For First Solar, It May Soon Be Game Over (ZZ)# Stock
m*i
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NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Imagine a company that has predicated its future on
building out large-scale projects in desert conditions. Now imagine the
technology the company uses doesn't have a long-term track record of
performing under intense heat.
You don't have to imagine the company. It's First Solar(FSLR), and based on
the revelation in its Tuesday conference call with analysts that high-
temperature degradation issues have surfaced with its panels, it's the most
alarming prospect for a company in the midst of a critical strategic
transition.
To some First Solar watchers, this looks like a slam dunk reason to sell.
Axiom Capital analyst Gordon Johnson more or less made this case on CNBC on
Tuesday afternoon, saying that if First Solar technology doesn't work, the
stock is essentially worthless.
Stifel analyst Jeff Osborne put it more mildly in writing, "We see the
disclosed heat-driven degradation issue as lowering the economics of
expanding into new markets and potentially posing a product acceptance risk."
One thing is certain: First Solar didn't need the added headache of two
solar panel warranty issues: a manufacturing process defect that impacted
panels made between 2008 and 2009 that has lingered for the company, and the
broader issue of solar panel performance in the hot weather areas that are
increasingly important to First Solar's future.
On the 2008-2009 issue, one could hear the exasperation in the voice of
Citigroup analyst Tim Arcuri during the conference call when he questioned
First Solar management about the warranty charges taken in the current
quarter.
The contradictions in the First Solar warranty story warrant notice and are
worth laying out:
•First Solar is positioning itself as a future winner in building
large-scale solar projects in sustainable solar economies. Many of these
solar economies will be in high-temperature regions across the globe, where
high-temperature performance will be a critical issue
•First Solar's technology has no long-term track record of performing
in these high temperature regions.
•First Solar reassured investors that the manufacturing defect that
impacted panels made between 2008 and 2009 really is being put to bed.
However, analysts ask if First Solar was wrong in calling an end to this
issue last quarter, why couldn't it be wrong again?
•The company also responded to a question about the high-temperature
degradation issue by saying it doesn't have enough information yet to
provide detailed answers.
In other words, while First Solar is confident that the 2008-2009 warranty
issue is close to being put to bed because only 4% of warranty claims are
left to get through, it couldn't provide assurance that the high-temperature
degradation issue wouldn't lead to future claims. Until First Solar
provides a detailed explanation of what went wrong and why it will never
happen again, this issue is alarming.
building out large-scale projects in desert conditions. Now imagine the
technology the company uses doesn't have a long-term track record of
performing under intense heat.
You don't have to imagine the company. It's First Solar(FSLR), and based on
the revelation in its Tuesday conference call with analysts that high-
temperature degradation issues have surfaced with its panels, it's the most
alarming prospect for a company in the midst of a critical strategic
transition.
To some First Solar watchers, this looks like a slam dunk reason to sell.
Axiom Capital analyst Gordon Johnson more or less made this case on CNBC on
Tuesday afternoon, saying that if First Solar technology doesn't work, the
stock is essentially worthless.
Stifel analyst Jeff Osborne put it more mildly in writing, "We see the
disclosed heat-driven degradation issue as lowering the economics of
expanding into new markets and potentially posing a product acceptance risk."
One thing is certain: First Solar didn't need the added headache of two
solar panel warranty issues: a manufacturing process defect that impacted
panels made between 2008 and 2009 that has lingered for the company, and the
broader issue of solar panel performance in the hot weather areas that are
increasingly important to First Solar's future.
On the 2008-2009 issue, one could hear the exasperation in the voice of
Citigroup analyst Tim Arcuri during the conference call when he questioned
First Solar management about the warranty charges taken in the current
quarter.
The contradictions in the First Solar warranty story warrant notice and are
worth laying out:
•First Solar is positioning itself as a future winner in building
large-scale solar projects in sustainable solar economies. Many of these
solar economies will be in high-temperature regions across the globe, where
high-temperature performance will be a critical issue
•First Solar's technology has no long-term track record of performing
in these high temperature regions.
•First Solar reassured investors that the manufacturing defect that
impacted panels made between 2008 and 2009 really is being put to bed.
However, analysts ask if First Solar was wrong in calling an end to this
issue last quarter, why couldn't it be wrong again?
•The company also responded to a question about the high-temperature
degradation issue by saying it doesn't have enough information yet to
provide detailed answers.
In other words, while First Solar is confident that the 2008-2009 warranty
issue is close to being put to bed because only 4% of warranty claims are
left to get through, it couldn't provide assurance that the high-temperature
degradation issue wouldn't lead to future claims. Until First Solar
provides a detailed explanation of what went wrong and why it will never
happen again, this issue is alarming.
