BBRY （转载）的一个很好的分析# Stock
U*f
1 楼
The company is very solid, with a unique product, catering to a very niche
market and the only thing wrong is the perception the market has about the
stock. And like Groupon, perception can change at the blink of an eye, for
reasons that I cannot even begin to guess today.
One think is sure. BlackBerry is a cheap stock today any way you slice it
and dice it. The stock is trading at less than book value and at 2/3 of its
cash position with no debt. There are not that many companies out there you
can find with such a cash pile to market cap. Remember when Apple (AAPL),
for no apparent reason was also trading at two-thirds of its cash?
In addition, the company has just rolled out a new operating system and a
new line of devices. Maybe the market didn't get the numbers it was hoping
for, but this is not a company that will go out business. Like Groupon, I
think eventually, the market will stop voting on BlackBerry and start
weighing it. And like Groupon, if and when the perception of the market
changes, BlackBerry can also climb 200% from current prices, without
necessarily becoming a better company or even a profitable company.
But that's where the opportunity is in the long term. Due to this negative
perception, the stock is priced where it is today. And if my thesis is
correct and perception changes in the future, then long term this stock will
appreciate. And like Groupon today, that has a target price of 300% from
its lows, BlackBerry might also have a target price 400% from current levels
, if and when the stock reaches $30 and everyone all of a sudden is
extremely bullish, even if nothing has really changed about the company.
market and the only thing wrong is the perception the market has about the
stock. And like Groupon, perception can change at the blink of an eye, for
reasons that I cannot even begin to guess today.
One think is sure. BlackBerry is a cheap stock today any way you slice it
and dice it. The stock is trading at less than book value and at 2/3 of its
cash position with no debt. There are not that many companies out there you
can find with such a cash pile to market cap. Remember when Apple (AAPL),
for no apparent reason was also trading at two-thirds of its cash?
In addition, the company has just rolled out a new operating system and a
new line of devices. Maybe the market didn't get the numbers it was hoping
for, but this is not a company that will go out business. Like Groupon, I
think eventually, the market will stop voting on BlackBerry and start
weighing it. And like Groupon, if and when the perception of the market
changes, BlackBerry can also climb 200% from current prices, without
necessarily becoming a better company or even a profitable company.
But that's where the opportunity is in the long term. Due to this negative
perception, the stock is priced where it is today. And if my thesis is
correct and perception changes in the future, then long term this stock will
appreciate. And like Groupon today, that has a target price of 300% from
its lows, BlackBerry might also have a target price 400% from current levels
, if and when the stock reaches $30 and everyone all of a sudden is
extremely bullish, even if nothing has really changed about the company.
