it may have a technical retreat recently, but in the long run, it is in very good shape in US market, has limited european exposure. So it should be fine while most China solar company may go bankcrupt. then it is its time to go up and up due to the less competition. it has a p/b at 0.5 and most important, it has very limited debt. If the p/b goes to 0.8, it will goes up to 35 for sure. There will be a short term technical pull-back and huge short squeeze is going on.
for
【在 s******e 的大作中提到】 : 如果整个太阳能产业歇菜的话它也会完蛋 - that's wrong :) it will be great for : fslr as there's less supply in the market.
w*h
30 楼
40% of FSLR revenue came from German(So limited european exposure is WRONG STATEMENT). Its factory in German WILL be closed in 2012. So will the factory in Malaysia. the book value probably decrease 80% after all those factories close. so p/b might not be that important. If the backlog runs out on FSLR, it will go back to where it started. In the meanwhile, let us watch the short squeeze.
/b
【在 y*******o 的大作中提到】 : it may have a technical retreat recently, : but in the long run, it is in very good shape in US market, has limited : european exposure. So it should be fine while most China solar company may : go bankcrupt. then it is its time to go up and up due to the less : competition. : it has a p/b at 0.5 and most important, it has very limited debt. If the p/b : goes to 0.8, it will goes up to 35 for sure. There will be a short term : technical pull-back and huge short squeeze is going on. : : for
y*o
31 楼
I agree with you partially on the book value, but its total Property Plant and Equipment is 1.8B, which including all of its factory (US, Europe, and Asia) and its book value is 3.5B. Even if it write down half of its PPNE, its p/b is just at 0.75 level. It will generate lots of cash in recent 2 years due to all unearned revenue. It has 700m cash in hand so far and the market cap is 1800M. So I think the company is valued at a very low level. If the industry is gone, it dies for sure, but if the industry has someone remaining, it will be the one.
the
【在 w***h 的大作中提到】 : 40% of FSLR revenue came from German(So limited european exposure is WRONG : STATEMENT). Its factory in German WILL be closed in 2012. So will the : factory in Malaysia. the book value probably decrease 80% after all those : factories close. so p/b might not be that important. : If the backlog runs out on FSLR, it will go back to where it started. In the : meanwhile, let us watch the short squeeze. : : /b
they have already closed their factory in europe and had a huge huge write down last quarter. so the book value had already dropped. yet pb is still very low. i think it's 0.5? even if it gets no more new business, the contract they have in their backlog is around 6 billion, and that's signed contracts. their net margin is about 11 pct for these. so that's about 600 million. plus 600 milion cash , that's close to current market cap. in the er conference call, the ceo says they sighed $200 million new contracts, and currently negotiating 1bn more. lastly many of their competitors have a lot of debt. many utitities stop buying from asian supplier (stp) due to afraid of warranty wont be honored if supplier go bust.
the
【在 w***h 的大作中提到】 : 40% of FSLR revenue came from German(So limited european exposure is WRONG : STATEMENT). Its factory in German WILL be closed in 2012. So will the : factory in Malaysia. the book value probably decrease 80% after all those : factories close. so p/b might not be that important. : If the backlog runs out on FSLR, it will go back to where it started. In the : meanwhile, let us watch the short squeeze. : : /b
s*e
34 楼
they have already wrote down their europe assets in the last few quarters. if u take their current assets munus their current liabilty, that will be the cash u will get if they get liquidated immediated.well,maybe minus some more assuming u will have to sell inventories at at discount. the final amount is close to current market cap.
generate
【在 y*******o 的大作中提到】 : I agree with you partially on the book value, : but its total Property Plant and Equipment is 1.8B, which including all of : its factory (US, Europe, and Asia) and its book value is 3.5B. Even if it : write down half of its PPNE, its p/b is just at 0.75 level. It will generate : lots of cash in recent 2 years due to all unearned revenue. It has 700m : cash in hand so far and the market cap is 1800M. So I think the company is : valued at a very low level. If the industry is gone, it dies for sure, but : if the industry has someone remaining, it will be the one. : : the