QE3 or not? My personal 2 cents.# Stock
i*e
1 楼
Market cheers on possible sterilized QE. But, it that true?
To be honest, it is a long way to go from Fed's discussion to real application.
Some hawkish guys at the Fed are talking more aggressive measures to print
the money. But to be persuasive in their board meeting, one director must
present enough evidence to back up his tune. Nowaday, more and more academic
researches point out the velocity of money has largely decelerated in the
US after each QE and hence hint everyone the marginal effect of additional
QE could simply be none.
Given such academic atmosphere, I don't really think the hawkish directors
can go too far along the road.
Actually, the way they were releasing rumors to the WSJ just make me feel
the weakness of them. If you cannot convince your opposites on the table,
you may want to leverage on the media.
So don't bet too much on QE3. It is not a 99% yes vs 1% no event right now. A 50%-
50% might be more realistic and cautious way to look at it.
To be honest, it is a long way to go from Fed's discussion to real application.
Some hawkish guys at the Fed are talking more aggressive measures to print
the money. But to be persuasive in their board meeting, one director must
present enough evidence to back up his tune. Nowaday, more and more academic
researches point out the velocity of money has largely decelerated in the
US after each QE and hence hint everyone the marginal effect of additional
QE could simply be none.
Given such academic atmosphere, I don't really think the hawkish directors
can go too far along the road.
Actually, the way they were releasing rumors to the WSJ just make me feel
the weakness of them. If you cannot convince your opposites on the table,
you may want to leverage on the media.
So don't bet too much on QE3. It is not a 99% yes vs 1% no event right now. A 50%-
50% might be more realistic and cautious way to look at it.