教你如何炒Option （三） - 未名空间MITBBS历史存档

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教你如何炒Option （三）

教你如何炒Option （三）# Stock

n*x2014-07-15 07:07

1 楼

谈“教”算不上，只是我自己的一点心得。延续以前的标题，不喜欢的就凑乎着看吧
。
今天谈谈我为什么不卖裸call和裸put。玩option, 买有买的道理，卖有卖的道理。没
有必要非要争个谁对谁错。在市场里面，赚钱才是硬道理。对我来说，not selling
naked call/put原因很简单，时间周期太长，profit太少， risk太大。你算算，如果
你上个礼拜你卖10个MSFT的strangle ($41/$43),两个礼拜你运气好的好获利~300~$
400,而且$41/$43其实是非常tight的一个setup,运气不好的你还一分钱赚不到，$40/$
44你也就赚个buffet. 两个礼拜我的commission有时都有几百块，玩这个实在是不值。
对我这个几万块的小帐户来说，10个strangle占用的margin会让我错失很多机会.MSFT
option太便宜？你有胆去卖10个TSLA，保证你晚上睡不着觉。
换个角度看，这个市场是公平的，买option的不是每次都能翻个10X，20X，大多数情况
基本清零了。被你碰到的20倍的概率就相当于是jackpot。所以我买option的目的不是
等着他翻个20倍。反之这也是为什么会有人喜欢卖option. Option的pricing 天生对
seller是有利的，time decay, IV drop这些都是为什么有这么多option seller. 但
注意了，option buyer买了100次碰到了Jackpot, 就意味着option seller 100次会遇
到一个blowup,记住一句话:市场永远是公平的。 You think you are smart with
selling options, well，引用一句话， "you are just fooled by randomness"。
TSLA今天回调的有点厉害，本月max pain在$235.今天估计就这么猪下去了，明天看开
盘如何。

t*o2014-07-15 07:07

2 楼

zan

t*l2014-07-15 07:07

3 楼

比较好奇问一下。大家像这样dt的都早上不用送孩子不用上班的吗。胃肠好奇。

d*g2014-07-15 07:07

4 楼

学习了, THANKS

k*k2014-07-15 07:07

5 楼

Indeed, randomness.
Naked selling isnt invented for little fishes like us. There are big sharks
in the water selling options at different strike, exp date, ect. They hedge
their position very well so they always sleep soundly at night and counting
cash on exp date.
20x return in one week is never their objective. With billions of dollar
under management, a 2% monthly growth will be stellar for them and continue
to provide them with 20 years old up-scale call girls, private jets and
seaside mansions.

selling
MSFT

【在 n**x 的大作中提到】

: 谈“教”算不上，只是我自己的一点心得。延续以前的标题，不喜欢的就凑乎着看吧
: 。
: 今天谈谈我为什么不卖裸call和裸put。玩option, 买有买的道理，卖有卖的道理。没
: 有必要非要争个谁对谁错。在市场里面，赚钱才是硬道理。对我来说，not selling
: naked call/put原因很简单，时间周期太长，profit太少， risk太大。你算算，如果
: 你上个礼拜你卖10个MSFT的strangle ($41/$43),两个礼拜你运气好的好获利~300~$
: 400,而且$41/$43其实是非常tight的一个setup,运气不好的你还一分钱赚不到，$40/$
: 44你也就赚个buffet. 两个礼拜我的commission有时都有几百块，玩这个实在是不值。
: 对我这个几万块的小帐户来说，10个strangle占用的margin会让我错失很多机会.MSFT
: option太便宜？你有胆去卖10个TSLA，保证你晚上睡不着觉。

l*e2014-07-15 07:07

6 楼

新人顶一下！

谈“教”算不上，只是我自己的一点心得。延续以前的标题，不喜欢的就凑乎着看吧
。今天谈谈我为什么不卖裸call和裸put。玩option, 买有买的道理，卖有卖的道理。
没有必要........

【在 n**x 的大作中提到】

T*u2014-07-15 07:07

7 楼

Nice post. I don't like selling option either because I don't have a big
account and I hate the idea that the potential loss is unlimited.
I don't like those advanced Technics such as strangle, straddle. Option
itself is complicated already, and you should look at the big picture and
think like trading stock. Focus on improving TA and FA instead. If you don't
have enough confidence on your trade, then just wait. There are always good
opportunities.
About TSLA, I was hoping it can go to 250+ a few weeks ago like Prof Lang.
Recently there are so many negative reports. I thought even if the
institutions want to sell, there might be a final push like the recent NFLX
exhaustive gap up.

W*T2014-07-15 07:07

8 楼

今天卖了15个tsla的option，晚上要睡不着觉了。

w*k2014-07-15 07:07

9 楼

有人不喜欢卖奥普信，因为获利有限，风险不小
有人不喜欢买奥普信，因为点位不到，过期作废
我的感觉卖奥普信，有点像保险公司卖保险。你交保险金，到期之前房子烧了，保险公
司要陪一大笔；但是到期之前房子没事，那么保险金就差不多是白交了。哪个更合算，
就得看保险金额和房子着火的概率了。
就像买卖股票，捞底和割肉的擦肩而过，各自骂声傻逼。但事实上，双方都有能挣钱的
时候，都有亏的时候，看各人自己适合哪一种方法了。

't
good
NFLX

【在 T******u 的大作中提到】

: Nice post. I don't like selling option either because I don't have a big
: account and I hate the idea that the potential loss is unlimited.
: I don't like those advanced Technics such as strangle, straddle. Option
: itself is complicated already, and you should look at the big picture and
: think like trading stock. Focus on improving TA and FA instead. If you don't
: have enough confidence on your trade, then just wait. There are always good
: opportunities.
: About TSLA, I was hoping it can go to 250+ a few weeks ago like Prof Lang.
: Recently there are so many negative reports. I thought even if the
: institutions want to sell, there might be a final push like the recent NFLX

w*22014-07-15 07:07

10 楼

牛。期待4

o*12014-07-15 07:07

11 楼

牛贴旁观

T*u2014-07-15 07:07

12 楼

Well said and very interesting analogy.
I feel more comfortable using 5-10% of my cash to trade option than spending
a lot of cash or even margin to buy stock. I think option is a good way to
protect your profit from the previous bull market.
I think the most dangerous thing in stock market is wishful thinking.
Sometimes it's just so much easier to cut loss quickly rather than hold and
hope.

【在 w**k 的大作中提到】

: 有人不喜欢卖奥普信，因为获利有限，风险不小
: 有人不喜欢买奥普信，因为点位不到，过期作废
: 我的感觉卖奥普信，有点像保险公司卖保险。你交保险金，到期之前房子烧了，保险公
: 司要陪一大笔；但是到期之前房子没事，那么保险金就差不多是白交了。哪个更合算，
: 就得看保险金额和房子着火的概率了。
: 就像买卖股票，捞底和割肉的擦肩而过，各自骂声傻逼。但事实上，双方都有能挣钱的
: 时候，都有亏的时候，看各人自己适合哪一种方法了。
:
: 't
: good

y*d2014-07-15 07:07

13 楼

如果你爱一个人，让他去做option，因为option是天堂。
如果你恨一个人，让他去做option,因为option是毒品。
-in my 2 cents. ^_^

c*n2014-07-15 07:07

14 楼

翻出来

c*12014-07-15 07:07

15 楼

I think selling options is like to selling (car, house,...)insurance.
Yes, option sellers might suffer big lose sometime. However, it is
profitable in the
long run. My goal is 10 ~20% return rate per year.
I am glad to see most people want to buy options.If most people want to sell
options, then option selling will be unprofitable.

selling
MSFT

【在 n**x 的大作中提到】