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大跌的消息已经出来了(还是希腊)二月中
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大跌的消息已经出来了(还是希腊)二月中# Stock
o*w
1
(Reuters) - Greece's government struggled on Friday to agree tough labor
reforms that would appease both wary political leaders and irate lenders
faced with a rising bill to save the country from bankruptcy.
Athens is under pressure to wrap up talks on a bond swap and a 130 billion
euro bailout to avert a chaotic default, but hopes of an imminent deal faded
after euro zone finance ministers put off a meeting expected on Monday to
finalize the rescue.
The ministers instead may meet later next week, Eurogroup chief Jean-Claude
Juncker said.
Athens has repeatedly said the talks are in their final stage but has failed
to secure either deal after weeks of wrangling, largely over concern that
the rescue plan will not do enough to bring Greece's debt burden under
control.
Euro zone governments may now have to cough up an extra 15 billion euros in
addition to the 130 billion euros agreed in October because of funds needed
to recapitalize tottering Greek banks, European Union sources said.
Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos met officials from the so-called troika
of foreign lenders on Friday in a bid to agree details on wage cuts and
bank recapitalization before they are presented to political leaders for
approval on Saturday.
"We are having difficult negotiations and have difficult decisions to take,"
said Greek government spokesman Pantelis Kapsis. "We have to deal with
political issues which are open and difficult."
Without a deal on the bond swap and bailout, Athens risks default when 14.5
billion euros of bonds fall due in March. Investors fear this could in turn
sow panic across financial markets and push the global economy back into
recession.
A bond swap, under which banks and insurers take real losses of about 70
percent on Greek debt they hold, is largely in place but yet to be sealed
over concerns that public creditors like the European Central Bank will have
also have to chip in.
Representatives for the banks and insurers will be back in Athens to
continue talks over the weekend, said the Institute of International Finance
, which negotiates on their behalf.
Greece's foreign lenders, on the other hand, have yet to sign off on the
entire bailout on doubts over Athens' commitment to reforming the Greek
economy to make it more competitive.
ALTERNATIVE SOLUTIONS
Once Athens nails down details on reforms with lenders, Papademos faces the
tricky task of convincing the three party chiefs in his coalition to back
the unpopular reforms just a few months before the country heads to the
polls.
A senior Greek government official dismissed reports that Papademos is
considering resigning if he fails to convince them, saying: "There is no
such thing. No such issue has come up."
Papademos is expected to convene a meeting of the socialist, conservative
and far-right leaders in his coalition on Saturday to persuade them that
Athens will have no choice but to default if they fail to approve the
reforms.
Kapsis, the government spokesman, suggested Papademos would try to offer
alternative proposals to the party chiefs in a bid to win their backing,
though he warned each one would entail pain for Greeks reeling from wave
after wave of austerity.
"It's not all black and white. There are packages of solutions with
alternatives," said Kapsis.
"No matter what decision we take it will have a cost."
To reduce labor costs, the troika of European Central Bank, European Union
and International Monetary Fund lenders want Greece to make holiday bonuses
in the private sector optional and cut the minimum monthly wage, set now at
about 750 euros.
Stepping up the pressure, the Dutch finance minister said Athens would not
get money until it offered proof of its commitment to reform.
"The IMF rightly demands a reduction in the minimum wage and a substantial
reduction in the number of civil servants," Jan-Kees de Jager said on his
blog after meeting counterparts from other AAA-rated euro zone nations
Germany, Finland and Luxembourg.
"We will not agree to a second bailout until Greece has made serious efforts
to do this."
In a sign that implementing the reforms will be difficult even with
political approval, Greek employers and unions said further salary cuts were
non-negotiable and instead proposed reducing taxes and social contributions.
The main private sector union GSEE also rejected employers' proposal for a
wage freeze in 2012 and 2013.
"Competitiveness on a national level is affected more by factors like
bureaucracy - which is fed by complex regulation, state intervention, the
tax system, corruption and anti-business mentality rather than wage costs,"
the employers and unions said in the joint le
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k*d
2
太长..没读..
这些消息难道不是早就知道的吗?
avatar
k*f
3
So we're expecting a bloody Valentine's day.
avatar
b*3
4
二娃你露点了

【在 k********f 的大作中提到】
: So we're expecting a bloody Valentine's day.
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o*y
5
要是大家通过读新闻就可以预测哪天跌的话,那那天十有八九肯定不会跌,MM又那么好
欺负吗?
为啥不尊重趋势?
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k*8
6
太好了!
牛牛的燃料弹药又来了!!!
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B*o
7
it's been planned...
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b*3
8
大牛难道不认为趋势是一句空话么?
你说说什么是趋势,如何判定趋势的开始,发展和灭完?

【在 o**y 的大作中提到】
: 要是大家通过读新闻就可以预测哪天跌的话,那那天十有八九肯定不会跌,MM又那么好
: 欺负吗?
: 为啥不尊重趋势?

avatar
o*y
9
一个参考指标是利率,当利率维持这么低这么长时间,经过了09到11的疯涨,11期间的
盘整,现在继续维持零利率,盘子又开始涨,难道不是要continue09到11的那个被中断
的趋势?
你自己想,全球宽松货币,钱这么多,不去股市要去哪里?

【在 b*******3 的大作中提到】
: 大牛难道不认为趋势是一句空话么?
: 你说说什么是趋势,如何判定趋势的开始,发展和灭完?

avatar
b*3
10
那你说说你是不是09年all in,然后hold到现在?
那你认为现在的趋势到什么时候结束?
你是不是预知了11年的盘整?难道11年不是趋势中的一段?

【在 o**y 的大作中提到】
: 一个参考指标是利率,当利率维持这么低这么长时间,经过了09到11的疯涨,11期间的
: 盘整,现在继续维持零利率,盘子又开始涨,难道不是要continue09到11的那个被中断
: 的趋势?
: 你自己想,全球宽松货币,钱这么多,不去股市要去哪里?

avatar
o*y
11
我09年4月到7月间开始逐步all in,11年3月全部清仓的。11年8月大跌之后的一个月我
就说过美元的大底到了,接下来股市会跌,原物料会跌,所以一直没买股票,顶多是买
FAZ之类。现在的趋势会在FED加息后停滞开始盘整,那得是至少一年以后的事情了。个
人猜测。

【在 b*******3 的大作中提到】
: 那你说说你是不是09年all in,然后hold到现在?
: 那你认为现在的趋势到什么时候结束?
: 你是不是预知了11年的盘整?难道11年不是趋势中的一段?

avatar
b*3
12
嗯,眼光很长,佩服佩服。
敢问大牛炒股多久了?

【在 o**y 的大作中提到】
: 我09年4月到7月间开始逐步all in,11年3月全部清仓的。11年8月大跌之后的一个月我
: 就说过美元的大底到了,接下来股市会跌,原物料会跌,所以一直没买股票,顶多是买
: FAZ之类。现在的趋势会在FED加息后停滞开始盘整,那得是至少一年以后的事情了。个
: 人猜测。

avatar
o*y
13
没多久,08年开始炒外汇,09年开始炒股票的。

【在 b*******3 的大作中提到】
: 嗯,眼光很长,佩服佩服。
: 敢问大牛炒股多久了?

avatar
b*3
14
大牛太牛了。这个答复很严谨。

【在 o**y 的大作中提到】
: 没多久,08年开始炒外汇,09年开始炒股票的。
avatar
o*y
15
呵呵,我现在关心的不是要不要买股票的问题,而是用什么方法能够买到最能涨,最优
质的股票的问题,下次出现大盘整我应该不会像11年那样全部清仓了,去年还是太嫩了。

【在 b*******3 的大作中提到】
: 大牛太牛了。这个答复很严谨。
avatar
b*3
16
unlinc大牛的帖子多关注一下

了。

【在 o**y 的大作中提到】
: 呵呵,我现在关心的不是要不要买股票的问题,而是用什么方法能够买到最能涨,最优
: 质的股票的问题,下次出现大盘整我应该不会像11年那样全部清仓了,去年还是太嫩了。

avatar
o*y
17
U大牛的pick一般不适合我玩,你们短线灵活的应该跟。我这种手脚慢,心态差的还是
价值投资,长线持有优质公司的比较适合。很多股票09年到现在涨了5倍10倍的,11年
的金融危机对他们没啥影响,我要找的就是类似这种的。

【在 b*******3 的大作中提到】
: unlinc大牛的帖子多关注一下
:
: 了。

avatar
k*8
18
你的农夫法就不错
个人觉得现在布局就要想远一点,首先是mean reversion,然后是通胀,再接下来是强势美元受益
growth也是永恒的热点

【在 o**y 的大作中提到】
: U大牛的pick一般不适合我玩,你们短线灵活的应该跟。我这种手脚慢,心态差的还是
: 价值投资,长线持有优质公司的比较适合。很多股票09年到现在涨了5倍10倍的,11年
: 的金融危机对他们没啥影响,我要找的就是类似这种的。

avatar
b*3
19
这个是正途,可以上大资金
U大牛的炒法,在 牛市比较实用

【在 o**y 的大作中提到】
: U大牛的pick一般不适合我玩,你们短线灵活的应该跟。我这种手脚慢,心态差的还是
: 价值投资,长线持有优质公司的比较适合。很多股票09年到现在涨了5倍10倍的,11年
: 的金融危机对他们没啥影响,我要找的就是类似这种的。

avatar
o*y
20
目前来看还不错,20几只股票,不管加仓的没加仓的,全部平均收益基本上等于道指,
下个月开始就要淘汰制了,输给道指的扔掉,这样就可以逐渐beat道指的performance
了。
完全同意你说的顺序,只要我们节奏把握对了,就能鱼翅捞饭。
Growth方面,我最关注的是
1.奢侈品市场
2.优质的consumer goods的跨国公司
3.地产
4.科技股(很难挑),可能就炒大盘吧。
5.营养品

强势美元受益

【在 k********8 的大作中提到】
: 你的农夫法就不错
: 个人觉得现在布局就要想远一点,首先是mean reversion,然后是通胀,再接下来是强势美元受益
: growth也是永恒的热点

avatar
w*2
21
very nice to keep winner running

【在 o**y 的大作中提到】
: 目前来看还不错,20几只股票,不管加仓的没加仓的,全部平均收益基本上等于道指,
: 下个月开始就要淘汰制了,输给道指的扔掉,这样就可以逐渐beat道指的performance
: 了。
: 完全同意你说的顺序,只要我们节奏把握对了,就能鱼翅捞饭。
: Growth方面,我最关注的是
: 1.奢侈品市场
: 2.优质的consumer goods的跨国公司
: 3.地产
: 4.科技股(很难挑),可能就炒大盘吧。
: 5.营养品

avatar
X*s
22
re

【在 o**y 的大作中提到】
: 要是大家通过读新闻就可以预测哪天跌的话,那那天十有八九肯定不会跌,MM又那么好
: 欺负吗?
: 为啥不尊重趋势?

avatar
i*e
23
谢大金嫂指点!

performance

【在 o**y 的大作中提到】
: 目前来看还不错,20几只股票,不管加仓的没加仓的,全部平均收益基本上等于道指,
: 下个月开始就要淘汰制了,输给道指的扔掉,这样就可以逐渐beat道指的performance
: 了。
: 完全同意你说的顺序,只要我们节奏把握对了,就能鱼翅捞饭。
: Growth方面,我最关注的是
: 1.奢侈品市场
: 2.优质的consumer goods的跨国公司
: 3.地产
: 4.科技股(很难挑),可能就炒大盘吧。
: 5.营养品

avatar
o*w
24
要折腾了!

faded
Claude
failed

【在 o*******w 的大作中提到】
: (Reuters) - Greece's government struggled on Friday to agree tough labor
: reforms that would appease both wary political leaders and irate lenders
: faced with a rising bill to save the country from bankruptcy.
: Athens is under pressure to wrap up talks on a bond swap and a 130 billion
: euro bailout to avert a chaotic default, but hopes of an imminent deal faded
: after euro zone finance ministers put off a meeting expected on Monday to
: finalize the rescue.
: The ministers instead may meet later next week, Eurogroup chief Jean-Claude
: Juncker said.
: Athens has repeatedly said the talks are in their final stage but has failed

avatar
i*e
25
On Sunday, the three parties have no agreement on ALL terms!!!
Please focus on the word "ALL" "ALL" "ALL" "ALL" "ALL" "ALL" "ALL" "ALL" "
ALL" "ALL" "ALL" "ALL"
avatar
l*i
26
能推荐点长线pick吗?多谢。

performance

【在 o**y 的大作中提到】
: 目前来看还不错,20几只股票,不管加仓的没加仓的,全部平均收益基本上等于道指,
: 下个月开始就要淘汰制了,输给道指的扔掉,这样就可以逐渐beat道指的performance
: 了。
: 完全同意你说的顺序,只要我们节奏把握对了,就能鱼翅捞饭。
: Growth方面,我最关注的是
: 1.奢侈品市场
: 2.优质的consumer goods的跨国公司
: 3.地产
: 4.科技股(很难挑),可能就炒大盘吧。
: 5.营养品

avatar
a*h
27
感觉是这段时间最靠谱的贴,顺便请教
地产再次出现了生机,已经突破了前两年的水平,再加上利好的就业数据,有希望在较
高水平企稳。建议关注XHB等代表行业状况的ETF或者TOL
科技股整体创出新高,似乎更多依靠欧洲支持。如果欧洲政府还是象去年下半年那样反
复,在寻求上就可以把科技类采购需求压缩在这个高点,很难有更高的作为。
奢侈品消费谨慎看好。很多亚洲例如香港的店家上季度表现差强人意,中国的奢侈品消
费能维持多久是个问题。
希望LZ展开说说这些个股,大家也可以参考参考

performance

【在 o**y 的大作中提到】
: 目前来看还不错,20几只股票,不管加仓的没加仓的,全部平均收益基本上等于道指,
: 下个月开始就要淘汰制了,输给道指的扔掉,这样就可以逐渐beat道指的performance
: 了。
: 完全同意你说的顺序,只要我们节奏把握对了,就能鱼翅捞饭。
: Growth方面,我最关注的是
: 1.奢侈品市场
: 2.优质的consumer goods的跨国公司
: 3.地产
: 4.科技股(很难挑),可能就炒大盘吧。
: 5.营养品

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