 400B from June to October
when QE2 was supposed to be over.
It's hidden monetization like this preventing TBond going the way of
Greece bond or Italian bond. Bottomline: QE never ends.
http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h6/hist/h6hist1.htm

【在 V********e 的大作中提到】

: 现在做空黄金的理由是什么?
: QE是FED无为而治而又不能不治的产物。QE本身既没有增加货币supply也不会引起
: inflation，只是把已经存在的asset从一处挪到另一处，相当于把savings account 改
: 成 checking account。由于普通大众对QE的误解，造成所有的资金涌向inflation
: hedge的asset，黄金是popular的投资之一。现在由于欧洲的危机，这种误解只会进一
: 步加深。更有很多人认为QE３会来，再加上很多投资机构鼓动大家购买黄金，金价还会
: 往上冲。当然最终还会从哪来再会哪去。另外，FED的ZIRP直接造成malinvestment，让
: 很多投机机构有大量的资金炒作。这就造成经济进入recession，但很多assets却冲新
: 高的怪象。

V*e2011-11-12 08:11

14 楼

IMO，这个你是误解FED了。Money supply总量在QE前后确实没有变，那些钱在QE之前已
经在那了。你看到的是一个很不幸的事实，savings在增加是因为cash hoarding。事实
是现在需要inflation。这听起来很counter intuitive。但是inflation有good
inflation backed by productivity，鼓励cash circulation。当然也有bad
inflation backed by over spending through debt。现在你看到黄金，原油，股市上
涨，很不幸都是malinvestment的结果, 是"pocket" inflation，大趋势是debt-
deflation，最终将美国带往double dip甚至great depression。

【在 N********n 的大作中提到】

:
: That's FED's propaganda. They won't admit they are inflating the money
: supply but the stats don't lie. Check the M2 money supply below while
: they still publish it. It's been going up by 400B from June to October
: when QE2 was supposed to be over.
: It's hidden monetization like this preventing TBond going the way of
: Greece bond or Italian bond. Bottomline: QE never ends.
: http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h6/hist/h6hist1.htm

N*n2011-11-12 08:11

15 楼

To the completely contrary it's cash hoarding that cures bad investment
such as real estate bubbles. When you refuse to spend in the housing
market that has already been over-priced and over-supplied, you force
its price to fall to a level that people can reasonably afford it.
If you can buy a house at 200K dollars instead of 300K you free up 100K
that can be spent on sth else. That way you end up being able to afford
and consume more, and thus wealthier than if owning a 300K-house. Sth
so simple and yet so difficult for fools like Obama / WenJiabao to pull
their head outta their a$$ to understand.

【在 V********e 的大作中提到】

: IMO，这个你是误解FED了。Money supply总量在QE前后确实没有变，那些钱在QE之前已
: 经在那了。你看到的是一个很不幸的事实，savings在增加是因为cash hoarding。事实
: 是现在需要inflation。这听起来很counter intuitive。但是inflation有good
: inflation backed by productivity，鼓励cash circulation。当然也有bad
: inflation backed by over spending through debt。现在你看到黄金，原油，股市上
: 涨，很不幸都是malinvestment的结果, 是"pocket" inflation，大趋势是debt-
: deflation，最终将美国带往double dip甚至great depression。

V*e2011-11-12 08:11

16 楼

你的愿望是好的。Overvalue的asset是应该回落到fair value，这样才有吸引力。很不
幸的是在经济发展停滞的时候，cut spending 会引起full blown debt deflation，最
终drag the entire economy to depression。

【在 N********n 的大作中提到】

:
: To the completely contrary it's cash hoarding that cures bad investment
: such as real estate bubbles. When you refuse to spend in the housing
: market that has already been over-priced and over-supplied, you force
: its price to fall to a level that people can reasonably afford it.
: If you can buy a house at 200K dollars instead of 300K you free up 100K
: that can be spent on sth else. That way you end up being able to afford
: and consume more, and thus wealthier than if owning a 300K-house. Sth
: so simple and yet so difficult for fools like Obama / WenJiabao to pull
: their head outta their a$$ to understand.

N*n2011-11-12 08:11

17 楼

Not really a 愿望 but pure reality. If people mistakenly spend money on
things that generate no return then the money is wasted. A contraction
is inevitable. A mass-scale contraction turns into a depression.
It's just a matter of what form of depression people are willing to
accept. As bad as a debt depression could be it's still better than a
full-blown currency collapse as the result of all this money printing.

【在 V********e 的大作中提到】

: 你的愿望是好的。Overvalue的asset是应该回落到fair value，这样才有吸引力。很不
: 幸的是在经济发展停滞的时候，cut spending 会引起full blown debt deflation，最
: 终drag the entire economy to depression。

V*e2011-11-12 08:11

18 楼

爱尔兰经济危机以后实行了fierce austerity，效果怎么样摆在那里了。大多数人把国
家的经济活动和household的经济活动混淆了。作为household consumer，你要make
ends meet。作为有独立货币发行权的国家，如果private sector 有balance sheet
recession，cut spending 会导致disastrous deflation。美国历史上每次depression
都发生在federal deficit 大幅削减甚至消失之后（参考１８３１，１８３７，１８５
７，１９２９年的depression）。

【在 N********n 的大作中提到】

:
: Not really a 愿望 but pure reality. If people mistakenly spend money on
: things that generate no return then the money is wasted. A contraction
: is inevitable. A mass-scale contraction turns into a depression.
: It's just a matter of what form of depression people are willing to
: accept. As bad as a debt depression could be it's still better than a
: full-blown currency collapse as the result of all this money printing.

N*n2011-11-12 08:11

19 楼

Where does government get their money from to spend? They are competing
with the private sectors for that money. Every dollar government spends
is one dollar that private cannot spend. If private sectors are already
struggling then how do you help them by taking more away from them?

【在 V********e 的大作中提到】

: 爱尔兰经济危机以后实行了fierce austerity，效果怎么样摆在那里了。大多数人把国
: 家的经济活动和household的经济活动混淆了。作为household consumer，你要make
: ends meet。作为有独立货币发行权的国家，如果private sector 有balance sheet
: recession，cut spending 会导致disastrous deflation。美国历史上每次depression
: 都发生在federal deficit 大幅削减甚至消失之后（参考１８３１，１８３７，１８５
: ７，１９２９年的depression）。

k*n2011-11-12 08:11

20 楼

deflation is good, it's a way of cleaning the bubbles

depression
after these "disastrous deflation" you named, US still grew into the
#1 economic power instead of going Zimbabwe.

【在 V********e 的大作中提到】

V*e2011-11-12 08:11

21 楼

Spending也是一个confusing的话题。你的public sector和private sector是竞争关系
的观点是对的。但是例子举反了。public sector的surplus是drive private sector
into debt的元凶。Again，不能把国家和household的债务混为一谈。
Spending有好有坏。Bank bailout是bad spending，Healthcare reform是bad
spending（在经济发展停滞的时候）。但是infrastructure和R＆D spending 是好的，是
productivity backed。Federal deficit在一个有货币发行权的国家从来都不是问题，
bad spending引起federal deficit increase是个大问题。现在在private sector，
earning 和liability有１.４个trillion的gap，这个gap必须要用federal deficit来
补。当然增加的deficit必须用来刺激productivity，而不是鼓励过度消费，过不劳而
获的生活。

【在 N********n 的大作中提到】

:
: Where does government get their money from to spend? They are competing
: with the private sectors for that money. Every dollar government spends
: is one dollar that private cannot spend. If private sectors are already
: struggling then how do you help them by taking more away from them?

N*n2011-11-12 08:11

22 楼

Why do you think government can spend productively? You are assuming
lots things that are not so. Government always ends up being the most
irresponsible spender b/c they are not spending own money.
Private sectors spend their money better b/c they have the incentives
to do so. They earn that money so they know it's not easy. They know
there's risk to lose it if they don't spend it right. That incentive
forces the private sectors to act more rationale than government.
Government OTOH does not have any of those incentives. They are not
spending own money. They just take it easily via tax or borrowing. If
they lose it they just tax more and borrow more to cover their butt.
If you want economy to grow you keep the money in capable people's
hand rather than in government's hand.

【在 V********e 的大作中提到】

: Spending也是一个confusing的话题。你的public sector和private sector是竞争关系
: 的观点是对的。但是例子举反了。public sector的surplus是drive private sector
: into debt的元凶。Again，不能把国家和household的债务混为一谈。
: Spending有好有坏。Bank bailout是bad spending，Healthcare reform是bad
: spending（在经济发展停滞的时候）。但是infrastructure和R＆D spending 是好的，是
: productivity backed。Federal deficit在一个有货币发行权的国家从来都不是问题，
: bad spending引起federal deficit increase是个大问题。现在在private sector，
: earning 和liability有１.４个trillion的gap，这个gap必须要用federal deficit来
: 补。当然增加的deficit必须用来刺激productivity，而不是鼓励过度消费，过不劳而
: 获的生活。

V*e2011-11-12 08:11

23 楼

Private sectors are in credit-crisis so there is no hope in private sector
unless the government starts spending.
In the presence of credit crisis, either you improve productivity (through
spending) to get things back to shape hopefully quicker, or you enforce
austerity (though spending cut) and go through longer recession even
depression.

【在 N********n 的大作中提到】

:
: Why do you think government can spend productively? You are assuming
: lots things that are not so. Government always ends up being the most
: irresponsible spender b/c they are not spending own money.
: Private sectors spend their money better b/c they have the incentives
: to do so. They earn that money so they know it's not easy. They know
: there's risk to lose it if they don't spend it right. That incentive
: forces the private sectors to act more rationale than government.
: Government OTOH does not have any of those incentives. They are not
: spending own money. They just take it easily via tax or borrowing. If

B*r2011-11-12 08:11

24 楼

跟金虫们谈经济发展，可是他们怎么听得懂，听得进哪！
这些金虫每天都在淫淫美国倒闭，世界经济崩溃，大多是偏远农村出来的，没有阳光心
态，愤世又无能，反人类的老将。

【在 V********e 的大作中提到】

: Private sectors are in credit-crisis so there is no hope in private sector
: unless the government starts spending.
: In the presence of credit crisis, either you improve productivity (through
: spending) to get things back to shape hopefully quicker, or you enforce
: austerity (though spending cut) and go through longer recession even
: depression.

N*n2011-11-12 08:11

25 楼

You are still assuming government is able to spend productively, and I
am telling you they don't. Government's track record or running Fannie
and Freddie, Medicare/Medicaid, Social Security, Pension fund and just
about every program into crash or insolvency proves me right.
If you don't invest in a perennial loser and expect ROI from him., you
should not expect the same from the government either.

【在 V********e 的大作中提到】

V*e2011-11-12 08:11

26 楼

Sadly, ill-spending and no-spending will be "all roads lead to Rome". In
this case, literally. That's why I think there is a possibility of wide-
spread commodity deflation after a short-period of craze. No offense
against your investment choice though.

【在 N********n 的大作中提到】

:
: You are still assuming government is able to spend productively, and I
: am telling you they don't. Government's track record or running Fannie
: and Freddie, Medicare/Medicaid, Social Security, Pension fund and just
: about every program into crash or insolvency proves me right.
: If you don't invest in a perennial loser and expect ROI from him., you
: should not expect the same from the government either.

V*e2011-11-12 08:11

27 楼

US has never had 80% unemployment rate as Zimbabwe did. There is no
comparison. US eventually will grow out of trouble. It is the matter of how
long and how much cost it is going to take. One thing is for sure---no one wants to go through depression.

【在 k***n 的大作中提到】

: deflation is good, it's a way of cleaning the bubbles
:
: depression
: after these "disastrous deflation" you named, US still grew into the
: #1 economic power instead of going Zimbabwe.