高盛每日晨报 3/27# Stock
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Americas : Market Intelligence – Morning Update
微信公众平台 USOPTIONS
by Chris Hussey
Published March 27, 2014
Stocks in Asia were decidedly mixed Thursday with the Nikkei gaining ground
while China stocks declined on little meaningful incremental news. Stocks in
India rose again and are now up 5% ytd - one of the best performing stock
markets in the world. Investors appear to be establishing bullish positions
ahead of India's once every 5 years national elections this year - the
subject of Tushar Poddar's "India: All eyes on elections" note this morning.
Notably, in our baseline scenario for India, we see GDP growth picking up
to 5.5% in FY15E from 4.6% in FY14E. And we also revise our INR forecasts to
build in some near-term strength due to improving balance of payments and
positive investor sentiment on the elections.
European equities are opening the day directionless amidst the news vacuum
as more seems to be happening intra-index than anywhere else. Sharon Bell
and team remain bullish on European stocks as they detail in "Equities and
the (not so scary) bond bear." We forecast yields to rise and indeed have
now taken a bearish stance on bonds (see Francesco Garzarelli's note from
two weeks ago, "On Bonds, and Italy"). Rising rates should not stifle the
rally we that we expect to continue in equities but a flatter yield curve
may favor growth over valuation as the main driver of equity returns. In the
US, Stuart Kaiser sounds an identical note in "US yield curve flattening
many growth and momentum trades."
Modest volatility, Great Moderation. Dominic Wilson and our economics team
look at conditions pre- and post the global financial crisis in "Global
Economics Weekly." Notably, we believe that the great moderation (a decline
in the severity/frequency of recessions) is likely continuing despite the
severity of the 2008 downturn. We argue that not only is a return to the
Great Moderation not an unreasonable expectation, but that our update of the
evidence for the post-crisis period shows it may already be here. And,
while the jury is still out (our short, three-year sample may simply reflect
a lucky statistical draw), we find good theoretical reasons to put
considerable weight on the early data.
Looking Ahead: We get the weekly jobless claims report this morning plus a
Pending Home Sales index.
Performance of global indices
As of March 27, 2014
Source: Reuters
Today's Events:
08:30 am - GDP - Third Estimate - Q4
08:30 am - Initial Jobless Claims
10:00 am - Pending Home Sales - Feb
11:00 am - Kansas City Fed Survey - Mar
US Morning Call for March 27, 2014:
Banks, Ramsden / Nash / Blostein: Stress test round 2: Fed renders split
decision on capital returns.
Banks released 2014 capital return plans last night with Large Caps
struggling to return excess capital and Regional Banks’ buybacks falling
below expectations. Credit cards and Trust Banks were clear winners. Citi’s
qualitative failure underscores that the process remains unpredictable.
Remain CL-Buy on COF (buybacks well-above expectations), STI (strong
dividend) and USB (despite disappointing buyback).
Strategy, Kaiser: US yield curve flattening many growth and momentum trades.
We continue to believe the S&P 500 can perform well in an environment of
rising 10-year yields as long as the move higher is driven by better growth
but recognize that rates can be a headwind for valuation that may limit P/E
expansion from here.
PVH Corp. (PVH, CL-Buy), Drucker Mann: Trough earnings, trough multiple, and
catalysts: Upgrade to CL-Buy.
Add PVH to CL-Buy as a combination of trough earnings, trough valuation and
near-term catalysts make it one of the most compelling stocks across all
Consumer. 6-month target, $160.
Soft Drinks, Hong: The Sweetener Wars: Is 2014 the “year of the natural
sweetener”?
Look for natural sweeteners to be introduced across the beverage sector this
year. But we are hesitant to get excited about a favorable product cycle as
soft-drink penetration is already high. Remain cautious on US soft-drink
fundamentals. Sell DPS.
Notable Research not on the call:
Macro
•European Economics Daily: European exposure to tensions between
Russia and Ukraine
•Global Economics Weekly: Did the Great Recession derail the Great
Moderation? Probably not
•The Credit Line: Searching for carry in a duration-risky world
•Metal Detector: Crunch time for aluminium
Consumer
•Francesca's Holdings Corporation (FRAN): Structural issues to come
into focus as macro, weather subside; Sell
Financials
•Europe: Banks: FED objects to capital plans of US BHCs of HSBC, RBS,
SAN
•Real Estate: REITs: CRE transactions up 19% YoY in February; CBD
office outperforms
•India: Financial Services: Neglected PSUs poised for rally on
emerging macro/political clarity; Buy SBI, BOB
Industrials
•Steel Scraps Monthly: Steel price slide stops above $600/t despite
deterioration in scrap & iron ore; bullish
•Titan Cement (TTNr.AT): Downgrade to Neutral on outperformance
Conference Calls & Conferences:
•Today, March 27 @ 10 AM EDT – GS Industrial Research Conf Call
Series: “Private carrier perspective on the US airline industry” with
Silver Airways CEO, David Pflieger; hosted by Tom Kim; Dial-in: 973-528-0056
; passcode: 681041;
Silver Airways is Florida based, operating 170 daily flights on the East
coast.
•Today, March 27 – GS Consumer Digital Day 2014; Goldman Sachs
Offices, London;
website link: http://www.gs.com/events/dgtlmda2014.
•March 31 @ 11 AM EDT – GS Retail/Consumer Private Company Access
Conf Call Series: Cot’n Wash, Inc. “Dropps” with Jonathan Propper, CEO;
hosted by Jason English; Dial-in: 973-528-0056; passcode: 469101;
webcast link: http://www.visualwebcaster.com/event.asp?id=98458.
Cot’n Wash is the maker of Dropps, a unit does laundry detergent.
微信公众平台 USOPTIONS
by Chris Hussey
Published March 27, 2014
Stocks in Asia were decidedly mixed Thursday with the Nikkei gaining ground
while China stocks declined on little meaningful incremental news. Stocks in
India rose again and are now up 5% ytd - one of the best performing stock
markets in the world. Investors appear to be establishing bullish positions
ahead of India's once every 5 years national elections this year - the
subject of Tushar Poddar's "India: All eyes on elections" note this morning.
Notably, in our baseline scenario for India, we see GDP growth picking up
to 5.5% in FY15E from 4.6% in FY14E. And we also revise our INR forecasts to
build in some near-term strength due to improving balance of payments and
positive investor sentiment on the elections.
European equities are opening the day directionless amidst the news vacuum
as more seems to be happening intra-index than anywhere else. Sharon Bell
and team remain bullish on European stocks as they detail in "Equities and
the (not so scary) bond bear." We forecast yields to rise and indeed have
now taken a bearish stance on bonds (see Francesco Garzarelli's note from
two weeks ago, "On Bonds, and Italy"). Rising rates should not stifle the
rally we that we expect to continue in equities but a flatter yield curve
may favor growth over valuation as the main driver of equity returns. In the
US, Stuart Kaiser sounds an identical note in "US yield curve flattening
many growth and momentum trades."
Modest volatility, Great Moderation. Dominic Wilson and our economics team
look at conditions pre- and post the global financial crisis in "Global
Economics Weekly." Notably, we believe that the great moderation (a decline
in the severity/frequency of recessions) is likely continuing despite the
severity of the 2008 downturn. We argue that not only is a return to the
Great Moderation not an unreasonable expectation, but that our update of the
evidence for the post-crisis period shows it may already be here. And,
while the jury is still out (our short, three-year sample may simply reflect
a lucky statistical draw), we find good theoretical reasons to put
considerable weight on the early data.
Looking Ahead: We get the weekly jobless claims report this morning plus a
Pending Home Sales index.
Performance of global indices
As of March 27, 2014
Source: Reuters
Today's Events:
08:30 am - GDP - Third Estimate - Q4
08:30 am - Initial Jobless Claims
10:00 am - Pending Home Sales - Feb
11:00 am - Kansas City Fed Survey - Mar
US Morning Call for March 27, 2014:
Banks, Ramsden / Nash / Blostein: Stress test round 2: Fed renders split
decision on capital returns.
Banks released 2014 capital return plans last night with Large Caps
struggling to return excess capital and Regional Banks’ buybacks falling
below expectations. Credit cards and Trust Banks were clear winners. Citi’s
qualitative failure underscores that the process remains unpredictable.
Remain CL-Buy on COF (buybacks well-above expectations), STI (strong
dividend) and USB (despite disappointing buyback).
Strategy, Kaiser: US yield curve flattening many growth and momentum trades.
We continue to believe the S&P 500 can perform well in an environment of
rising 10-year yields as long as the move higher is driven by better growth
but recognize that rates can be a headwind for valuation that may limit P/E
expansion from here.
PVH Corp. (PVH, CL-Buy), Drucker Mann: Trough earnings, trough multiple, and
catalysts: Upgrade to CL-Buy.
Add PVH to CL-Buy as a combination of trough earnings, trough valuation and
near-term catalysts make it one of the most compelling stocks across all
Consumer. 6-month target, $160.
Soft Drinks, Hong: The Sweetener Wars: Is 2014 the “year of the natural
sweetener”?
Look for natural sweeteners to be introduced across the beverage sector this
year. But we are hesitant to get excited about a favorable product cycle as
soft-drink penetration is already high. Remain cautious on US soft-drink
fundamentals. Sell DPS.
Notable Research not on the call:
Macro
•European Economics Daily: European exposure to tensions between
Russia and Ukraine
•Global Economics Weekly: Did the Great Recession derail the Great
Moderation? Probably not
•The Credit Line: Searching for carry in a duration-risky world
•Metal Detector: Crunch time for aluminium
Consumer
•Francesca's Holdings Corporation (FRAN): Structural issues to come
into focus as macro, weather subside; Sell
Financials
•Europe: Banks: FED objects to capital plans of US BHCs of HSBC, RBS,
SAN
•Real Estate: REITs: CRE transactions up 19% YoY in February; CBD
office outperforms
•India: Financial Services: Neglected PSUs poised for rally on
emerging macro/political clarity; Buy SBI, BOB
Industrials
•Steel Scraps Monthly: Steel price slide stops above $600/t despite
deterioration in scrap & iron ore; bullish
•Titan Cement (TTNr.AT): Downgrade to Neutral on outperformance
Conference Calls & Conferences:
•Today, March 27 @ 10 AM EDT – GS Industrial Research Conf Call
Series: “Private carrier perspective on the US airline industry” with
Silver Airways CEO, David Pflieger; hosted by Tom Kim; Dial-in: 973-528-0056
; passcode: 681041;
Silver Airways is Florida based, operating 170 daily flights on the East
coast.
•Today, March 27 – GS Consumer Digital Day 2014; Goldman Sachs
Offices, London;
website link: http://www.gs.com/events/dgtlmda2014.
•March 31 @ 11 AM EDT – GS Retail/Consumer Private Company Access
Conf Call Series: Cot’n Wash, Inc. “Dropps” with Jonathan Propper, CEO;
hosted by Jason English; Dial-in: 973-528-0056; passcode: 469101;
webcast link: http://www.visualwebcaster.com/event.asp?id=98458.
Cot’n Wash is the maker of Dropps, a unit does laundry detergent.