Biotech stock AGEN due diligence# Stock
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Current: $3.80
Target: $5 (in 2-4 months)
Agenus Inc., a biotechnology company, engages in developing and
commercializing technologies to treat cancers and infectious diseases. Its
technology portfolio consists of saponin adjuvant based technologies and
heat shock protein based technologies.
Bullish reasons.
1. 5 key catalysts near term during the second half of 2013 and into 2014
a>the Phase 3 data read-out at GSK MAGE-A3 program for melanoma.
b>the Phase 2 data read-out for HerpV for the treatment of genital
herpes.
c>long-term efficacy data for GSK RTS,S program for the prevention of
malaria.
d>an update to Prophage Series program for GBM. And finally,
e>the Phase 3 data read-out GSK MAGE-A3 program for non-small cell lung
cancer.
Very impressive phase 2 results on MAGE-A3 program: Results Seventy-five
patients were treated, with 36 eligible patients per arm. Both treatments
were well tolerated. In the AS15 arm, four objective responses were observed
(three complete responses and one partial response) versus one partial
response in the AS02B arm. In the AS15 and AS02B arms, the PFS rates after 6
months were 25% and 14%, respectively; and the median OS times were 33
months and 19.9 months, respectively, with a median observation period of 48
months. Antibodies against MAGE-A3, found in all patients, showed three-
fold higher titers in the AS15 arm. Therefore, the AS15 immunostimulant was
selected for combination with the MAGE-A3 protein in phase III trials.
2. Insider buys
Aug 1, 2013 ARMEN GARO H 3,437 Direct Acquisition at $3.84 per share
Jul 10, 2013 ARMEN GARO H 547,321 Direct Acquisition at $3.75 per share
Jul 1, 2013 ARMEN GARO H 3,515 Direct Acquisition at $3.75 per share.
3. Undervalue compareing to its pipeline potential
Agenus: Near-Term Drivers With A Market Opportunity Over $17 Billion:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1377581-agenus-near-term-drivers-with-a-market-opportunity-over-17-billion?source=yahoo
4. Retired its outstanding $39 million 8.0% senior secured convertible notes
due August 2014. It was the main reason why AGEN didn't rise. It is about
time for AGEN to gain momentum in share price as approaching the key
catalysts near term.
Risks:
1. likely dilution in later 2013
Cash and cash equivalents were $13.4M as of 06/30/2013. Cash burn in
last Q was about $20M. My bet is dilution should be at much higher price.
2. Technecally testing its day moving average 3.81 and below MA(200) $4.15
3. Negatiev outcomes of clinical trials
Disclosure: long AGEN. Do your own due diligence before investing.
Target: $5 (in 2-4 months)
Agenus Inc., a biotechnology company, engages in developing and
commercializing technologies to treat cancers and infectious diseases. Its
technology portfolio consists of saponin adjuvant based technologies and
heat shock protein based technologies.
Bullish reasons.
1. 5 key catalysts near term during the second half of 2013 and into 2014
a>the Phase 3 data read-out at GSK MAGE-A3 program for melanoma.
b>the Phase 2 data read-out for HerpV for the treatment of genital
herpes.
c>long-term efficacy data for GSK RTS,S program for the prevention of
malaria.
d>an update to Prophage Series program for GBM. And finally,
e>the Phase 3 data read-out GSK MAGE-A3 program for non-small cell lung
cancer.
Very impressive phase 2 results on MAGE-A3 program: Results Seventy-five
patients were treated, with 36 eligible patients per arm. Both treatments
were well tolerated. In the AS15 arm, four objective responses were observed
(three complete responses and one partial response) versus one partial
response in the AS02B arm. In the AS15 and AS02B arms, the PFS rates after 6
months were 25% and 14%, respectively; and the median OS times were 33
months and 19.9 months, respectively, with a median observation period of 48
months. Antibodies against MAGE-A3, found in all patients, showed three-
fold higher titers in the AS15 arm. Therefore, the AS15 immunostimulant was
selected for combination with the MAGE-A3 protein in phase III trials.
2. Insider buys
Aug 1, 2013 ARMEN GARO H 3,437 Direct Acquisition at $3.84 per share
Jul 10, 2013 ARMEN GARO H 547,321 Direct Acquisition at $3.75 per share
Jul 1, 2013 ARMEN GARO H 3,515 Direct Acquisition at $3.75 per share.
3. Undervalue compareing to its pipeline potential
Agenus: Near-Term Drivers With A Market Opportunity Over $17 Billion:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1377581-agenus-near-term-drivers-with-a-market-opportunity-over-17-billion?source=yahoo
4. Retired its outstanding $39 million 8.0% senior secured convertible notes
due August 2014. It was the main reason why AGEN didn't rise. It is about
time for AGEN to gain momentum in share price as approaching the key
catalysts near term.
Risks:
1. likely dilution in later 2013
Cash and cash equivalents were $13.4M as of 06/30/2013. Cash burn in
last Q was about $20M. My bet is dilution should be at much higher price.
2. Technecally testing its day moving average 3.81 and below MA(200) $4.15
3. Negatiev outcomes of clinical trials
Disclosure: long AGEN. Do your own due diligence before investing.
