我和朋友的几个EMAIL来往 - 未名空间MITBBS历史存档

我和朋友的几个EMAIL来往# Stock

z*g2012-11-15 08:11

1 楼

这里是我昨天和一位朋友之间的几个EMAIL往来
Me：
-------
You were really better than me. You felt this more than 1000 points
drop two months ago. I did not see that. From the top till now, I have
always been bullish.
Recently there have been quite some discussion in our forums about my
system. In the past years, I have been rarely wrong in predicting the
intermediate market trend. But this time I am deadly wrong. Now they
doubt if there can be any system which can be right in the stock
market. I would say I lost my confidence in my system this time.
Yesterday, I saw clearly that big institution have covered shorts and
puts. So I told them the intermediate bottom of this correction is in.
But today it continues to drop.
I do not know if I will ever be able to develop something that I can
100% rely on. Lost confidence some how.
-----------------------
My friend:
------------------------
People like myself are boycotting the market until there are reforms....the
only way to make money in this market is buy at a price you are willing to
hold...if things get low enough...I may get back in....but the market is
like flipping a coin..one day up one day down,
The only reason the stock market is higher is that people are getting zero
in the bank or CD's...so they are taking risks in the market and will get
burned....The best investment is income property....forget the Wall Street
casino..

v*e2012-11-15 08:11

2 楼

什么是 income property？

M*i2012-11-15 08:11

3 楼

买房出租

【在 v*******e 的大作中提到】

: 什么是 income property？

i*d2012-11-15 08:11

4 楼

没有任何系统能100%，你的系统已经很不错了。

【在 z****g 的大作中提到】

: 这里是我昨天和一位朋友之间的几个EMAIL往来
: Me：
: -------
: You were really better than me. You felt this more than 1000 points
: drop two months ago. I did not see that. From the top till now, I have
: always been bullish.
: Recently there have been quite some discussion in our forums about my
: system. In the past years, I have been rarely wrong in predicting the
: intermediate market trend. But this time I am deadly wrong. Now they
: doubt if there can be any system which can be right in the stock

s*r2012-11-15 08:11

5 楼

totally agree.
all my friends told me to buy property to rent at least 6~10% annual return.

r*l2012-11-15 08:11

6 楼

income property很费神啊，炒股按按鼠标就行了，呵呵

k*82012-11-15 08:11

7 楼

紫荆，
你的朋友根本不懂投资/机
你还是别和他聊这些了，浪费时间

【在 z****g 的大作中提到】

: 这里是我昨天和一位朋友之间的几个EMAIL往来
: Me：
: -------
: You were really better than me. You felt this more than 1000 points
: drop two months ago. I did not see that. From the top till now, I have
: always been bullish.
: Recently there have been quite some discussion in our forums about my
: system. In the past years, I have been rarely wrong in predicting the
: intermediate market trend. But this time I am deadly wrong. Now they
: doubt if there can be any system which can be right in the stock

a*t2012-11-15 08:11

8 楼

什么时候紫晶姐姐被打倒了，就是我的帐户的出头之日了。呵呵。

S*P2012-11-15 08:11

9 楼

exactly

【在 k********8 的大作中提到】

: 紫荆，
: 你的朋友根本不懂投资/机
: 你还是别和他聊这些了，浪费时间

l*m2012-11-15 08:11

10 楼

别乱讲，她的朋友就是明大牛

【在 k********8 的大作中提到】

: 紫荆，
: 你的朋友根本不懂投资/机
: 你还是别和他聊这些了，浪费时间

z*g2012-11-15 08:11

11 楼

我的朋友的话老让我想起明大牛。还是请明大牛就Income Property和WALL STREET
CASINO的问题给咱们开个讲座吧

【在 l*********m 的大作中提到】

: 别乱讲，她的朋友就是明大牛

k*82012-11-15 08:11

12 楼

ouchh!!
oh my god!
my bad, my bad!

【在 l*********m 的大作中提到】

: 别乱讲，她的朋友就是明大牛

s*r2012-11-15 08:11

13 楼

can not help myself chiming in, Daniu Jingjing, developing a system that you
could 100% rely on?, r u just kidding yourself or kidding us? Simply give
up trying to attain the unattainable.

【在 z****g 的大作中提到】

: 这里是我昨天和一位朋友之间的几个EMAIL往来
: Me：
: -------
: You were really better than me. You felt this more than 1000 points
: drop two months ago. I did not see that. From the top till now, I have
: always been bullish.
: Recently there have been quite some discussion in our forums about my
: system. In the past years, I have been rarely wrong in predicting the
: intermediate market trend. But this time I am deadly wrong. Now they
: doubt if there can be any system which can be right in the stock

k*42012-11-15 08:11

14 楼

right, anything greater than 50% will be something,
will be amazing if u get it right 7 times out of 10.

you

【在 s*****r 的大作中提到】

: can not help myself chiming in, Daniu Jingjing, developing a system that you
: could 100% rely on?, r u just kidding yourself or kidding us? Simply give
: up trying to attain the unattainable.

z*g2012-11-15 08:11

15 楼

尽管是MISSION IMPOSSIBLE,但是如果没有高准确率可依赖的判断，那还是不要在股市
里玩比较好。

you

【在 s*****r 的大作中提到】

: can not help myself chiming in, Daniu Jingjing, developing a system that you
: could 100% rely on?, r u just kidding yourself or kidding us? Simply give
: up trying to attain the unattainable.

z*n2012-11-15 08:11

16 楼

nothing wrong sharing your opnions
we should all know nothing is 100% guaranteed

【在 z****g 的大作中提到】

: 这里是我昨天和一位朋友之间的几个EMAIL往来
: Me：
: -------
: You were really better than me. You felt this more than 1000 points
: drop two months ago. I did not see that. From the top till now, I have
: always been bullish.
: Recently there have been quite some discussion in our forums about my
: system. In the past years, I have been rarely wrong in predicting the
: intermediate market trend. But this time I am deadly wrong. Now they
: doubt if there can be any system which can be right in the stock

k*42012-11-15 08:11

17 楼

it is mission impossible: too many things to factor in ,unpredictable
economic policies and data is not always available.I suggest you give a
probability later on, like the weather forecast, for example,the probability
of going up is 34%...

【在 z****g 的大作中提到】

: 尽管是MISSION IMPOSSIBLE,但是如果没有高准确率可依赖的判断，那还是不要在股市
: 里玩比较好。
:
: you

m*i2012-11-15 08:11

18 楼

不要乱讲，我可是离不开Wall Street 这个Casino。
Even I lost lots of money in this casino over the last couple of days.

【在 l*********m 的大作中提到】

: 别乱讲，她的朋友就是明大牛

k*82012-11-15 08:11

19 楼

明达牛，NCT开始暴涨暴跌了，你还稳拿吗？

【在 m*****i 的大作中提到】

: 不要乱讲，我可是离不开Wall Street 这个Casino。
: Even I lost lots of money in this casino over the last couple of days.

z*g2012-11-15 08:11

20 楼

明大牛，想死你了，你要赞助我得一半长江商学院的学费还在吗？
快给咱说说WALL STREET CASINO和INCOME Property你的心得

【在 m*****i 的大作中提到】

: 不要乱讲，我可是离不开Wall Street 这个Casino。
: Even I lost lots of money in this casino over the last couple of days.

o*s2012-11-15 08:11

21 楼

why do you use one fixed system to treat changed market from last year to
this year. no damn single system can be used for ever.

【在 z****g 的大作中提到】

: 这里是我昨天和一位朋友之间的几个EMAIL往来
: Me：
: -------
: You were really better than me. You felt this more than 1000 points
: drop two months ago. I did not see that. From the top till now, I have
: always been bullish.
: Recently there have been quite some discussion in our forums about my
: system. In the past years, I have been rarely wrong in predicting the
: intermediate market trend. But this time I am deadly wrong. Now they
: doubt if there can be any system which can be right in the stock

m*i2012-11-15 08:11

22 楼

昨天，跌的我莫名其妙啊。
I sold 15K on November 6th, still keep 10,000 shares. Bought some shares
this morning. Will sell some and keep some.

【在 k********8 的大作中提到】

: 明达牛，NCT开始暴涨暴跌了，你还稳拿吗？

m*i2012-11-15 08:11

23 楼

Sorry, I lost all the tuition money, still can afford to buy an airline
ticket if we can meet this weekend.

【在 z****g 的大作中提到】

: 明大牛，想死你了，你要赞助我得一半长江商学院的学费还在吗？
: 快给咱说说WALL STREET CASINO和INCOME Property你的心得

k*82012-11-15 08:11

24 楼

the big chart doesn't look that well...
but it could turn out like wnr style

【在 m*****i 的大作中提到】

: 昨天，跌的我莫名其妙啊。
: I sold 15K on November 6th, still keep 10,000 shares. Bought some shares
: this morning. Will sell some and keep some.

z*g2012-11-15 08:11

25 楼

明大牛，实话说，我通信的这位朋友是位房地产大亨，做的规模挺大的，我也想向他学
习。不过，还是先向你学习学习。你给咱上上课好吗

【在 m*****i 的大作中提到】

: Sorry, I lost all the tuition money, still can afford to buy an airline
: ticket if we can meet this weekend.

m*i2012-11-15 08:11

26 楼

I never believe the chart just look at the fundamental., Bought 30K this
morning.
missed the low this morning.

【在 k********8 的大作中提到】

: the big chart doesn't look that well...
: but it could turn out like wnr style

v*e2012-11-15 08:11

27 楼

支持紫晶mm

k*82012-11-15 08:11

28 楼

have u ever thought about having further development in relationship with
that friend?
but i think u and 明达牛也很配！明达牛负责在外面搞房子刷油漆补灰板找房客，你
负责在家炒股票倒腾系统买买提灌水！

【在 z****g 的大作中提到】

: 明大牛，实话说，我通信的这位朋友是位房地产大亨，做的规模挺大的，我也想向他学
: 习。不过，还是先向你学习学习。你给咱上上课好吗

t*32012-11-15 08:11

29 楼

how high is "高准确率"?

【在 z****g 的大作中提到】

: 尽管是MISSION IMPOSSIBLE,但是如果没有高准确率可依赖的判断，那还是不要在股市
: 里玩比较好。
:
: you

m*i2012-11-15 08:11

30 楼

我只是几套破房子收收租而已。

【在 z****g 的大作中提到】

: 明大牛，实话说，我通信的这位朋友是位房地产大亨，做的规模挺大的，我也想向他学
: 习。不过，还是先向你学习学习。你给咱上上课好吗

k*82012-11-15 08:11

31 楼

fundiwise, i think real estate is good.
but who knows what's the stock price gonna turn out in couple of month...it
maynot affect the big trend but could develop very good swing opportunity
for better position.

【在 m*****i 的大作中提到】

: I never believe the chart just look at the fundamental., Bought 30K this
: morning.
: missed the low this morning.

m*i2012-11-15 08:11

32 楼

NCT's manaagement is very good.
For the day like yesterday, you are just too scare to add any poition. after
all, why on earth, people would dump a solid company with over 10% dividend
payment is beyoond my comprehension.

it

【在 k********8 的大作中提到】

: fundiwise, i think real estate is good.
: but who knows what's the stock price gonna turn out in couple of month...it
: maynot affect the big trend but could develop very good swing opportunity
: for better position.

k*82012-11-15 08:11

33 楼

if big environment is bad, i wouldn't mind taking some profit off of the
table and buy back when stable, even if there's a chance that i'd need to
pay a premium.
but of course this is small money's mind. big player doesn't have such
luxury to get in get out easily.

after
dividend

【在 m*****i 的大作中提到】

: NCT's manaagement is very good.
: For the day like yesterday, you are just too scare to add any poition. after
: all, why on earth, people would dump a solid company with over 10% dividend
: payment is beyoond my comprehension.
:
: it

z*g2012-11-15 08:11

34 楼

我这位朋友是做COMMERCIAL PROPERTY INVESTMENT，我其实不太懂呢。

m*i2012-11-15 08:11

35 楼

History proved again and again, I don't have the ability to time the market.
With the interest rate so low, and fed would take agressive action for
printing morning, I just don't see the stock has big down side with only
traded 12 time next year earning.

【在 k********8 的大作中提到】

: if big environment is bad, i wouldn't mind taking some profit off of the
: table and buy back when stable, even if there's a chance that i'd need to
: pay a premium.
: but of course this is small money's mind. big player doesn't have such
: luxury to get in get out easily.
:
: after
: dividend

a*t2012-11-15 08:11

36 楼

紫晶姐姐，你朋友做包租公的，顶多到REITs，你和他讨论“系统”，他懂吗？

【在 z****g 的大作中提到】

: 我这位朋友是做COMMERCIAL PROPERTY INVESTMENT，我其实不太懂呢。

z*g2012-11-15 08:11

37 楼

他做得很大。想学，不知道怎么开始学。现在买小破房倒腾，但做不大啊。

【在 a********t 的大作中提到】

: 紫晶姐姐，你朋友做包租公的，顶多到REITs，你和他讨论“系统”，他懂吗？

m*i2012-11-15 08:11

38 楼

I don't know either. It's more risky then residential, but more reward.

【在 z****g 的大作中提到】

: 我这位朋友是做COMMERCIAL PROPERTY INVESTMENT，我其实不太懂呢。

c*o2012-11-15 08:11

39 楼

I love this spirit...LOL

【在 m*****i 的大作中提到】

: Sorry, I lost all the tuition money, still can afford to buy an airline
: ticket if we can meet this weekend.

k*82012-11-15 08:11

40 楼

short term liquidity rush could ruin the big picture or at least delay the
expected result. my trading is heavily leveraged so i don't have ur luxury
of maintaining peaceful mind when mkt go against u in short term.

market.

【在 m*****i 的大作中提到】

: History proved again and again, I don't have the ability to time the market.
: With the interest rate so low, and fed would take agressive action for
: printing morning, I just don't see the stock has big down side with only
: traded 12 time next year earning.

x*72012-11-15 08:11

41 楼

hehe,紫晶也有钻牛角尖的时候。

【在 z****g 的大作中提到】

: 尽管是MISSION IMPOSSIBLE,但是如果没有高准确率可依赖的判断，那还是不要在股市
: 里玩比较好。
:
: you

c*o2012-11-15 08:11

42 楼

then deleverage...LOL

【在 k********8 的大作中提到】

: short term liquidity rush could ruin the big picture or at least delay the
: expected result. my trading is heavily leveraged so i don't have ur luxury
: of maintaining peaceful mind when mkt go against u in short term.
:
: market.

k*g2012-11-15 08:11

43 楼

commercial real estate其实操心要比residential小很多，因为租约是几年一签的，
房子内部都是租户负责的，比如马桶漏水。只要买的低点恰当，commercial real
estate作为投资比residential要好得多。

【在 z****g 的大作中提到】

: 他做得很大。想学，不知道怎么开始学。现在买小破房倒腾，但做不大啊。

k*82012-11-15 08:11

44 楼

no.

【在 c*********o 的大作中提到】

: then deleverage...LOL

s*72012-11-15 08:11

45 楼

明大牛的破房子都在明州还是各处都有啊？

【在 m*****i 的大作中提到】

: 我只是几套破房子收收租而已。

z*g2012-11-15 08:11

46 楼

这么说吧，我的系统是我多年来依据看大盘的东西，通常准确率还比较高，但是现
在市场已经证明在目前市场条件下，我的系统看到的东西是错误的，我只能说，今后我
可能考虑向房地产方向投资，因为对于股市的预测我没有能力比我目前做的更好。
总结一下我这么长时间看到的东西，就是错的也要说。我近来几个月一直看到花街中长
期是牛市，做牛主力从来就没撤退过。两天前，我看到大量的SHORT和PUT已经了结，所
以我得出结论中期调整已经结束了。

a*t2012-11-15 08:11

47 楼

紫晶姐姐你的系统基本上就是变相地看资金流入和VIX。Options的open interest数据
不准的。再加上roll over的情况，就更不准了。
我个人认为，看债券、商品、外汇来预测的赢面还可能大些。

【在 z****g 的大作中提到】

: 这么说吧，我的系统是我多年来依据看大盘的东西，通常准确率还比较高，但是现
: 在市场已经证明在目前市场条件下，我的系统看到的东西是错误的，我只能说，今后我
: 可能考虑向房地产方向投资，因为对于股市的预测我没有能力比我目前做的更好。
: 总结一下我这么长时间看到的东西，就是错的也要说。我近来几个月一直看到花街中长
: 期是牛市，做牛主力从来就没撤退过。两天前，我看到大量的SHORT和PUT已经了结，所
: 以我得出结论中期调整已经结束了。

b*72012-11-15 08:11

48 楼

大牛威武。。
偶401K死握NCT，希望他们能发股息一万年

【在 m*****i 的大作中提到】

: I never believe the chart just look at the fundamental., Bought 30K this
: morning.
: missed the low this morning.

z*e2012-11-15 08:11

49 楼

有可能大户的put主要用来hedge，所以一边卖股票一边了结put
可能你看到的是对的，但大跌时结论就不一样？

【在 z****g 的大作中提到】

: 这么说吧，我的系统是我多年来依据看大盘的东西，通常准确率还比较高，但是现
: 在市场已经证明在目前市场条件下，我的系统看到的东西是错误的，我只能说，今后我
: 可能考虑向房地产方向投资，因为对于股市的预测我没有能力比我目前做的更好。
: 总结一下我这么长时间看到的东西，就是错的也要说。我近来几个月一直看到花街中长
: 期是牛市，做牛主力从来就没撤退过。两天前，我看到大量的SHORT和PUT已经了结，所
: 以我得出结论中期调整已经结束了。