A case for NFLX: $500 is not a dream - 未名空间MITBBS历史存档

A case for NFLX: $500 is not a dream# Stock

r*m2014-01-28 08:01

1 楼

I just presented a case against NFLX, now a case for it.
NFLX will soon have 50M subscribers globally, and the number could reach 60M
in the not so distant future. NFLX has 60M shares out standing. So, pretty
soon, each NFLX share is backed by one subscriber.
Right now, NFLX charges $7.99 a month, and the EPS is around $2 per year. It
's expected that NFLX will increase the monthly fee to $9.99, and hopefully
not losing a significant number of costumers for doing so. This extra $2 per
month could translate into pure profit for NFLX, assuming NFLX could
control the cost of the service at the current level. Therefore, NFLX will
potentially increase its EPS to $26 per year. Given a PE of 20, that's $520
a share.

r*32014-01-28 08:01

2 楼

喵的。。。我觉得已经开始泡泡了

p*e2014-01-28 08:01

3 楼

nah, i dont look at individual stock, but my gut feeling on the chart is
that this probably the last short squeeze. probably crashing real soon with
broad mkt

r*m2014-01-28 08:01

4 楼

I always like you and support you, brother!

with

【在 p******e 的大作中提到】

: nah, i dont look at individual stock, but my gut feeling on the chart is
: that this probably the last short squeeze. probably crashing real soon with
: broad mkt

p*e2014-01-28 08:01

5 楼

lol, 难兄难弟

【在 r*m 的大作中提到】

: I always like you and support you, brother!
:
: with

j*l2014-01-28 08:01

6 楼

Waste Management (WM) has much better chances to make money than NFLX.

60M
pretty
It
hopefully
per
520

【在 r*m 的大作中提到】

: I just presented a case against NFLX, now a case for it.
: NFLX will soon have 50M subscribers globally, and the number could reach 60M
: in the not so distant future. NFLX has 60M shares out standing. So, pretty
: soon, each NFLX share is backed by one subscriber.
: Right now, NFLX charges $7.99 a month, and the EPS is around $2 per year. It
: 's expected that NFLX will increase the monthly fee to $9.99, and hopefully
: not losing a significant number of costumers for doing so. This extra $2 per
: month could translate into pure profit for NFLX, assuming NFLX could
: control the cost of the service at the current level. Therefore, NFLX will
: potentially increase its EPS to $26 per year. Given a PE of 20, that's $520

p*o2014-01-28 08:01

7 楼

其实也蛮简单的，吸筹不会在高位这个涨法，就是没人买了，变着法逼空头cover。现
在是戏演得逼真的超出了大家想象。但是股价高，option贵，还真是想不出什么相对风
险小回报高的办法。

60M
pretty
It
hopefully
per
520

【在 r*m 的大作中提到】

: I just presented a case against NFLX, now a case for it.
: NFLX will soon have 50M subscribers globally, and the number could reach 60M
: in the not so distant future. NFLX has 60M shares out standing. So, pretty
: soon, each NFLX share is backed by one subscriber.
: Right now, NFLX charges $7.99 a month, and the EPS is around $2 per year. It
: 's expected that NFLX will increase the monthly fee to $9.99, and hopefully
: not losing a significant number of costumers for doing so. This extra $2 per
: month could translate into pure profit for NFLX, assuming NFLX could
: control the cost of the service at the current level. Therefore, NFLX will
: potentially increase its EPS to $26 per year. Given a PE of 20, that's $520

w*e2014-01-28 08:01

8 楼

我也看好它。我太爱它的SuperHD 和 3D.

60M
pretty
It
hopefully
per
520

【在 r*m 的大作中提到】

: I just presented a case against NFLX, now a case for it.
: NFLX will soon have 50M subscribers globally, and the number could reach 60M
: in the not so distant future. NFLX has 60M shares out standing. So, pretty
: soon, each NFLX share is backed by one subscriber.
: Right now, NFLX charges $7.99 a month, and the EPS is around $2 per year. It
: 's expected that NFLX will increase the monthly fee to $9.99, and hopefully
: not losing a significant number of costumers for doing so. This extra $2 per
: month could translate into pure profit for NFLX, assuming NFLX could
: control the cost of the service at the current level. Therefore, NFLX will
: potentially increase its EPS to $26 per year. Given a PE of 20, that's $520

r*m2014-01-28 08:01

9 楼

the $520 price target is based on near best case scenario.
therefore, short 500C would be a good way to play.

p*o2014-01-28 08:01

10 楼

今天amazon季报好像还是没有具体的prime人数。据说是超过20m，prime的目标人群和
nflx应该是有重合吧，那么nflx还有成长空间吗？

60M
pretty
It
hopefully
★ 发自iPhone App: ChineseWeb 8.2.2

【在 r*m 的大作中提到】

: I just presented a case against NFLX, now a case for it.
: NFLX will soon have 50M subscribers globally, and the number could reach 60M
: in the not so distant future. NFLX has 60M shares out standing. So, pretty
: soon, each NFLX share is backed by one subscriber.
: Right now, NFLX charges $7.99 a month, and the EPS is around $2 per year. It
: 's expected that NFLX will increase the monthly fee to $9.99, and hopefully
: not losing a significant number of costumers for doing so. This extra $2 per
: month could translate into pure profit for NFLX, assuming NFLX could
: control the cost of the service at the current level. Therefore, NFLX will
: potentially increase its EPS to $26 per year. Given a PE of 20, that's $520

r*m2014-01-28 08:01

11 楼

This is the "FA" base for my trade on NFLX

60M
pretty
It
hopefully
per
520

【在 r*m 的大作中提到】

: I just presented a case against NFLX, now a case for it.
: NFLX will soon have 50M subscribers globally, and the number could reach 60M
: in the not so distant future. NFLX has 60M shares out standing. So, pretty
: soon, each NFLX share is backed by one subscriber.
: Right now, NFLX charges $7.99 a month, and the EPS is around $2 per year. It
: 's expected that NFLX will increase the monthly fee to $9.99, and hopefully
: not losing a significant number of costumers for doing so. This extra $2 per
: month could translate into pure profit for NFLX, assuming NFLX could
: control the cost of the service at the current level. Therefore, NFLX will
: potentially increase its EPS to $26 per year. Given a PE of 20, that's $520