巴克莱调查：系统交易(Trading Systems)还是直觉交易(Discreti# Stock
c*e
1 楼
一般来说，人们把依靠直觉或个人判断的交易称为直觉交易，而把那些依靠电脑系
统或算法软件的交易称为系统交易。当然这也不是非此即彼的，现在的许多软件可以做
到人机结合，成为mixture。
我们先来看一个投票，一共有182人 投票，认同系统交易或人机结合的达到68.68%。
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/trading-polls/14535-trading-sys
Which is better: Trading Systems or Discretionary Trading?
Systems 59 32.42%
Discretionary 48 26.37%
A mixture 66 36.26%
Don't know 9 4.95%
其中一个投票者列举了直觉交易的缺点：Trading with a system will dramatically
increase your chances to succeed in trading, because it eliminates five of
the top six reasons why unprepared traders fail.Let’s take a look at the
reasons why traders lose money:
缺少交易计划 Lack of a Trading Plan
缺少执行计划的原则性 Lack of Discipline to Follow the Plan
无法控制个人情绪 Failure to Control Emotions
无法接受损失 Failure to Accept and Limit Losses
无法贯彻始终 Lack of Commitment
过渡交易 Over-Trading
并认为系统交易才是解决的办法 A trading system eliminates 5 of the 6 top
reasons why traders fail:
Solution #1: Having a trading plan
Having a trading system means having a pre-defined set of rules you have
developed to guide your trading. Therefore you HAVE a trading plan,
eliminating the No.1 cause for failure.
Solution #2: Following the trading plan
The easiest way to follow a trading plan is to automate it. Almost every
trading system can be automated, and you could let the computer trade for
you. You won’t have to worry about your discipline any longer, as the
computer mechanically trades every setup for you.
Solution #3: Controlling emotions
Trading with a system removes emotions from trading. If you don’t have a
strategy and you try to make decisions when the market is moving, you are
liable to become emotionally attached to positions. You may experience panic
and indecision when the market does not move in your favour, as you do not
have a prepared response. That’s when most traders lose their money. If you
follow a system you will know what to do no matter what the market does.
Solution #4: Controlling your losses
You probably have heard the saying “Let your profits run”. Unfortunately
most traders let their losses run. A trading system will get you out of a
position when the predefined stop is hit. Unless you override the system to
“give the trade a little bit more room” it will stop the loss and
therefore limit your losses.
Solution #5: Commitment
By "lack of commitment" I mean that traders stop trading the system after
the first loss and don’t give their system a chance to make back the money
they lost. Trading is not a one-way street, and losses are part of our
business. If you can’t accept the fact that there will be losses, you
shouldn’t trade. Fortunately a trading system can help you to overcome this
problem; an automated trading system continues trading according to the
rules, and therefore adds much more consistency to your trading.
As you can see, five of the six top reasons why traders lose money in the
markets are simply eliminated when you start trading with a system.
下面来看巴克莱资本(Barclay Hedge)对过去24年系统交易和直觉交易的表现的调查结
果。
http://mechanicalforex.com/2011/05/discretionary-vs-algorithmic
文章太长，感兴趣的可以仔细研究，有意思的几点：
1）在过去24年里，二者的总体回报率类似。
2）在 1987-1995 年间，直觉交易明显优于系统交易。而在最近的几年（2008-2011）
，系统交易逐渐占据上风，这是可能是因为自动交易软件的技术越来越成熟。
3）关于样本：直觉交易的样本有150人，他们65%的交易依靠自己的判断。系统交易的
样本有457人，他们95%的交易依靠系统，因此关于系统交易的结果更具代表性。
我的博客：http://1754044951.qzone.qq.com
统或算法软件的交易称为系统交易。当然这也不是非此即彼的，现在的许多软件可以做
到人机结合，成为mixture。
我们先来看一个投票，一共有182人 投票，认同系统交易或人机结合的达到68.68%。
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/trading-polls/14535-trading-sys
Which is better: Trading Systems or Discretionary Trading?
Systems 59 32.42%
Discretionary 48 26.37%
A mixture 66 36.26%
Don't know 9 4.95%
其中一个投票者列举了直觉交易的缺点：Trading with a system will dramatically
increase your chances to succeed in trading, because it eliminates five of
the top six reasons why unprepared traders fail.Let’s take a look at the
reasons why traders lose money:
缺少交易计划 Lack of a Trading Plan
缺少执行计划的原则性 Lack of Discipline to Follow the Plan
无法控制个人情绪 Failure to Control Emotions
无法接受损失 Failure to Accept and Limit Losses
无法贯彻始终 Lack of Commitment
过渡交易 Over-Trading
并认为系统交易才是解决的办法 A trading system eliminates 5 of the 6 top
reasons why traders fail:
Solution #1: Having a trading plan
Having a trading system means having a pre-defined set of rules you have
developed to guide your trading. Therefore you HAVE a trading plan,
eliminating the No.1 cause for failure.
Solution #2: Following the trading plan
The easiest way to follow a trading plan is to automate it. Almost every
trading system can be automated, and you could let the computer trade for
you. You won’t have to worry about your discipline any longer, as the
computer mechanically trades every setup for you.
Solution #3: Controlling emotions
Trading with a system removes emotions from trading. If you don’t have a
strategy and you try to make decisions when the market is moving, you are
liable to become emotionally attached to positions. You may experience panic
and indecision when the market does not move in your favour, as you do not
have a prepared response. That’s when most traders lose their money. If you
follow a system you will know what to do no matter what the market does.
Solution #4: Controlling your losses
You probably have heard the saying “Let your profits run”. Unfortunately
most traders let their losses run. A trading system will get you out of a
position when the predefined stop is hit. Unless you override the system to
“give the trade a little bit more room” it will stop the loss and
therefore limit your losses.
Solution #5: Commitment
By "lack of commitment" I mean that traders stop trading the system after
the first loss and don’t give their system a chance to make back the money
they lost. Trading is not a one-way street, and losses are part of our
business. If you can’t accept the fact that there will be losses, you
shouldn’t trade. Fortunately a trading system can help you to overcome this
problem; an automated trading system continues trading according to the
rules, and therefore adds much more consistency to your trading.
As you can see, five of the six top reasons why traders lose money in the
markets are simply eliminated when you start trading with a system.
下面来看巴克莱资本(Barclay Hedge)对过去24年系统交易和直觉交易的表现的调查结
果。
http://mechanicalforex.com/2011/05/discretionary-vs-algorithmic
文章太长，感兴趣的可以仔细研究，有意思的几点：
1）在过去24年里，二者的总体回报率类似。
2）在 1987-1995 年间，直觉交易明显优于系统交易。而在最近的几年（2008-2011）
，系统交易逐渐占据上风，这是可能是因为自动交易软件的技术越来越成熟。
3）关于样本：直觉交易的样本有150人，他们65%的交易依靠自己的判断。系统交易的
样本有457人，他们95%的交易依靠系统，因此关于系统交易的结果更具代表性。
我的博客：http://1754044951.qzone.qq.com
