REIT有二种营利模式 - 未名空间MITBBS历史存档

REIT有二种营利模式# Stock

m*i2013-11-18 08:11

1 楼

第一种，买100万的appartment at 6.5%，再从银行借一个7年的70 万loan at 4%, 30
万的 equity could yield 12%,
利率上涨，没有影响, 实际上风险很小。
第2种, 买100万 mortgage bond at 4%, 再从银行借Short term loan at 3%,
leverage 10 times its equity.
REIT is very complicated. The 2nd type is very risky, should avoid. The
First type is actually not bad compare with the current stock market. So do
your own home work before investing in the REIT.
Of course, there is a risk that they will not be able to refinance the loan
at 4% after 7 years. But we don't need to worry about that right now.

R*o2013-11-18 08:11

2 楼

现在租房子已经不赚了
这两年apartment business 亏损并购很严重，没你想的那么赚
100w放股市，一年至少能赚30w

30
do
loan

【在 m*****i 的大作中提到】

: 第一种，买100万的appartment at 6.5%，再从银行借一个7年的70 万loan at 4%, 30
: 万的 equity could yield 12%,
: 利率上涨，没有影响, 实际上风险很小。
: 第2种, 买100万 mortgage bond at 4%, 再从银行借Short term loan at 3%,
: leverage 10 times its equity.
: REIT is very complicated. The 2nd type is very risky, should avoid. The
: First type is actually not bad compare with the current stock market. So do
: your own home work before investing in the REIT.
: Of course, there is a risk that they will not be able to refinance the loan
: at 4% after 7 years. But we don't need to worry about that right now.

B*r2013-11-18 08:11

3 楼

经过几年大牛市，股市的风险大家都忘了。

【在 R******o 的大作中提到】

: 现在租房子已经不赚了
: 这两年apartment business 亏损并购很严重，没你想的那么赚
: 100w放股市，一年至少能赚30w
:
: 30
: do
: loan

l*r2013-11-18 08:11

4 楼

想跟上大牛的思路，但很有些confusion，请大牛指教。
1。你提到的“买100万的appartment at 6.5%”，这个6.5%指的是NOI吗？如果是的话，
那么指的是现金100万买下此appartment，net operating income是6万5。portforlio现
金回报率6.5%嫌稍微低了一点。
2。接下来的再向银行借7年的70万loan，指的是cash-out re-finance？不过这个比例的
cash-out refinance要1年之后才能做的吧？这意味着前面100万的现金要占用1年。前段
时间利率低，4%没问题。现在利率上涨了不少，4%不知道还行不行了。
3。那30万的equity所建立的cash on cash yield 应该没有12%。我简单算了一下，大约
是（6.5－4）/30=8.3%。如果利率上涨1%，则这个return变成6.7%。
这么看来，利率对reit影响还是不小的。

30
do
loan

【在 m*****i 的大作中提到】

: 第一种，买100万的appartment at 6.5%，再从银行借一个7年的70 万loan at 4%, 30
: 万的 equity could yield 12%,
: 利率上涨，没有影响, 实际上风险很小。
: 第2种, 买100万 mortgage bond at 4%, 再从银行借Short term loan at 3%,
: leverage 10 times its equity.
: REIT is very complicated. The 2nd type is very risky, should avoid. The
: First type is actually not bad compare with the current stock market. So do
: your own home work before investing in the REIT.
: Of course, there is a risk that they will not be able to refinance the loan
: at 4% after 7 years. But we don't need to worry about that right now.

R*o2013-11-18 08:11

5 楼

房市风险比股市大多了,而且真的熊市来了,想跑都没机会

【在 B**********r 的大作中提到】

: 经过几年大牛市，股市的风险大家都忘了。

l*r2013-11-18 08:11

6 楼

主要是real estate的liquidation不好。不过从另一方面来说，如果是出租和管理，则
风险相对较小。

【在 R******o 的大作中提到】

: 房市风险比股市大多了,而且真的熊市来了,想跑都没机会

m*i2013-11-18 08:11

7 楼

NLY, AGNC 属于第二类。虽然分红很高，但利率上去一点就完了！1

l*r2013-11-18 08:11

8 楼

第一类也还是受利率影响的，不过比第二类小。大牛选的那3个reit，都是第一类么？

【在 m*****i 的大作中提到】

: NLY, AGNC 属于第二类。虽然分红很高，但利率上去一点就完了！1

m*i2013-11-18 08:11

9 楼

当然有影响,主要是新的business. 你的70万就借了到百分之4，可能百分之五。剩下30
万只有10％回报！这样会影响将来的分红！丨

【在 l******r 的大作中提到】

: 第一类也还是受利率影响的，不过比第二类小。大牛选的那3个reit，都是第一类么？

m*i2013-11-18 08:11

10 楼

70x0.04＝2.8
6.5一2.8＝3.7
3.7／30＝12.3％

话，
portforlio现
例的
前段
大约

【在 l******r 的大作中提到】

: 想跟上大牛的思路，但很有些confusion，请大牛指教。
: 1。你提到的“买100万的appartment at 6.5%”，这个6.5%指的是NOI吗？如果是的话，
: 那么指的是现金100万买下此appartment，net operating income是6万5。portforlio现
: 金回报率6.5%嫌稍微低了一点。
: 2。接下来的再向银行借7年的70万loan，指的是cash-out re-finance？不过这个比例的
: cash-out refinance要1年之后才能做的吧？这意味着前面100万的现金要占用1年。前段
: 时间利率低，4%没问题。现在利率上涨了不少，4%不知道还行不行了。
: 3。那30万的equity所建立的cash on cash yield 应该没有12%。我简单算了一下，大约
: 是（6.5－4）/30=8.3%。如果利率上涨1%，则这个return变成6.7%。
: 这么看来，利率对reit影响还是不小的。

l*r2013-11-18 08:11

11 楼

principle+interest，不只2.8。我算过了，大约4。所以是（6.5－4）/30 = 8.3%.

【在 m*****i 的大作中提到】

: 70x0.04＝2.8
: 6.5一2.8＝3.7
: 3.7／30＝12.3％
:
: 话，
: portforlio现
: 例的
: 前段
: 大约

m*i2013-11-18 08:11

12 楼

我懂你的意思但祘return 时要去掉principal payment. 另外，他们现在借的基本都是
term loan interest only.

【在 l******r 的大作中提到】

: principle+interest，不只2.8。我算过了，大约4。所以是（6.5－4）/30 = 8.3%.

d*d2013-11-18 08:11

13 楼

acre是属于哪一类啊？

【在 m*****i 的大作中提到】

: NLY, AGNC 属于第二类。虽然分红很高，但利率上去一点就完了！1

l*r2013-11-18 08:11

14 楼

谢谢名菜指教。我还以为经过这次的次贷危机，interest only已经很难贷了呢。非常感
谢！

【在 m*****i 的大作中提到】

: 我懂你的意思但祘return 时要去掉principal payment. 另外，他们现在借的基本都是
: term loan interest only.

B*02013-11-18 08:11

15 楼

不知道大侠对IGR 可有曾研究?

c*y2013-11-18 08:11

16 楼

学习了。终于明白REIT的盈利模式了。

30
do
loan

【在 m*****i 的大作中提到】

: 第一种，买100万的appartment at 6.5%，再从银行借一个7年的70 万loan at 4%, 30
: 万的 equity could yield 12%,
: 利率上涨，没有影响, 实际上风险很小。
: 第2种, 买100万 mortgage bond at 4%, 再从银行借Short term loan at 3%,
: leverage 10 times its equity.
: REIT is very complicated. The 2nd type is very risky, should avoid. The
: First type is actually not bad compare with the current stock market. So do
: your own home work before investing in the REIT.
: Of course, there is a risk that they will not be able to refinance the loan
: at 4% after 7 years. But we don't need to worry about that right now.

h*72013-11-18 08:11

17 楼

敏才大牛的三个REIT都是type I吗？

30
do
loan

【在 m*****i 的大作中提到】

: 第一种，买100万的appartment at 6.5%，再从银行借一个7年的70 万loan at 4%, 30
: 万的 equity could yield 12%,
: 利率上涨，没有影响, 实际上风险很小。
: 第2种, 买100万 mortgage bond at 4%, 再从银行借Short term loan at 3%,
: leverage 10 times its equity.
: REIT is very complicated. The 2nd type is very risky, should avoid. The
: First type is actually not bad compare with the current stock market. So do
: your own home work before investing in the REIT.
: Of course, there is a risk that they will not be able to refinance the loan
: at 4% after 7 years. But we don't need to worry about that right now.

V*n2013-11-18 08:11

18 楼

minncai daniu, the volatility of occupancy rate needs to be considered in
type I

30
do
loan

【在 m*****i 的大作中提到】

: 第一种，买100万的appartment at 6.5%，再从银行借一个7年的70 万loan at 4%, 30
: 万的 equity could yield 12%,
: 利率上涨，没有影响, 实际上风险很小。
: 第2种, 买100万 mortgage bond at 4%, 再从银行借Short term loan at 3%,
: leverage 10 times its equity.
: REIT is very complicated. The 2nd type is very risky, should avoid. The
: First type is actually not bad compare with the current stock market. So do
: your own home work before investing in the REIT.
: Of course, there is a risk that they will not be able to refinance the loan
: at 4% after 7 years. But we don't need to worry about that right now.

m*i2013-11-18 08:11

19 楼

Don't know, you have to spend some times to read and understand their
business modal. I can not follow too many stocks.

【在 d*****d 的大作中提到】

: acre是属于哪一类啊？

o*o2013-11-18 08:11

20 楼

When rates back up, you may not be able to adjust rent as you want, and that
eats into profit margin quickly.
when the spread between 12% and market rates shrinks, and portfolio is
expected to refi into a higher mortgage, the stock value may drop a lot.

30

【在 m*****i 的大作中提到】

: 第一种，买100万的appartment at 6.5%，再从银行借一个7年的70 万loan at 4%, 30
: 万的 equity could yield 12%,
: 利率上涨，没有影响, 实际上风险很小。
: 第2种, 买100万 mortgage bond at 4%, 再从银行借Short term loan at 3%,
: leverage 10 times its equity.
: REIT is very complicated. The 2nd type is very risky, should avoid. The
: First type is actually not bad compare with the current stock market. So do
: your own home work before investing in the REIT.
: Of course, there is a risk that they will not be able to refinance the loan
: at 4% after 7 years. But we don't need to worry about that right now.

c*e2013-11-18 08:11

21 楼

REIT 的 ER 最难读，读不懂，就是为了让你晕！

30
do
loan

【在 m*****i 的大作中提到】

: 第一种，买100万的appartment at 6.5%，再从银行借一个7年的70 万loan at 4%, 30
: 万的 equity could yield 12%,
: 利率上涨，没有影响, 实际上风险很小。
: 第2种, 买100万 mortgage bond at 4%, 再从银行借Short term loan at 3%,
: leverage 10 times its equity.
: REIT is very complicated. The 2nd type is very risky, should avoid. The
: First type is actually not bad compare with the current stock market. So do
: your own home work before investing in the REIT.
: Of course, there is a risk that they will not be able to refinance the loan
: at 4% after 7 years. But we don't need to worry about that right now.

k*82013-11-18 08:11

22 楼

谢谢明达牛！
那如果很不幸，地产贬值肿么办？比如说不小心投资的城市底特律化了

【在 m*****i 的大作中提到】

: 70x0.04＝2.8
: 6.5一2.8＝3.7
: 3.7／30＝12.3％
:
: 话，
: portforlio现
: 例的
: 前段
: 大约

T*s2013-11-18 08:11

23 楼

"NLY, AGNC 属于第二类。虽然分红很高，但利率上去一点就完了！1"
Yellen said interest rate will stay low for the next 3 year, correct?

m*i2013-11-18 08:11

24 楼

You have a valid point as in my note. That is the problem after the loan
term expired.
On the other hand, the profit margin will not change within the 7 years.
That providers the stable cash flow during this 7 years, also in the
apartment business the rent should also go up during this time.

that

【在 o**o 的大作中提到】

: When rates back up, you may not be able to adjust rent as you want, and that
: eats into profit margin quickly.
: when the spread between 12% and market rates shrinks, and portfolio is
: expected to refi into a higher mortgage, the stock value may drop a lot.
:
: 30

m*i2013-11-18 08:11

25 楼

This is no different then you pick a wrong stock:).

【在 k********8 的大作中提到】

: 谢谢明达牛！
: 那如果很不幸，地产贬值肿么办？比如说不小心投资的城市底特律化了

k*82013-11-18 08:11

26 楼

thx!
6.5%是不是比较保守的估计？这是从哪儿看来的？
谢谢！

【在 m*****i 的大作中提到】

: This is no different then you pick a wrong stock:).

m*i2013-11-18 08:11

27 楼

NCT just bought 1 billion senior housing from its parent company.
It expects to yield 6.5%, and will get a loan. They are targeting 17% yield
on their equity invested in this deal.
I already made enough on NCT:), you should listen to me on this one. I made
over 130% just a little bit over a year(including dividend).
This is why NCT is holding pretty well after a big secondary offering.

【在 k********8 的大作中提到】

: thx!
: 6.5%是不是比较保守的估计？这是从哪儿看来的？
: 谢谢！

m*i2013-11-18 08:11

28 楼

Now we are talking.

【在 m*****i 的大作中提到】

: NLY, AGNC 属于第二类。虽然分红很高，但利率上去一点就完了！1

i*n2013-11-18 08:11

29 楼

You are really the best minncai.
Thanks for sharing.

★ 发自iPhone App: ChineseWeb 8.1

【在 m*****i 的大作中提到】

: Now we are talking.

m*a2013-11-18 08:11

30 楼

mincai,第一类也是有风险的。那就是地产下跌的风险。
这个周期长，10-20年，1998一次比较小， 2007年那次就很严重。
地产下跌， loan到期就没有办法refinance，同时bleach 了loan term。
银行要跟多collateral，非常多的公司就是这样破产的。
风险一点也不比mREIT低。不要现在commerical, resedentRETI好就忘了风险。

c*y2013-11-18 08:11

31 楼

it's far more complicated than you think.
first one is like a carry trade, with 2-4X leverage. Some ppl disagrees.
key is to buy(hard to find now) distressed REO/foreclosure inventory
from banks.
it's a volume business with high operational cost.
carry(rent - pmt) varies city by city. For example, in NYC metro area,
it's not easy to find possible carry now. If you buy apt units, there
is extra cost.
I asked lots of top REIT PMs, very few favored this idea. And some of
them performed very bad. For example, SBY, managed by top MBS fund PR. http://www.silverbayrealtytrustcorp.com/
http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=SBY&ty=c&ta=0&p=w
Blackstone, Ellington, maybe carlyle group used to be very active in
this business. But there were headlines about them becoming net seller.
In my understanding, second type reit ain't riskier than the first one.

30
do
loan

【在 m*****i 的大作中提到】

: 第一种，买100万的appartment at 6.5%，再从银行借一个7年的70 万loan at 4%, 30
: 万的 equity could yield 12%,
: 利率上涨，没有影响, 实际上风险很小。
: 第2种, 买100万 mortgage bond at 4%, 再从银行借Short term loan at 3%,
: leverage 10 times its equity.
: REIT is very complicated. The 2nd type is very risky, should avoid. The
: First type is actually not bad compare with the current stock market. So do
: your own home work before investing in the REIT.
: Of course, there is a risk that they will not be able to refinance the loan
: at 4% after 7 years. But we don't need to worry about that right now.

m*a2013-11-18 08:11

32 楼

风险都是大大的，关键是要了解风险是啥。到时好跑路。
自己有rental的话，很容易了解这些commercial, residential, mortgage REIT。
赚钱的机会多的是。关键是要有cash。

【在 c*******y 的大作中提到】

: it's far more complicated than you think.
: first one is like a carry trade, with 2-4X leverage. Some ppl disagrees.
: key is to buy(hard to find now) distressed REO/foreclosure inventory
: from banks.
: it's a volume business with high operational cost.
: carry(rent - pmt) varies city by city. For example, in NYC metro area,
: it's not easy to find possible carry now. If you buy apt units, there
: is extra cost.
: I asked lots of top REIT PMs, very few favored this idea. And some of
: them performed very bad. For example, SBY, managed by top MBS fund PR. http://www.silverbayrealtytrustcorp.com/

p*o2013-11-18 08:11

33 楼

上个季度的很多reits为何净值没怎么跌，虽然利率升了不少？

【在 m*********a 的大作中提到】

: 风险都是大大的，关键是要了解风险是啥。到时好跑路。
: 自己有rental的话，很容易了解这些commercial, residential, mortgage REIT。
: 赚钱的机会多的是。关键是要有cash。

m*a2013-11-18 08:11

34 楼

那是因为property value涨了。同时loan default 少了。
导致房地产的fair market value上升。
地产有很多影响因素。利率也要分短期，和长期利率。
很多公司现在业绩好，是因为短期利率低。
但因为欠了一大笔债，只要银根收缩，这些公司至少业绩变得极差，破产是分分钟的事。
像JCP现在还能搞到钱，在差一点的市场，谁会脑残给他融资。早就chapter 11了事了。

【在 p********o 的大作中提到】

: 上个季度的很多reits为何净值没怎么跌，虽然利率升了不少？