做空的先看看John Hussman的Weekly Market Comment# Stock
V*e
1 楼
Highlights:
"The bottom line is that near-term market direction is largely a throw of
the dice, though with dice that are modestly biased to the downside. Indeed,
the present overvalued, overbought, overbullish syndrome tends to be
associated with a tendency for the market to repeatedly establish slight new
highs, with shallow pullbacks giving way to further marginal new highs over
a period of weeks. This instance has been no different. As we extend the
outlook horizon beyond several weeks, however, the risks we observe become
far more pointed. The most severe risk we measure is not the projected
return over any particular window such as 4 weeks or 6 months, but is
instead the likelihood of a particularly deep drawdown at some point within
the coming 18-month period. "
"Emphatically, none of these conditions have historically been sufficient to
rule out further short-term market gains. Overvalued conditions alone can
go on for several years; overvalued and overbought conditions together can
continue for quarters; overvalued, overbought, overbullish, rising-yield
conditions can continue for months; exhaustion syndromes can also extend for
a few months, even though they typically resolve with deep declines over a
longer horizon of about 6 months. During those intervening periods, as is
clear on the chart above, the market can gain further ground. It's just that
this ground is rarely durable, and the surrender of that ground tends to be
both steep and abrupt. "
注解:
壮烈牺牲的熊都是被凌迟处死的，壮烈牺牲的牛是被一刀直捅心脏。活下来的熊大多都体无完肤，活下来的牛大多都有精神后遗症。
全文link:
http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc120220.htm
"The bottom line is that near-term market direction is largely a throw of
the dice, though with dice that are modestly biased to the downside. Indeed,
the present overvalued, overbought, overbullish syndrome tends to be
associated with a tendency for the market to repeatedly establish slight new
highs, with shallow pullbacks giving way to further marginal new highs over
a period of weeks. This instance has been no different. As we extend the
outlook horizon beyond several weeks, however, the risks we observe become
far more pointed. The most severe risk we measure is not the projected
return over any particular window such as 4 weeks or 6 months, but is
instead the likelihood of a particularly deep drawdown at some point within
the coming 18-month period. "
"Emphatically, none of these conditions have historically been sufficient to
rule out further short-term market gains. Overvalued conditions alone can
go on for several years; overvalued and overbought conditions together can
continue for quarters; overvalued, overbought, overbullish, rising-yield
conditions can continue for months; exhaustion syndromes can also extend for
a few months, even though they typically resolve with deep declines over a
longer horizon of about 6 months. During those intervening periods, as is
clear on the chart above, the market can gain further ground. It's just that
this ground is rarely durable, and the surrender of that ground tends to be
both steep and abrupt. "
注解:
壮烈牺牲的熊都是被凌迟处死的，壮烈牺牲的牛是被一刀直捅心脏。活下来的熊大多都体无完肤，活下来的牛大多都有精神后遗症。
全文link:
http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc120220.htm
