Re: 2012热门/失败产品预测 (转载)# Stock
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发信人: hitmantb (hitmantb), 信区: PDA
标 题: Re: 2012热门/失败产品预测
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Thu Jan 5 09:28:57 2012, 美东)
Windows Phone market can only go up when it is at 1%. Nokia is doing a
100 million campaign and MS has deep pocket as well. Their percentage
can only go up since it is so incredibly low right now.
If anything, Android is the one that has most market share to lose. With
a fragmented ecosystem and Google's lack of polish/experience dealing
with OEMs, Windows Phone will take Android share this year. It is like
Xbox 1 vs Playstation 2. There is no way Xbox 1 can win its
generation, but it will build enough momentum for Xbox 360 (Windows 8
Phone). Microsoft is a sleeping giant and if they ever figure out how
to maximize Windows+Office+Xbox ecosystem on mobile devices with Windows
8, they have the best ecosystem. Big IF of course, but they should have
enough ammo to eat Android share. They are paid on every Android sale
anyway to fuel WP development.
It is stupid to bet against Apple iPad 3, with retina it will kill its
category easily. Apple can also play price war better than anyone if
they really wanted to since they have highest margin and can afford to
play fire vs Amazon with a low end model. Apple doesn't care about
market share, it is all about profit and if selling more of a lower end
unit will more than make up for the loss of profit from cannibalizing
higher end unit sales, they will do it because they have the lowest
price on parts.
And iPhone 5 will solve the only REAL weaknesses (bigger screen + 4G)
that iPhone has against Android. I can see a lot of Android users
switch over. iPhone/iPad may have problems in the future but in 2012
their only problem is putting it on more carriers and manufacturer more
of it.
iTV is a big question mark, I am sure hardware/software will be stellar,
but whether Apple can get enough contents from media companies will be
key and they are all afraid of Apple right now. I see Apple TV as
either the final piece of the puzzle to Apple's full ecosystem making it
untouchable in revenue/profit for a very very long time, or the first
failed product launch that starts its decline. This is the first new
product line they launch without Jobs and I am nervous about it.
发信人: hitmantb (hitmantb), 信区: PDA
标 题: Re: 2012热门/失败产品预测
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Thu Jan 5 09:28:57 2012, 美东)
Windows Phone market can only go up when it is at 1%. Nokia is doing a
100 million campaign and MS has deep pocket as well. Their percentage
can only go up since it is so incredibly low right now.
If anything, Android is the one that has most market share to lose. With
a fragmented ecosystem and Google's lack of polish/experience dealing
with OEMs, Windows Phone will take Android share this year. It is like
Xbox 1 vs Playstation 2. There is no way Xbox 1 can win its
generation, but it will build enough momentum for Xbox 360 (Windows 8
Phone). Microsoft is a sleeping giant and if they ever figure out how
to maximize Windows+Office+Xbox ecosystem on mobile devices with Windows
8, they have the best ecosystem. Big IF of course, but they should have
enough ammo to eat Android share. They are paid on every Android sale
anyway to fuel WP development.
It is stupid to bet against Apple iPad 3, with retina it will kill its
category easily. Apple can also play price war better than anyone if
they really wanted to since they have highest margin and can afford to
play fire vs Amazon with a low end model. Apple doesn't care about
market share, it is all about profit and if selling more of a lower end
unit will more than make up for the loss of profit from cannibalizing
higher end unit sales, they will do it because they have the lowest
price on parts.
And iPhone 5 will solve the only REAL weaknesses (bigger screen + 4G)
that iPhone has against Android. I can see a lot of Android users
switch over. iPhone/iPad may have problems in the future but in 2012
their only problem is putting it on more carriers and manufacturer more
of it.
iTV is a big question mark, I am sure hardware/software will be stellar,
but whether Apple can get enough contents from media companies will be
key and they are all afraid of Apple right now. I see Apple TV as
either the final piece of the puzzle to Apple's full ecosystem making it
untouchable in revenue/profit for a very very long time, or the first
failed product launch that starts its decline. This is the first new
product line they launch without Jobs and I am nervous about it.
