我来说说short - 未名空间MITBBS历史存档

我来说说short# Stock

r*l2013-01-24 08:01

1 楼

我个人一直比较反对short,刚才回个帖打的英文，大家凑合看吧
the max loss of long is 100% while short is unlimited. People may argue this
doesn't apply for most of big stocks. That is true. but the most I am
concerned about shorting is mind peace. It will be very hard to keep mind
peaceful if everybody else is making money but you are losing money by
shorting....
Unless I see an obviously overvalued stock which I understand, I won't short
. Last time I short was 1.5 years ago shorting yoku and dang. At that time,
yoku was crazy overvalued, 2-3 times more expensive than ntes/sohu. That is
pretty safe money.
Another example is FB. FB was IPO at $38 (about 100B market cap). At that
time (may 2012), goog's price was only $600 with market cap 200b. But google
's revenue is 10 times more than FB. Yes, FB is growing faster, but still no
way to justify that FB's IPO market cap was half of goog. So there are
three scenarios, either FB is too expensive or goog is too cheap or both. I
seriously considered short FB and long goog at that time, but finally didn't
do it because of cautiousness.
this is my opinion. If you can win in stock market, you don't need to short
at all. If you can't win, shorting only makes you lose quicker...

b*n2013-01-24 08:01

2 楼

不要short。觉得要short的时候，就买长期的DIM put。

H*e2013-01-24 08:01

3 楼

hehe, good point of view....

【在 b*****n 的大作中提到】

: 不要short。觉得要short的时候，就买长期的DIM put。

y*o2013-01-24 08:01

4 楼

in fact short fb and long goog is a good strategy at that time
it is called market neutral if your short beta * shares equal to long beta *
shares.
like if you think travel stock are good, but there are some overvalue some
undervalue, then long pcln and short oww. So, your decision on based on the
micro analysis but not the macro analysis.
You can also do sector spread, like if you think tech is overvalued but
financial will keep momentum, you can short tech etf but long financial etf.
Short is not evil. In fact,the risk for short is not necessary higher than
buy. if you short nok at 2 and bear stern @ 4 then you are doomed. So before
you open your short position, ask yourself, what is maximun profit you will
get. Like shorting aapl today, how much you expect to reach? Is there lots
of room for profit and what is the risk for that?
I short aapl before er and add more today. But I will cover before tomorrow
market open due to the small profit room but higher risk.
But when you short aapl @ 700 and wmt @80, you are almost risk free. At
least even if aapl goes to 1000(what is chance for that), you just lose 50%
of your position. For many trades, it is very for you to lose more than that
.
But short is indeed hard.

this
short
,
is

【在 r***l 的大作中提到】

: 我个人一直比较反对short,刚才回个帖打的英文，大家凑合看吧
: the max loss of long is 100% while short is unlimited. People may argue this
: doesn't apply for most of big stocks. That is true. but the most I am
: concerned about shorting is mind peace. It will be very hard to keep mind
: peaceful if everybody else is making money but you are losing money by
: shorting....
: Unless I see an obviously overvalued stock which I understand, I won't short
: . Last time I short was 1.5 years ago shorting yoku and dang. At that time,
: yoku was crazy overvalued, 2-3 times more expensive than ntes/sohu. That is
: pretty safe money.

y*o2013-01-24 08:01

5 楼

this is a good way to avoid borrow cost,
but the leverage will be pretty high.

【在 b*****n 的大作中提到】

: 不要short。觉得要short的时候，就买长期的DIM put。

x*n2013-01-24 08:01

6 楼

我也经常喜欢比较。比较同类型的价格走位。
有的时候觉得是对的，有的时候觉得是错的。

H*e2013-01-24 08:01

7 楼

How about short yhoo @ 20?

*
the
etf.
before

【在 y*******o 的大作中提到】

: in fact short fb and long goog is a good strategy at that time
: it is called market neutral if your short beta * shares equal to long beta *
: shares.
: like if you think travel stock are good, but there are some overvalue some
: undervalue, then long pcln and short oww. So, your decision on based on the
: micro analysis but not the macro analysis.
: You can also do sector spread, like if you think tech is overvalued but
: financial will keep momentum, you can short tech etf but long financial etf.
: Short is not evil. In fact,the risk for short is not necessary higher than
: buy. if you short nok at 2 and bear stern @ 4 then you are doomed. So before

W*r2013-01-24 08:01

8 楼

short可以用来做hedge。

g*22013-01-24 08:01

9 楼

赞

this
short
,
is

【在 r***l 的大作中提到】

: 我个人一直比较反对short,刚才回个帖打的英文，大家凑合看吧
: the max loss of long is 100% while short is unlimited. People may argue this
: doesn't apply for most of big stocks. That is true. but the most I am
: concerned about shorting is mind peace. It will be very hard to keep mind
: peaceful if everybody else is making money but you are losing money by
: shorting....
: Unless I see an obviously overvalued stock which I understand, I won't short
: . Last time I short was 1.5 years ago shorting yoku and dang. At that time,
: yoku was crazy overvalued, 2-3 times more expensive than ntes/sohu. That is
: pretty safe money.

p*o2013-01-24 08:01

10 楼

对！

【在 b*****n 的大作中提到】

: 不要short。觉得要short的时候，就买长期的DIM put。

k*n2013-01-24 08:01

11 楼

most people do NOT need to hedge
onc can simply reduce the long positions if not comfortable
people who can not even manage well on one side of the trade will most
likely be worse when managing two opposite positions
only big insitutions whose long positions are too large to exit need
to hedge.
back to LZ's post, I do NOT short either. Even market is in a down trend,
I try to play the counter trend rally instead of shorting the market.

【在 W******r 的大作中提到】

: short可以用来做hedge。

r*l2013-01-24 08:01

12 楼

I hold the same views. I really don't understand why a lot of people (a lot
of frogs actually) here talking about "hedge". The only legitimate "hedge"
for us is covered call. Other than that, just reduce your load. so-called "
hedge" position only brings more trouble and nervousness to you.

【在 k***n 的大作中提到】

: most people do NOT need to hedge
: onc can simply reduce the long positions if not comfortable
: people who can not even manage well on one side of the trade will most
: likely be worse when managing two opposite positions
: only big insitutions whose long positions are too large to exit need
: to hedge.
: back to LZ's post, I do NOT short either. Even market is in a down trend,
: I try to play the counter trend rally instead of shorting the market.

H*12013-01-24 08:01

13 楼

晕掉了！
比如现在你手里半仓苹果，而且决心不到三年后不卖，但你又知道它还要大跌。你就需
要1.买PUT或者2 烧QQQ 这样能维持你的账户平衡。当然，这样或许会错，但技术上应
该这样。

lot

【在 r***l 的大作中提到】

: I hold the same views. I really don't understand why a lot of people (a lot
: of frogs actually) here talking about "hedge". The only legitimate "hedge"
: for us is covered call. Other than that, just reduce your load. so-called "
: hedge" position only brings more trouble and nervousness to you.

m*12013-01-24 08:01

14 楼

强烈建议别这么干，刚换了CFO，未来飘起的可能性很大！

【在 H******e 的大作中提到】

: How about short yhoo @ 20?
:
: *
: the
: etf.
: before

r*l2013-01-24 08:01

15 楼

我要是知道要大跌，为什么不现在卖掉？以后再捞？
再说，"账户平衡"怎么讲？买put没那么容易的，买OTM的，的确便宜，但很大可能变
废纸，即使大跌，put也就是可以cap损失，实际损失还是很大。如果买ATM或者ITM,的
确可以减少可能的损失，但option贵的要死，可真涨上去put狂贬值，也赚不多，瞎折
腾啥？烧qqq就不说了，纯粹是自找麻烦，直接卖covered call简单明了

【在 H**********1 的大作中提到】

: 晕掉了！
: 比如现在你手里半仓苹果，而且决心不到三年后不卖，但你又知道它还要大跌。你就需
: 要1.买PUT或者2 烧QQQ 这样能维持你的账户平衡。当然，这样或许会错，但技术上应
: 该这样。
:
: lot

H*e2013-01-24 08:01

16 楼

frog's question: what is the counter trend rally? How to play?

【在 k***n 的大作中提到】

: most people do NOT need to hedge
: onc can simply reduce the long positions if not comfortable
: people who can not even manage well on one side of the trade will most
: likely be worse when managing two opposite positions
: only big insitutions whose long positions are too large to exit need
: to hedge.
: back to LZ's post, I do NOT short either. Even market is in a down trend,
: I try to play the counter trend rally instead of shorting the market.

H*12013-01-24 08:01

17 楼

做长期的，你不懂的。另外是估计大跌，不是知道大跌。
账户平衡牵扯到购买力的问题。

【在 r***l 的大作中提到】

: 我要是知道要大跌，为什么不现在卖掉？以后再捞？
: 再说，"账户平衡"怎么讲？买put没那么容易的，买OTM的，的确便宜，但很大可能变
: 废纸，即使大跌，put也就是可以cap损失，实际损失还是很大。如果买ATM或者ITM,的
: 确可以减少可能的损失，但option贵的要死，可真涨上去put狂贬值，也赚不多，瞎折
: 腾啥？烧qqq就不说了，纯粹是自找麻烦，直接卖covered call简单明了

c*o2013-01-24 08:01

18 楼

No DANIU will support you...LOL.

【在 H******e 的大作中提到】

: How about short yhoo @ 20?
:
: *
: the
: etf.
: before

c*o2013-01-24 08:01

19 楼

这篇我收藏了, 谢谢!

【在 k***n 的大作中提到】

: most people do NOT need to hedge
: onc can simply reduce the long positions if not comfortable
: people who can not even manage well on one side of the trade will most
: likely be worse when managing two opposite positions
: only big insitutions whose long positions are too large to exit need
: to hedge.
: back to LZ's post, I do NOT short either. Even market is in a down trend,
: I try to play the counter trend rally instead of shorting the market.

c*o2013-01-24 08:01

20 楼

这篇也收藏了, 谢谢!

*
the
etf.
before

【在 y*******o 的大作中提到】

: in fact short fb and long goog is a good strategy at that time
: it is called market neutral if your short beta * shares equal to long beta *
: shares.
: like if you think travel stock are good, but there are some overvalue some
: undervalue, then long pcln and short oww. So, your decision on based on the
: micro analysis but not the macro analysis.
: You can also do sector spread, like if you think tech is overvalued but
: financial will keep momentum, you can short tech etf but long financial etf.
: Short is not evil. In fact,the risk for short is not necessary higher than
: buy. if you short nok at 2 and bear stern @ 4 then you are doomed. So before

b*r2013-01-24 08:01

21 楼

kao，太青蛙了，谁在知道要大跌时候卖靠。都是拿了个健康成长但长得慢的或者横盘
太久的卖心理卖出价位之上的靠，被靠走不可惜，不然下次接着卖。。。

【在 H**********1 的大作中提到】

: 做长期的，你不懂的。另外是估计大跌，不是知道大跌。
: 账户平衡牵扯到购买力的问题。

m*o2013-01-24 08:01

22 楼

this
short
,
is
RE

【在 r***l 的大作中提到】

: 我个人一直比较反对short,刚才回个帖打的英文，大家凑合看吧
: the max loss of long is 100% while short is unlimited. People may argue this
: doesn't apply for most of big stocks. That is true. but the most I am
: concerned about shorting is mind peace. It will be very hard to keep mind
: peaceful if everybody else is making money but you are losing money by
: shorting....
: Unless I see an obviously overvalued stock which I understand, I won't short
: . Last time I short was 1.5 years ago shorting yoku and dang. At that time,
: yoku was crazy overvalued, 2-3 times more expensive than ntes/sohu. That is
: pretty safe money.

t*s2013-01-24 08:01

23 楼

这要是搁在2008年，要遭人扁的。

this
short
,
is

【在 r***l 的大作中提到】

: 我个人一直比较反对short,刚才回个帖打的英文，大家凑合看吧
: the max loss of long is 100% while short is unlimited. People may argue this
: doesn't apply for most of big stocks. That is true. but the most I am
: concerned about shorting is mind peace. It will be very hard to keep mind
: peaceful if everybody else is making money but you are losing money by
: shorting....
: Unless I see an obviously overvalued stock which I understand, I won't short
: . Last time I short was 1.5 years ago shorting yoku and dang. At that time,
: yoku was crazy overvalued, 2-3 times more expensive than ntes/sohu. That is
: pretty safe money.

c*o2013-01-24 08:01

24 楼

thank all