b*r
2 楼
我13块多割肉的,要不要买回来?大牛,买一送一了。。。
H*i
3 楼
今天最流行的战术就是买靠买扑,但是扑靠都很贵,所以挤了一身汗,虽然买扑赚了钱
,但是买靠要亏钱,最后顶多跟市场打个平手。
,但是买靠要亏钱,最后顶多跟市场打个平手。
H*i
10 楼
白天交易量大约是25 million,盘后到现在已经交易了五六个million了。这种释放是
好的,否则明天释放会跌更多。
好的,否则明天释放会跌更多。
s*n
11 楼
看来,所谓的ER泄露是个阳谋。。
H*i
12 楼
CFO在业绩之前卖股是最坏的信号。
H*i
13 楼
明天analyst发布研究报告,大概十个有六个吵着要买入,同时降低目标价格。说什么
有concern,但是foundamental is solid,等等。
高盛的报告初稿立刻出来了:(注意这只是初稿)
Groupon 2Q First Take: Revenue lower than expected, but lower marketing
spend and better take rate push EPS higher.
Key takeaways:
■Revenue came in at $568mn (+38% yoy), which was below our estimate of $
580mn and consensus of $575mn, but in line with guidance of $550mn to $590mn
. Excluding a $32.4mn unfavorable fx impact, revenue growth would have been
+53% yoy.
■Groupon Goods surpassed the $200mn annual revenue run-rate in 2Q, which
the company accounts for on a gross basis.
■CSOI of $72mn was in line with our estimate of $73mn, above consensus of $
69mn and in line with guidance of $60mn to $80mn.
■Non-GAAP EPS of $0.08 was above our estimate of $0.03 and above consensus
of $0.03.
2Q results analysis:
■North American revenue of $260mn was above our estimate of $223mn and
above consensus of $243mn.
■Take rate of 44.2% was above our estimate of 39.7% and above consensus of
40.1%.
■Marketing expense of $88mn (15.6% of sales) was below our estimate of $
125mn and below management's 20% long-term target.
3Q guidance:
■Revenue guidance of $580mn to $620mn brackets our estimate of $614mn and
consensus of $605mn.
■CSOI guidance of $45mn to $65mn was below our estimate of $82mn and below
consensus of $76mn.
有concern,但是foundamental is solid,等等。
高盛的报告初稿立刻出来了:(注意这只是初稿)
Groupon 2Q First Take: Revenue lower than expected, but lower marketing
spend and better take rate push EPS higher.
Key takeaways:
■Revenue came in at $568mn (+38% yoy), which was below our estimate of $
580mn and consensus of $575mn, but in line with guidance of $550mn to $590mn
. Excluding a $32.4mn unfavorable fx impact, revenue growth would have been
+53% yoy.
■Groupon Goods surpassed the $200mn annual revenue run-rate in 2Q, which
the company accounts for on a gross basis.
■CSOI of $72mn was in line with our estimate of $73mn, above consensus of $
69mn and in line with guidance of $60mn to $80mn.
■Non-GAAP EPS of $0.08 was above our estimate of $0.03 and above consensus
of $0.03.
2Q results analysis:
■North American revenue of $260mn was above our estimate of $223mn and
above consensus of $243mn.
■Take rate of 44.2% was above our estimate of 39.7% and above consensus of
40.1%.
■Marketing expense of $88mn (15.6% of sales) was below our estimate of $
125mn and below management's 20% long-term target.
3Q guidance:
■Revenue guidance of $580mn to $620mn brackets our estimate of $614mn and
consensus of $605mn.
■CSOI guidance of $45mn to $65mn was below our estimate of $82mn and below
consensus of $76mn.
s*o
14 楼
谁用个如胖买东西,反正我是从来没用过,都是些没用的东西
i*e
15 楼
ORZ
U*f
18 楼
Groupon盈利了比销售增长少点其实更让我放心。
它的ACCOUNTS RECEIVABLE比上季要少24M,要加上这个它的销售就不会MISS掉。
我看管理层肯定改过了业绩,把一些销售收入没有INVOICE,放到下季来用。
主要是担心股价涨得太猛了,有业绩泄露之嫌。
它的销售收入下季将会很好,
主要是因为,它开始用DIRECT REVENUE这个科目了。
大家记得它因为用GROSS BILL来记REVENUE受到SEC的调查。
现在它就先买货,再卖出去,(主要是ONLINE 的GOODS SALE, 发果是服务业就还是记
原来的)就不走GROSS BILL这条路,以后直接记作REVENUE,销售额将大大跳升。
它的ACCOUNTS RECEIVABLE比上季要少24M,要加上这个它的销售就不会MISS掉。
我看管理层肯定改过了业绩,把一些销售收入没有INVOICE,放到下季来用。
主要是担心股价涨得太猛了,有业绩泄露之嫌。
它的销售收入下季将会很好,
主要是因为,它开始用DIRECT REVENUE这个科目了。
大家记得它因为用GROSS BILL来记REVENUE受到SEC的调查。
现在它就先买货,再卖出去,(主要是ONLINE 的GOODS SALE, 发果是服务业就还是记
原来的)就不走GROSS BILL这条路,以后直接记作REVENUE,销售额将大大跳升。
f*i
19 楼
这些会计条目的变动很可能已经price in了
学术界研究accrual earnings management,accrual pricing很多年了,有各种model
,前些年还有fund利用accrual anomaly 做trading strategy的
其实会计报表里出现的数字的信息量都很滞后了
【在 U********f 的大作中提到】
: Groupon盈利了比销售增长少点其实更让我放心。
: 它的ACCOUNTS RECEIVABLE比上季要少24M,要加上这个它的销售就不会MISS掉。
: 我看管理层肯定改过了业绩,把一些销售收入没有INVOICE,放到下季来用。
: 主要是担心股价涨得太猛了,有业绩泄露之嫌。
: 它的销售收入下季将会很好,
: 主要是因为,它开始用DIRECT REVENUE这个科目了。
: 大家记得它因为用GROSS BILL来记REVENUE受到SEC的调查。
: 现在它就先买货,再卖出去,(主要是ONLINE 的GOODS SALE, 发果是服务业就还是记
: 原来的)就不走GROSS BILL这条路,以后直接记作REVENUE,销售额将大大跳升。
学术界研究accrual earnings management,accrual pricing很多年了,有各种model
,前些年还有fund利用accrual anomaly 做trading strategy的
其实会计报表里出现的数字的信息量都很滞后了
【在 U********f 的大作中提到】
: Groupon盈利了比销售增长少点其实更让我放心。
: 它的ACCOUNTS RECEIVABLE比上季要少24M,要加上这个它的销售就不会MISS掉。
: 我看管理层肯定改过了业绩,把一些销售收入没有INVOICE,放到下季来用。
: 主要是担心股价涨得太猛了,有业绩泄露之嫌。
: 它的销售收入下季将会很好,
: 主要是因为,它开始用DIRECT REVENUE这个科目了。
: 大家记得它因为用GROSS BILL来记REVENUE受到SEC的调查。
: 现在它就先买货,再卖出去,(主要是ONLINE 的GOODS SALE, 发果是服务业就还是记
: 原来的)就不走GROSS BILL这条路,以后直接记作REVENUE,销售额将大大跳升。
f*i
20 楼
那些fund的model已经很sophisticated,非常多的变量,除了各种数字,有些fund把新
闻里的字都code了,做textual analysis,研究market sentiment
闻里的字都code了,做textual analysis,研究market sentiment
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