拜山帖# Stock
g*s
1 楼
潜水很多年了。一直奇怪这个版上很少做FA的。或者也许有，但是和我一样潜水。
贴个special situation idea，希望能炸出几个同行。goes without saying that
this is not a recommendation. do your own DD.
Crown Media (CRWN) is an orphan stock with no sell-side coverage. The asset
here is Hallmark Channel, one of the remaining stand-alone cable channels
with decent ratings. The company had steady growth and generated $135M
EBITDA last year despite low affiliate fees given its independent status.
Stock is reasonably cheap on its own and clearly worth a lot more to a media
conglomerate which can eliminate G&A and get better affiliate fees in a
bundle package.
The story got more interesting and actionable after the controlling family (
with 90% stake) signaled in a 13D filing last month that they are looking to
monetize the asset (ie. sell the company). Essentially I see two scenarios
for minority shareholders. 1) The family buys out minority shareholders at $
3-3.5 (12-14x EBITDA using their own valuation metric from 3 years ago). 2)
The entire company gets sold in early 2014, probably for $3.50-4 (still
lower than recent comparable transactions). Minority shareholders are
entitled to an extra 50c premium in case of takeover per the recap agreement
in '09, which will expire at end of 2013, so any acquirer may wait till
early '14. Either way there is decent upside from here, independent of the
general market. Downside should be limited given $80m normalized FCF. Risk
is somehow the family screws minority shareholders in a low-ball short-form
merger, but that appears very unlikely given their prior record and
potential gains on 10% of shares are too low for the family to risk the deal
falling through from lawsuits -- 50c premium would be just $20m, or one
quarter of FCF.
贴个special situation idea，希望能炸出几个同行。goes without saying that
this is not a recommendation. do your own DD.
Crown Media (CRWN) is an orphan stock with no sell-side coverage. The asset
here is Hallmark Channel, one of the remaining stand-alone cable channels
with decent ratings. The company had steady growth and generated $135M
EBITDA last year despite low affiliate fees given its independent status.
Stock is reasonably cheap on its own and clearly worth a lot more to a media
conglomerate which can eliminate G&A and get better affiliate fees in a
bundle package.
The story got more interesting and actionable after the controlling family (
with 90% stake) signaled in a 13D filing last month that they are looking to
monetize the asset (ie. sell the company). Essentially I see two scenarios
for minority shareholders. 1) The family buys out minority shareholders at $
3-3.5 (12-14x EBITDA using their own valuation metric from 3 years ago). 2)
The entire company gets sold in early 2014, probably for $3.50-4 (still
lower than recent comparable transactions). Minority shareholders are
entitled to an extra 50c premium in case of takeover per the recap agreement
in '09, which will expire at end of 2013, so any acquirer may wait till
early '14. Either way there is decent upside from here, independent of the
general market. Downside should be limited given $80m normalized FCF. Risk
is somehow the family screws minority shareholders in a low-ball short-form
merger, but that appears very unlikely given their prior record and
potential gains on 10% of shares are too low for the family to risk the deal
falling through from lawsuits -- 50c premium would be just $20m, or one
quarter of FCF.
