‘extremely rare’ signs on rising recession risks (# Stock
c*r
1 楼
这么多不利因素合力作用，Fed恐怕也是无力回天了。。。
By David Rosenberg
1. The Philly Fed index: The Philly Fed index came in at -12.9 in July
and in the past three months has averaged -11.8. Rosenberg writes that an -
11.8 average over three months has "coincided with the U.S. economy tipping
over into recession seven of the eight times that such a negative reading
has occurred over such a time frame."
2. Retail sales: Retail sales crumbled in June falling 0.5 percent,
declining three months in a row. Looking back retail sales declining for
three consecutive months has only happened 2 percent of the time and each
time (barring one) it happened the economy was in a recession.Gary Shilling
has also pointed this out, and Rosenberg says what happened in the April-
June period was a one-in-50 event. "Moreover, the only time the economy was
not already in a recession with a three-in-a-row sales decline was in the
October - December 200 period amidst the tech wreckage – but the recession
began the very next quarter."
3. Employment: Wall Street can expect big layoffs with Morgan Stanley
joining Goldman Sachs in announcing job cuts for the second half of the year
. More significantly however, Rosenberg says another below 100,000 reading
on nonfarm payrolls for July will make it four-straight months of sub-100K
reading. In the past 50 years, only once did such a weak pace of job
creation fail to push the economy into a recession.
4. Disinflation: While food prices could be a wild card in terms of the
inflation, there has been a definite downward trend in inflation. "The flat
to negative readings in the past three months has led to a mild deflationary
environment where the CPI has declined at a 0.8 percent annual rate. How
common is that? Not very. It last happened at the depths of the Great
Recession in early 2009 and looking all the way back to 1950, is a one-in-20
event."
5. Exports:The ISM manufacturing export orders fell to 47.5 in June, the
lowest level since June 2009. The service sector export order index fell to
49.5, its lowest since July 2011. Exports, which accounted for over 40
percent of the pickup in real economic activity since the recession ended,
are starting to look weak.
6. Food costs: Grain prices surged 40 percent in little over a month and
this is going to hit household budgets. Moreover, every recession since
1970 was "preceded by a squeeze from surging food costs". Remember, food and
beverages account for 15 percent of the spending basket.
7. Fiscal Cliff: The Fiscal Cliff, which refers to $600 billion in tax
and spending provisions set to change at the end of the year, could shave
between four - five percent from GDP. With economic growth running at its
current pace Rosenberg writes "you do end up arithmetically with a severe
recession". The last two times (i.e. 1960 and 1969) we saw a fiscal
withdrawal as intense as the one coming in 2013, recessions followed.
By David Rosenberg
1. The Philly Fed index: The Philly Fed index came in at -12.9 in July
and in the past three months has averaged -11.8. Rosenberg writes that an -
11.8 average over three months has "coincided with the U.S. economy tipping
over into recession seven of the eight times that such a negative reading
has occurred over such a time frame."
2. Retail sales: Retail sales crumbled in June falling 0.5 percent,
declining three months in a row. Looking back retail sales declining for
three consecutive months has only happened 2 percent of the time and each
time (barring one) it happened the economy was in a recession.Gary Shilling
has also pointed this out, and Rosenberg says what happened in the April-
June period was a one-in-50 event. "Moreover, the only time the economy was
not already in a recession with a three-in-a-row sales decline was in the
October - December 200 period amidst the tech wreckage – but the recession
began the very next quarter."
3. Employment: Wall Street can expect big layoffs with Morgan Stanley
joining Goldman Sachs in announcing job cuts for the second half of the year
. More significantly however, Rosenberg says another below 100,000 reading
on nonfarm payrolls for July will make it four-straight months of sub-100K
reading. In the past 50 years, only once did such a weak pace of job
creation fail to push the economy into a recession.
4. Disinflation: While food prices could be a wild card in terms of the
inflation, there has been a definite downward trend in inflation. "The flat
to negative readings in the past three months has led to a mild deflationary
environment where the CPI has declined at a 0.8 percent annual rate. How
common is that? Not very. It last happened at the depths of the Great
Recession in early 2009 and looking all the way back to 1950, is a one-in-20
event."
5. Exports:The ISM manufacturing export orders fell to 47.5 in June, the
lowest level since June 2009. The service sector export order index fell to
49.5, its lowest since July 2011. Exports, which accounted for over 40
percent of the pickup in real economic activity since the recession ended,
are starting to look weak.
6. Food costs: Grain prices surged 40 percent in little over a month and
this is going to hit household budgets. Moreover, every recession since
1970 was "preceded by a squeeze from surging food costs". Remember, food and
beverages account for 15 percent of the spending basket.
7. Fiscal Cliff: The Fiscal Cliff, which refers to $600 billion in tax
and spending provisions set to change at the end of the year, could shave
between four - five percent from GDP. With economic growth running at its
current pace Rosenberg writes "you do end up arithmetically with a severe
recession". The last two times (i.e. 1960 and 1969) we saw a fiscal
withdrawal as intense as the one coming in 2013, recessions followed.
