Here is how the math works# Stock
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- Currently, Alibaba’s stake owned by Yahoo has a $10 – 20
billion tax bill associated with it, depending on how it trades post-IPO
- The Yahoo Japan (YJ) stake owned by Yahoo has about a $3 billion
tax bill associated with it at current market prices
- Yahoo’s Wall Street analysts all discount the taxes Yahoo would
have to pay on these stake sales in their current price targets for Yahoo
- Let’s assume that Alibaba becomes a $200 billion market cap
company post IPO (which as I said the other day is currently the consensus
estimate per Bloomberg)
- Yahoo will have $9 per share in cash (after the Alibaba IPO and
assuming their first tranche sale happens at an IPO price for Alibaba of $
150 billion)
- They have a stake in Yahoo Japan worth $9 per share (pre-tax)
- They will have a remaining stake in Alibaba worth $33 per share (
pre-tax assuming Alibaba goes to $200 billion post-IPO)
- Yahoo’s core business likely has a minimum value of $5 per share
(which assumes a very conservative 4-5x EBTIDA on a conservative assumption
of EBITDA going forward)
- Added together, you have a per share value of $56 for Yahoo’s
assets which is significantly higher than the $33 it trades at today
billion tax bill associated with it, depending on how it trades post-IPO
- The Yahoo Japan (YJ) stake owned by Yahoo has about a $3 billion
tax bill associated with it at current market prices
- Yahoo’s Wall Street analysts all discount the taxes Yahoo would
have to pay on these stake sales in their current price targets for Yahoo
- Let’s assume that Alibaba becomes a $200 billion market cap
company post IPO (which as I said the other day is currently the consensus
estimate per Bloomberg)
- Yahoo will have $9 per share in cash (after the Alibaba IPO and
assuming their first tranche sale happens at an IPO price for Alibaba of $
150 billion)
- They have a stake in Yahoo Japan worth $9 per share (pre-tax)
- They will have a remaining stake in Alibaba worth $33 per share (
pre-tax assuming Alibaba goes to $200 billion post-IPO)
- Yahoo’s core business likely has a minimum value of $5 per share
(which assumes a very conservative 4-5x EBTIDA on a conservative assumption
of EBITDA going forward)
- Added together, you have a per share value of $56 for Yahoo’s
assets which is significantly higher than the $33 it trades at today