天然气几年内不会过$6的原因。 - 未名空间MITBBS历史存档

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天然气几年内不会过$6的原因。

天然气几年内不会过$6的原因。# Stock

a*12013-04-18 07:04

1 楼

Natural gas will keep in going up, but there is no way going more than $6 in
short period of time. The reason is because we are in the middle of huge
natural gas boom.
The average cost of drilling for natural gas is between $4-$7, depend upon
where you gas well is. When the price dropped below $2 H1 2012, everybody is
losing money and the investment was shifted to oil drilling, thus supply is
in shortage and that is why we see the price going up later in the past
year.
Price will keep going up because at current rate of $4.3, most of the
company still won't invest in drilling dry gas, thus supply is still tight.
Once price hits close to $6, everybody will jump to the wagon and supply is
very easy to overwhelm.
Remember that was how the price was killed in the first place. Back in 2007-
2008, NG was around $12 and within short 5 year period, we saw $1.92 last
year.

x*n2013-04-18 07:04

2 楼

2012年全年NG有多少天超过4？
搞天然气的有亏钱吗？

a*12013-04-18 07:04

3 楼

You are correct that for the whole 2012, NG was below $4. The answer to your
question is because they are all making money on oil.
Oil well usually have a mixture of oil, gas and LNG. Most of the natural gas
today is the by-product of oil and LNG well. And most of the dry gas wells
producing today were drilled before 2012, so the capex was already spent
before 2012. More than 90% of the energy companies capital spending in 2013
is in oil well drilling, not natural gas.
That is why you are seeing the production of natural gas keep going down, as
those producing wells is drained. In the meantime, there is still NG on the
market, as long as oil is still coming out of the wll.
For any given energy company, all you need is 25% oil and 75% to make money
in 2012. 25% of oil is more than enough to compensate for the money loss in
gas.
Since you invest heavily in APA, I assume you would know basic fundamental
of NG and oil.

【在 x*********n 的大作中提到】

: 2012年全年NG有多少天超过4？
: 搞天然气的有亏钱吗？

w*j2013-04-18 07:04

4 楼

If you read the reports of NG producers, you will know they do not sell NG
at cash price or near-feature prices. When NG cash price was below 2 last
year, most producers sold their NG at price around $5.
I guess You know the hedge policy of APA

【在 x*********n 的大作中提到】

: 2012年全年NG有多少天超过4？
: 搞天然气的有亏钱吗？

x*n2013-04-18 07:04

5 楼

20% APA's profit is coming from NG. They even hedge oil, why not NG

NG

【在 w*j 的大作中提到】

: If you read the reports of NG producers, you will know they do not sell NG
: at cash price or near-feature prices. When NG cash price was below 2 last
: year, most producers sold their NG at price around $5.
: I guess You know the hedge policy of APA

x*n2013-04-18 07:04

6 楼

They do hedge.2012 Q3, APA didn't realize their NG,that's why the ER was so
bad.
Instead of digging natural gas, I reviewed management board.
Guess the average age of APA's board?
BTW, natural gas never been liquid, unless you liquified.

your
gas
wells
2013
as
the

【在 a*****1 的大作中提到】

: You are correct that for the whole 2012, NG was below $4. The answer to your
: question is because they are all making money on oil.
: Oil well usually have a mixture of oil, gas and LNG. Most of the natural gas
: today is the by-product of oil and LNG well. And most of the dry gas wells
: producing today were drilled before 2012, so the capex was already spent
: before 2012. More than 90% of the energy companies capital spending in 2013
: is in oil well drilling, not natural gas.
: That is why you are seeing the production of natural gas keep going down, as
: those producing wells is drained. In the meantime, there is still NG on the
: market, as long as oil is still coming out of the wll.

x*n2013-04-18 07:04

7 楼

I hate to put any views on public board about this stock, since you were
here, I talk a little bit more.
How to hedge, how to transition, how to bid, how to produce,
they are not my job. I am working as IT professional,but even in my industry
, there are so much stuff I don't know.
I reviewed the board team,I trust them, I like the way they are doing,
investing, transition, build, bid, export.
Then I bought shares, that's it.
No one can predict future,but I knew smart people always smart.

a*12013-04-18 07:04

8 楼

Since you are into this, I guess you would know the fundamental. Things like
APA oil is tracking more Brent price rather than NYME, so last year they
had about $15-$20 advantage.
Now, with that advantage being diminished into the next year or so, how
their operation is going to be? Also APA is more in oil than NG, so what is
their hedging this year, can they take advantage of NG going up? Hedging
might be good for 2012, not 2013. If their NG is hedge at below $4 and Brent
is now dropped significantly, what Q2 is going to look like? How about
geopolitical risk, given significant of rev is coming from Africa. In the
past several years, oil price has jumped significantly, did APA rev and
bottom line goes up? What if oil price drop again to $60, what bottomline is
going to look like?
BTW, the LNG is not compressed from NG.

industry

【在 x*********n 的大作中提到】

: I hate to put any views on public board about this stock, since you were
: here, I talk a little bit more.
: How to hedge, how to transition, how to bid, how to produce,
: they are not my job. I am working as IT professional,but even in my industry
: , there are so much stuff I don't know.
: I reviewed the board team,I trust them, I like the way they are doing,
: investing, transition, build, bid, export.
: Then I bought shares, that's it.
: No one can predict future,but I knew smart people always smart.

x*n2013-04-18 07:04

9 楼

49% NG and 51% oil
both price matters, it is big company cross the whole world.
To choose hedge or not, it is not my job and I don't care.
For NG, Licantly NG is simply liquified NG, nothing fancy, although price is
different and store cost is significantly lower.

like
is
Brent

【在 a*****1 的大作中提到】

: Since you are into this, I guess you would know the fundamental. Things like
: APA oil is tracking more Brent price rather than NYME, so last year they
: had about $15-$20 advantage.
: Now, with that advantage being diminished into the next year or so, how
: their operation is going to be? Also APA is more in oil than NG, so what is
: their hedging this year, can they take advantage of NG going up? Hedging
: might be good for 2012, not 2013. If their NG is hedge at below $4 and Brent
: is now dropped significantly, what Q2 is going to look like? How about
: geopolitical risk, given significant of rev is coming from Africa. In the
: past several years, oil price has jumped significantly, did APA rev and

u*e2013-04-18 07:04

10 楼

不错的分析
去年天然气跌到低谷是供需不平衡:供大于求.
现在需求越来越大,供给变化不大,价格应该还能继续上行一段时间.

in
is
is
.

【在 a*****1 的大作中提到】

: Natural gas will keep in going up, but there is no way going more than $6 in
: short period of time. The reason is because we are in the middle of huge
: natural gas boom.
: The average cost of drilling for natural gas is between $4-$7, depend upon
: where you gas well is. When the price dropped below $2 H1 2012, everybody is
: losing money and the investment was shifted to oil drilling, thus supply is
: in shortage and that is why we see the price going up later in the past
: year.
: Price will keep going up because at current rate of $4.3, most of the
: company still won't invest in drilling dry gas, thus supply is still tight.

a*o2013-04-18 07:04

11 楼

The only reason was Shale gas. But the price will be back soon.

in
is
is
.

【在 a*****1 的大作中提到】

s*n2013-04-18 07:04

12 楼

lz应该是业内人士，说了点石油天然气的基本道理，但也不尽然，知道apa是的油有部
分是根据brent定价的，说明对apa非常了解了，但是说的也有不少错误，lng和ngl完全
不是一回事，
xxr就不提了，对石油天然气完全不懂也敢买apa,真是付了u了
别的懒得说了，70块的apa肯定under value了，胆大的现在可以买入，一年内必有20%
回报，胆小的可以再等等，或者逐步建仓，这是个好公司

like
is
Brent

【在 a*****1 的大作中提到】