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Americas : Market Intelligence – Morning Update
微信公众平台 USOPTIONS
by Chris Hussey
Published March 28, 2014
Stocks in Asia were mixed Friday with a somewhat positive tilt as Japan and
Hong Kong saw gains while Shanghai and Taiwan ticked down a hair. Data out
of the region continues to paint a complex picture. In Japan, February
retail sales were strong (+3.6% yoy) but appears to be tied to consumers
buying items ahead of a planned sales tax hike in April since the February
real household spending survey showed a paradoxical 2.5% yoy decline. In
Korea, industrial production fell 1.8% mom in February and retail sales
declined 3.2% as the export-driven economy continues to struggle with
flagging demand from its EM trading partners (notably China).
European equities are opening the day with a more definitively upward bias
amidst very little news as we begin to close out March. Notably, across
asset classes this week has delivered a varied view on risk. Europe's STOXX
600 is up almost 2% on the week as investors continue to position for a
European economic recovery despite lingering geo-political risks. And copper
has climbed back above $3/lb amidst signs that China policy makers may be
easing financial conditions again.
In the bond market, however, yields on the 10-year Treasury have almost
receded back to pre-FOMC statement levels (currently 2.69%) as despite an
incrementally hawkish tone from the Fed, investors appear to either lack
confidence in the Fed's resolve to raise rates or have a more bearish view
of the growth acceleration that the Fed forecasts (see Francesco Garzarelli'
s note from earlier this week, "The Fed Tosses a Stone into the Pond" for
details on our rates view).
Where income inequality matters for investing. Income inequality has widened
in most countries over the last 2 decades writes Hugo Scott-Gall in “
Fortnightly Thoughts.” Globalization and technology have allowed high-
skilled labors to command increased wages, while lower skilled labor has
been arbitraged impeding middle income levels in DMs. Education and social
welfare can serve as at least a partial bridge to the income gap. Providers
of education and broader welfare, and consumer-facing companies that are
favorably exposed to changes in real
growth for different income levels (trading down to discounters) and ongoing
income growth for higher earners (prime residential real estate, high-end
retail and luxury).
Looking Ahead: We get the February PCE and Personal Income reports today
plus a final Michigan Sentiment reading as we near the end of March.
Performance of global indices
As of March 28, 2014
Source: Reuters
Today's Events:
08:30 am - PCE Core Price Index - Feb
08:30 am - PCE Price Index - Feb
08:30 am - Personal Consumption - Feb
08:30 am - Personal Income - Feb
09:55 am - U. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment - Final - Mar
US Morning Call for March 28, 2014:
Energy Strategy, Singer: Energy FAQ: Stay thematic – upside for oil/gas/
services/refining/solar.
The Energy sector continues to underperform but our themes have and should
continue to deliver alpha. Focus on. (1) Nat gas prices need to move higher
to trigger a supply response - Buy SWN/NRG, HAL/PTEN. (2) Oil saturation
still not likely soon - Buy EOG. (3) Focus on dividend growers (MLPs/
pipelines) for yield - Buy ENB/PAGP. (4) Keep buying solar with a focus on
owner-operators - Buy SCTY, SUNE. (5) More upside in refiners – Buy HFC.
Pipelines and MLPs, Holder: NGL supply surge driving demand solutions; Buy
EPD and TRGP.
Increasing international demand for US propane and butane should drive NGL
demand (and supply) higher, creating a sustainably favorable environment for
well-positioned NGL pipeline and infrastructure companies. Buy EPD and TRGP
.
Kinross Gold Corp. (K.TO, Neutral), Quail: Upgrade to Neutral on
underperformance; 12m PT of C$4.20 intact.
Upgrade Toronto-listed Kinross to Neutral from Sell as it approaches our C$4
.20 price target. Lingering headwind: sharp capex cuts over the past 12
months may lead to production shortfalls in the quarters ahead.
Hardware, Shope: Adjusting price targets; see additional upside for Buy-
rated EMC.
We raise price target on Buy-rated EMC by 18% to $33 as fading cyclical
headwinds and its attractive developed market enterprise exposure should
drive sustained outperformance in 2014. We also roll forward our Hardware
price targets to 2015: Buy CDW, AAPL; Sell HPQ, LXK and QLGC.
Automobiles, Archambault: The Road Ahead.
Dana (DAN, Buy), Archambault: Mid America Truck Show: takeaways from meeting
with Dana Management.
Meritor (MTOR, Buy), Archambault: Meeting reinforces view on end market
expansion and execution opportunity.
High vehicle inventories (partly weather-induced) coupled with a mix
rotation towards small cars and crossovers may weigh on US car pricing. But
while inventory is high, we believe it is manageable at this time.
Additionally, EBITDA growth throughout the Autos sector is now better
understood. Focus on: product stories (GM, Ford); and accelerating truck and
tire markets (DAN, MTOR, GT).
Notable Research not on the call:
Macro
•Emerging Markets Weekly: Not all China risks are created equal
•EM Strategy Spotlight: Dissecting China risk: The factors that set
the pace for EM
•Global Market Views: Positioning for the ECB
•Asia Economics Analyst: India: Adding 110 million jobs
•Fortnightly Thoughts: Unequal income, unequal implications
•Japan Economics Analyst: Japan’s terms of trade deteriorate much
faster and larger than Germany
Consumer
•Dollar General Corporation (DG): It will take more than weather to
take this General down; CL-Buy
Financials
•Asset Managers: Money manager barometer: Solid MF inflows, mixed
ETFs; FAQs on RLAs
Healthcare
•Johnson & Johnson (JNJ): Potential for value creation from business
separation
Industrials
•Aerospace & Defense: Aerospace in Pictures: March 2014
•Airlines: Views on the US airline industry by private operator
TMT
•Apple Inc. (AAPL): Office comes to iPad
•Microsoft Corp. (MSFT): As expected – Office for iPad announced
Conference Calls & Conferences:
•March 31 @ 11 AM EDT – GS Retail/Consumer Private Company Access
Conf Call Series: Cot’n Wash, Inc. “Dropps” with Jonathan Propper, CEO;
hosted by Jason English; Dial-in: 973-528-0056; passcode: 469101;
webcast link: http://www.visualwebcaster.com/event.asp?id=98458.
Cot’n Wash is the maker of Dropps, a unit does laundry detergent.
微信公众平台 USOPTIONS
by Chris Hussey
Published March 28, 2014
Stocks in Asia were mixed Friday with a somewhat positive tilt as Japan and
Hong Kong saw gains while Shanghai and Taiwan ticked down a hair. Data out
of the region continues to paint a complex picture. In Japan, February
retail sales were strong (+3.6% yoy) but appears to be tied to consumers
buying items ahead of a planned sales tax hike in April since the February
real household spending survey showed a paradoxical 2.5% yoy decline. In
Korea, industrial production fell 1.8% mom in February and retail sales
declined 3.2% as the export-driven economy continues to struggle with
flagging demand from its EM trading partners (notably China).
European equities are opening the day with a more definitively upward bias
amidst very little news as we begin to close out March. Notably, across
asset classes this week has delivered a varied view on risk. Europe's STOXX
600 is up almost 2% on the week as investors continue to position for a
European economic recovery despite lingering geo-political risks. And copper
has climbed back above $3/lb amidst signs that China policy makers may be
easing financial conditions again.
In the bond market, however, yields on the 10-year Treasury have almost
receded back to pre-FOMC statement levels (currently 2.69%) as despite an
incrementally hawkish tone from the Fed, investors appear to either lack
confidence in the Fed's resolve to raise rates or have a more bearish view
of the growth acceleration that the Fed forecasts (see Francesco Garzarelli'
s note from earlier this week, "The Fed Tosses a Stone into the Pond" for
details on our rates view).
Where income inequality matters for investing. Income inequality has widened
in most countries over the last 2 decades writes Hugo Scott-Gall in “
Fortnightly Thoughts.” Globalization and technology have allowed high-
skilled labors to command increased wages, while lower skilled labor has
been arbitraged impeding middle income levels in DMs. Education and social
welfare can serve as at least a partial bridge to the income gap. Providers
of education and broader welfare, and consumer-facing companies that are
favorably exposed to changes in real
growth for different income levels (trading down to discounters) and ongoing
income growth for higher earners (prime residential real estate, high-end
retail and luxury).
Looking Ahead: We get the February PCE and Personal Income reports today
plus a final Michigan Sentiment reading as we near the end of March.
Performance of global indices
As of March 28, 2014
Source: Reuters
Today's Events:
08:30 am - PCE Core Price Index - Feb
08:30 am - PCE Price Index - Feb
08:30 am - Personal Consumption - Feb
08:30 am - Personal Income - Feb
09:55 am - U. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment - Final - Mar
US Morning Call for March 28, 2014:
Energy Strategy, Singer: Energy FAQ: Stay thematic – upside for oil/gas/
services/refining/solar.
The Energy sector continues to underperform but our themes have and should
continue to deliver alpha. Focus on. (1) Nat gas prices need to move higher
to trigger a supply response - Buy SWN/NRG, HAL/PTEN. (2) Oil saturation
still not likely soon - Buy EOG. (3) Focus on dividend growers (MLPs/
pipelines) for yield - Buy ENB/PAGP. (4) Keep buying solar with a focus on
owner-operators - Buy SCTY, SUNE. (5) More upside in refiners – Buy HFC.
Pipelines and MLPs, Holder: NGL supply surge driving demand solutions; Buy
EPD and TRGP.
Increasing international demand for US propane and butane should drive NGL
demand (and supply) higher, creating a sustainably favorable environment for
well-positioned NGL pipeline and infrastructure companies. Buy EPD and TRGP
.
Kinross Gold Corp. (K.TO, Neutral), Quail: Upgrade to Neutral on
underperformance; 12m PT of C$4.20 intact.
Upgrade Toronto-listed Kinross to Neutral from Sell as it approaches our C$4
.20 price target. Lingering headwind: sharp capex cuts over the past 12
months may lead to production shortfalls in the quarters ahead.
Hardware, Shope: Adjusting price targets; see additional upside for Buy-
rated EMC.
We raise price target on Buy-rated EMC by 18% to $33 as fading cyclical
headwinds and its attractive developed market enterprise exposure should
drive sustained outperformance in 2014. We also roll forward our Hardware
price targets to 2015: Buy CDW, AAPL; Sell HPQ, LXK and QLGC.
Automobiles, Archambault: The Road Ahead.
Dana (DAN, Buy), Archambault: Mid America Truck Show: takeaways from meeting
with Dana Management.
Meritor (MTOR, Buy), Archambault: Meeting reinforces view on end market
expansion and execution opportunity.
High vehicle inventories (partly weather-induced) coupled with a mix
rotation towards small cars and crossovers may weigh on US car pricing. But
while inventory is high, we believe it is manageable at this time.
Additionally, EBITDA growth throughout the Autos sector is now better
understood. Focus on: product stories (GM, Ford); and accelerating truck and
tire markets (DAN, MTOR, GT).
Notable Research not on the call:
Macro
•Emerging Markets Weekly: Not all China risks are created equal
•EM Strategy Spotlight: Dissecting China risk: The factors that set
the pace for EM
•Global Market Views: Positioning for the ECB
•Asia Economics Analyst: India: Adding 110 million jobs
•Fortnightly Thoughts: Unequal income, unequal implications
•Japan Economics Analyst: Japan’s terms of trade deteriorate much
faster and larger than Germany
Consumer
•Dollar General Corporation (DG): It will take more than weather to
take this General down; CL-Buy
Financials
•Asset Managers: Money manager barometer: Solid MF inflows, mixed
ETFs; FAQs on RLAs
Healthcare
•Johnson & Johnson (JNJ): Potential for value creation from business
separation
Industrials
•Aerospace & Defense: Aerospace in Pictures: March 2014
•Airlines: Views on the US airline industry by private operator
TMT
•Apple Inc. (AAPL): Office comes to iPad
•Microsoft Corp. (MSFT): As expected – Office for iPad announced
Conference Calls & Conferences:
•March 31 @ 11 AM EDT – GS Retail/Consumer Private Company Access
Conf Call Series: Cot’n Wash, Inc. “Dropps” with Jonathan Propper, CEO;
hosted by Jason English; Dial-in: 973-528-0056; passcode: 469101;
webcast link: http://www.visualwebcaster.com/event.asp?id=98458.
Cot’n Wash is the maker of Dropps, a unit does laundry detergent.