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股市新高，大盘未来走势之我见

股市新高，大盘未来走势之我见# Stock

h*s2013-09-19 07:09

1 楼

谈一点个人对于大盘的看法，抛砖引玉吧。讨论这个比讨论垃圾股有意义。
个人感觉现在属于大盘的历史新高，从大众心理来说现在有观望，但是整个经济面还是
向好，Fed也积极的保驾护航，加上大量的量化宽松造成的美元的预期贬值，就这个意
义上来讲，现在而言大多数股票还是便宜。而大众的心理也会随着股价变动而变动，
15000点你显高，到了160000你就怕赶不上17000了，呵呵。
07，08年主要的问题出在金融行业上面，其实其他各行各业受到的冲击也仅限于金融层
面，对于营收能力的冲击并不大。甚至由于员工实际工资的调低（扣除通货膨胀因素）
，工作效率的提高（高失业率下的GDP增长），加上宽松且近似免费的贷款，目前的企
业竞争力比之前更高。当然房地产相关的行业受损要严重一些，不过随着房价回到高点
，这方面也渐渐补回。
现在对于银行的监管力度是前所未有的，再次发生大面积金融风暴不太可能。花街对于
QE的缩减也是讨论已久，真的那一天减了的话，也是在预料之中，不会崩盘。
都是一家之言，也有可能有一个未知的大炸弹在明天引爆，然后股市狂泻10000点，呵
呵。大家说说呗。
总之我个人感觉，操作还是跟着大盘走吧。做好抛盘和熊市的准备，不过整体经济看好
的情况下，可能牛市的机会还是比较大。
最后与青蛙蝌蚪共勉：永远不要和大盘争辩，更不要跟大盘作对，不管你觉得自己有多
么正确。

f*x2013-09-19 07:09

2 楼

谢大牛

ak2013-09-19 07:09

3 楼

分析的好！

L*L2013-09-19 07:09

4 楼

'A bit of a bubble' in stocks: Berkshire director
CNBC.com 09/19/13 9:02 AM ET
By: Matthew J. Belvedere

PLAY VIDEO Meryl Witmer, Eagle Capital Partners, reveals what she's learned
from Wall Street legends. They all seem to have one thing in common, she
says, they're "confident but humble" and are willing to change their minds.
The stock market "doesn't look so cheap," Berkshire Hathaway board member
Meryl Witmer told CNBC on Thursday.
"The whole thing about keeping interest rates low, people put money into
stocks because they want the yield, or they're gambling, or they're getting
nothing on their cash. That really adds to the speculative environment. A
bit of a bubble. And at some point you have to pay the piper," said Witmer,
who is also general partner at Eagle Capital and part of the Barron's
Roundtable.
In a "Squawk Box" interview, she said she doesn't spend a lot of time trying
figure out what the Federal Reserve is going to do. But the central bank's
decision not to start tapering its $85-billion-a-month bond-buying program
did affect some of her investment choices.
"I was a little disappointed because a few stocks were hovering around where
I'd like to buy them," she admitted. "I was hoping some negative news would
come out and I would get to add a position or two." The Fed's inaction
boosted stocks to record highs Wednesday.
As value investors, "our style is really bottoms up. So we're looking at
individual companies and try to find a cheap one, find something that's
misperceived," said Witmer, who joined the board of Warren Buffett's
Berkshire this spring.
"I think one area is refining, and in particular Phillips 66, which is a
position of ours," she said.
Besides refining, Phillips 66 also has a chemical business that's a "great
niche, very high return on capital," and a "midstream business that moves
oil and gas around," she said.
Witmer said she bought shares of Phillips 66 when it was spun out of Conoco
Phillips in the spring of 2012. "We've [also] bought some since, even at
around these current prices."
Eagle Capital returned 8.78 percent in the June quarter, according to hedge
fund track Whale Wisdom. The investment firm had a 28.7 percent performance
over the past four quarters.
Berkshire is Eagle Capital's top holding, followed by Oracle and Microsoft,
according to its latest filings.
—By CNBC's Matthew J. Belvedere. Follow him on Twitter @Matt_SquawkCNBC.

★ 发自iPhone App: ChineseWeb 7.7

【在 h****s 的大作中提到】

: 谈一点个人对于大盘的看法，抛砖引玉吧。讨论这个比讨论垃圾股有意义。
: 个人感觉现在属于大盘的历史新高，从大众心理来说现在有观望，但是整个经济面还是
: 向好，Fed也积极的保驾护航，加上大量的量化宽松造成的美元的预期贬值，就这个意
: 义上来讲，现在而言大多数股票还是便宜。而大众的心理也会随着股价变动而变动，
: 15000点你显高，到了160000你就怕赶不上17000了，呵呵。
: 07，08年主要的问题出在金融行业上面，其实其他各行各业受到的冲击也仅限于金融层
: 面，对于营收能力的冲击并不大。甚至由于员工实际工资的调低（扣除通货膨胀因素）
: ，工作效率的提高（高失业率下的GDP增长），加上宽松且近似免费的贷款，目前的企
: 业竞争力比之前更高。当然房地产相关的行业受损要严重一些，不过随着房价回到高点
: ，这方面也渐渐补回。

L*L2013-09-19 07:09

5 楼

读读这个news，你觉得文中的lady在想什么

learned
★ 发自iPhone App: ChineseWeb 7.7

【在 L**L 的大作中提到】

: 'A bit of a bubble' in stocks: Berkshire director
: CNBC.com 09/19/13 9:02 AM ET
: By: Matthew J. Belvedere
:
: PLAY VIDEO Meryl Witmer, Eagle Capital Partners, reveals what she's learned
: from Wall Street legends. They all seem to have one thing in common, she
: says, they're "confident but humble" and are willing to change their minds.
: The stock market "doesn't look so cheap," Berkshire Hathaway board member
: Meryl Witmer told CNBC on Thursday.
: "The whole thing about keeping interest rates low, people put money into