Only thing for sure is the pricing of AMZN is at its extreme in order to
maintain AMZN's sales, therefore AMZN will never be able to increase its
online profit margin to even low-end retailer WMT. AMZN is at its end of
increase spending shares of the average people.
AMZN online retail revenue is 60-70B dollar per year -- which almost 300-400
per person per year in U.S. (household of 4 spends 1-2K on AMZN already. I
think it is almost the top of the range an online store can achieve, and
will not be able to add significantly. Maybe there will be faster growth
than retailer, but it will level out to 2-3K per family.
Even AMZN reach double to 2-3K per family in 5 years, it will be disastrous
for AMZN stock. Wall street expect it grows much faster, and gave it nose
bleeding valuation. If it is put at WMT valuation of P/S, even AMZN doubles
its sales.
It is only $60-70B stock, let alone lower profit margin means. Adding its
cloud business worth of $30-40B, AMZN is at $100B without much missteps from
them (adding some cap by acquisition). Any hiccup could send it even lower.
I think AMZN will be around $200 in 5 years.