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WANT A BET??? As Indexes Soar, Active Stock Pickers Can’t
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WANT A BET??? As Indexes Soar, Active Stock Pickers Can’t# Stock
L*n
1
PER WSJ Nov28, 2014
It’s been another turkey of a year for stock pickers.
Among all mutual funds that invest in big U.S. stocks like those in the S&P
500, only 9.3% are beating the index through Sept. 30, according to Denys
Glushkov, a senior researcher at Wharton Research Data Services at the
University of Pennsylvania. Although the year isn’t over, that is well
under the previous annual low of 12.9% in 1995 and the average of 38.6% over
the past quarter-century. Data through Oct. 31 from Lipper, a fund-research
firm, show results nearly as dismal.
=======================
一帮马后英雄个个都跳出来撇个嘴, 似乎38%很不屑的样子。 很好, 我给你个机会。
马前来个pick, within DOW30, set an entry day, that actually
would beat spy by 30% in either 6m, or 1 yr term (state the term up front)
. my pick beat spy by 50%. which was the original goal - a safe steady pick
that outperform spy . I will give you all my weibi. which is 现金:12407.18
(可用:12402.28). Any taker?
avatar
a*t
2
先举个旗,我不是来打赌的。我就想有人能用我的wag来打赌,不属于dow30但盘子也不
太小,希望大牛们能给分析一二。谢。
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L*n
3
WAG 盘子不够大。 波动也过大。
it seems to me the correct have more way to go. it's very unlikely it'll go
through new high from here straight.

【在 a*******t 的大作中提到】
: 先举个旗,我不是来打赌的。我就想有人能用我的wag来打赌,不属于dow30但盘子也不
: 太小,希望大牛们能给分析一二。谢。

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J*2
4
大夫,金矿可以长期hold吗?去年你说要买入金矿长期投资的。现在怎么办?
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p*s
5
这个不对吧, 大夫当时进nugt的时候是30多, 出货的时候将近60,在板上都实时喊了
的。

【在 J*********2 的大作中提到】
: 大夫,金矿可以长期hold吗?去年你说要买入金矿长期投资的。现在怎么办?
avatar
L*n
6
this is just a Majia. i treat it as a hair. don't have to respond to it.

【在 p*****s 的大作中提到】
: 这个不对吧, 大夫当时进nugt的时候是30多, 出货的时候将近60,在板上都实时喊了
: 的。

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J*2
7
我听他说长期投资金矿,就一直拿着NUGT。原来是骗我的吗,自己出掉了?

【在 p*****s 的大作中提到】
: 这个不对吧, 大夫当时进nugt的时候是30多, 出货的时候将近60,在板上都实时喊了
: 的。

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m*9
8
响应大夫号召看了下dow30的图,感觉GE,GS不错,请大夫评价下吧,谢谢!
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l*o
9
哪位英雄赶快接下招,好让大夫公布pick
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L*n
10
GE is a vast composite of many companies that overspend all spy sectors, it'
s like a mini-spy. unlikely to outbeat spy. i'd just buy SPY. there is one
exception of course. if it start to go HP's route.

【在 m***9 的大作中提到】
: 响应大夫号召看了下dow30的图,感觉GE,GS不错,请大夫评价下吧,谢谢!
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a*t
11
谢谢,我现在没有position,挂在list上继续关注吧。不知道有没有人会来跟你赌ibm
,我觉得他家把芯片割掉是非常大的利好,只是管理层问题太多,想转型还需要很多时
间。

go

【在 L****n 的大作中提到】
: WAG 盘子不够大。 波动也过大。
: it seems to me the correct have more way to go. it's very unlikely it'll go
: through new high from here straight.

avatar
L*n
12
i don't know what's wrong with IBM, just know it's bad. don't pick the
bottom. DOW stock rarely flash. should long the stock that look like DIS
last OCT.

ibm

【在 a*******t 的大作中提到】
: 谢谢,我现在没有position,挂在list上继续关注吧。不知道有没有人会来跟你赌ibm
: ,我觉得他家把芯片割掉是非常大的利好,只是管理层问题太多,想转型还需要很多时
: 间。
:
: go

avatar
a*t
13
谢谢指点,这就去做功课了。

【在 L****n 的大作中提到】
: i don't know what's wrong with IBM, just know it's bad. don't pick the
: bottom. DOW stock rarely flash. should long the stock that look like DIS
: last OCT.
:
: ibm

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M*n
14
How's ba?

★ 发自iPhone App: ChineseWeb 1.0.1

【在 L****n 的大作中提到】
: i don't know what's wrong with IBM, just know it's bad. don't pick the
: bottom. DOW stock rarely flash. should long the stock that look like DIS
: last OCT.
:
: ibm

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t*1
15
纯讨论,DOW里,MMM和JNJ应该能beat spy,6个月或一年都无所谓。
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L*n
16
hehe, that is my pick. i bot just a day before i post on DIS. didn't want to
give it out and be accused of pumping. some idiot even accused me of
pumping AAPL. i wish i could really.
BA is coming to a breakout point and i think the chance is good. after a
sharp rise, may see a period of rest/slight pull back, i took some profit
today. wait for the 2nd chance of entry to present itself.

【在 M****n 的大作中提到】
: How's ba?
:
: ★ 发自iPhone App: ChineseWeb 1.0.1

avatar
L*n
17
you can only pick one.

【在 t*********1 的大作中提到】
: 纯讨论,DOW里,MMM和JNJ应该能beat spy,6个月或一年都无所谓。
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t*1
18
那就JNJ吧。

【在 L****n 的大作中提到】
: you can only pick one.
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M*n
19
Haha! Thanks doctor.

to
★ 发自iPhone App: ChineseWeb 1.0.1

【在 L****n 的大作中提到】
: hehe, that is my pick. i bot just a day before i post on DIS. didn't want to
: give it out and be accused of pumping. some idiot even accused me of
: pumping AAPL. i wish i could really.
: BA is coming to a breakout point and i think the chance is good. after a
: sharp rise, may see a period of rest/slight pull back, i took some profit
: today. wait for the 2nd chance of entry to present itself.

avatar
L*n
20
that‘s it then, JNJ vs spy 1 yr. starting Monday. my pick is BA。

【在 t*********1 的大作中提到】
: 那就JNJ吧。
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a*t
21
如果我没记错,懒得看图了,你入的那天是站上某一均线然后回测均线。那天你说的时
候我去看了一下几年的历史,觉得已经涨的很高了所以不知道能有多少空间。除了ta,
是因为还看到现在油价对航空是很大的利好,美国经济继续复苏,所以觉得上涨空间还
不错吗?
还有一个问题,去年你推荐了hpq,今年涨得很好。你当时为啥看好hpq?我之所以对ibm
感兴趣,是因为ibm实在是比hpq强太远的公司。

to

【在 L****n 的大作中提到】
: hehe, that is my pick. i bot just a day before i post on DIS. didn't want to
: give it out and be accused of pumping. some idiot even accused me of
: pumping AAPL. i wish i could really.
: BA is coming to a breakout point and i think the chance is good. after a
: sharp rise, may see a period of rest/slight pull back, i took some profit
: today. wait for the 2nd chance of entry to present itself.

avatar
E*r
22
thx, doc!

to

【在 L****n 的大作中提到】
: hehe, that is my pick. i bot just a day before i post on DIS. didn't want to
: give it out and be accused of pumping. some idiot even accused me of
: pumping AAPL. i wish i could really.
: BA is coming to a breakout point and i think the chance is good. after a
: sharp rise, may see a period of rest/slight pull back, i took some profit
: today. wait for the 2nd chance of entry to present itself.

avatar
E*r
23
congrats! u guessed it.

【在 M****n 的大作中提到】
: Haha! Thanks doctor.
:
: to
: ★ 发自iPhone App: ChineseWeb 1.0.1

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b*p
24
ba很不错,谢谢!

to

【在 L****n 的大作中提到】
: hehe, that is my pick. i bot just a day before i post on DIS. didn't want to
: give it out and be accused of pumping. some idiot even accused me of
: pumping AAPL. i wish i could really.
: BA is coming to a breakout point and i think the chance is good. after a
: sharp rise, may see a period of rest/slight pull back, i took some profit
: today. wait for the 2nd chance of entry to present itself.

avatar
L*n
25
散户的FA都是野鸡FA。 真正值钱的FA都是要花很多钱的, 也不会免费给你。大致不要
和图形上看预想的相左就是。
hpq原来是小胖的pick. 我喊的比较大声, 大家都当成我的, 汗。 看好就是技术图形
走的标准,这次er我也上的长靠, 继续看好。hpq我在刚到20刀的时候发过很详细的技
术图的。 可惜没留底。 基本上是说25刀是很难过的, 但如跌回来是要买入的, 买入
点不难pick, 后面也抓的很准。在30刀的那条线我看错了, 估计是会折腾, 又要去
抢房, 就撤了。 谁想它没什么事似的就过了。 这次ER再重新归队。 呵呵。

ibm

【在 a*******t 的大作中提到】
: 如果我没记错,懒得看图了,你入的那天是站上某一均线然后回测均线。那天你说的时
: 候我去看了一下几年的历史,觉得已经涨的很高了所以不知道能有多少空间。除了ta,
: 是因为还看到现在油价对航空是很大的利好,美国经济继续复苏,所以觉得上涨空间还
: 不错吗?
: 还有一个问题,去年你推荐了hpq,今年涨得很好。你当时为啥看好hpq?我之所以对ibm
: 感兴趣,是因为ibm实在是比hpq强太远的公司。
:
: to

avatar
C*a
26
Ba is gao Wei Zhen dang. Not before breakout.

[发表自未名空间手机版 - m.mitbbs.com]

【在 b*****p 的大作中提到】
: ba很不错,谢谢!
:
: to

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L*n
27
hi, emily, good to see you. how is your trading? found some winners lately?

【在 E**********r 的大作中提到】
: thx, doc!
:
: to

avatar
C*a
28
BA in early 2013 is a breakout. BA has two down days this week, downtrend
formed
. FA might change and send it higher, but ta is not strong.
[发表自未名空间手机版 - m.mitbbs.com]
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E*r
29
hi, doc. great to see u! :)
trading have been enjoyable, hoping to build up a whole lot more on more
consistent wins. day trade ETF pairs mostly lately. caught JDST and DGAZ
today.
thx for generously sharing your trading tricks and tips despite what have
happened. it takes a BIG heart to do so. much appreciated.

【在 L****n 的大作中提到】
: hi, emily, good to see you. how is your trading? found some winners lately?
avatar
L*n
30
you mean the banzu business? i never gave a sh*t. i just want to say what i
want to say and i did. i can't change others. i've been here for many years.
seen many fights before. this bunch flies away, others will come.

【在 E**********r 的大作中提到】
: hi, doc. great to see u! :)
: trading have been enjoyable, hoping to build up a whole lot more on more
: consistent wins. day trade ETF pairs mostly lately. caught JDST and DGAZ
: today.
: thx for generously sharing your trading tricks and tips despite what have
: happened. it takes a BIG heart to do so. much appreciated.

avatar
E*r
31
got u and understandably so. :)
any who, it's GREAT to see you back and have been enjoying reading your
posts very much, 赞个性 and humor
happy holidays!

i
years.

【在 L****n 的大作中提到】
: you mean the banzu business? i never gave a sh*t. i just want to say what i
: want to say and i did. i can't change others. i've been here for many years.
: seen many fights before. this bunch flies away, others will come.

avatar
t*1
32
好的,多向你学习交流。
简单说下选JNJ的原因。
医药股这两年一直领先大盘,2015年这个趋势应该不会大变。JNJ是医药股的领头羊,
他与一般的药企不一样,业务由三驾马车驱动,consumer,pharmaceutical,device。
consumer和device的业绩增长一般,但pharmaceutical这两年增长非常强劲,因为2013
年批了不少重磅药,HCV,diabetes,看好这些药的销售继续增长。

【在 L****n 的大作中提到】
: that‘s it then, JNJ vs spy 1 yr. starting Monday. my pick is BA。
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L*n
33
thanks. JNJ could outperform in 2015. i was never into pharma. for some
reason. could be because it's wild. the chart look to me it's staling around
the year high. need more time to consolidate.

2013

【在 t*********1 的大作中提到】
: 好的,多向你学习交流。
: 简单说下选JNJ的原因。
: 医药股这两年一直领先大盘,2015年这个趋势应该不会大变。JNJ是医药股的领头羊,
: 他与一般的药企不一样,业务由三驾马车驱动,consumer,pharmaceutical,device。
: consumer和device的业绩增长一般,但pharmaceutical这两年增长非常强劲,因为2013
: 年批了不少重磅药,HCV,diabetes,看好这些药的销售继续增长。

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j*7
34
我选NKE.
avatar
L*n
35
Term?

★ 发自iPhone App: ChineseWeb 8.2.2

【在 j*****7 的大作中提到】
: 我选NKE.
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j*7
36
I seriously doubt NKE can beat SPY by 30%,not within 6 months or 1 yr.
Setting up this kind of goal is ridiculous/childish in nature. That being
said, if I have to pick one in DOW, I'd pick NKE.

【在 L****n 的大作中提到】
: Term?
:
: ★ 发自iPhone App: ChineseWeb 8.2.2

avatar
L*n
37
I kinda feel u are really into high thrill 3x game looking for high return..
.that could be dangerous.

★ 发自iPhone App: ChineseWeb 8.2.2

【在 E**********r 的大作中提到】
: hi, doc. great to see u! :)
: trading have been enjoyable, hoping to build up a whole lot more on more
: consistent wins. day trade ETF pairs mostly lately. caught JDST and DGAZ
: today.
: thx for generously sharing your trading tricks and tips despite what have
: happened. it takes a BIG heart to do so. much appreciated.

avatar
L*n
38
That's fine, at least you think NKE will outperform in 2015 among dow30. I'
ll add it in. Starting Monday. Just for fun and nothing to lose. I'm not
sure I could repeat either. That's why I want to set up a bet.
It's red hot right now. I got the feeling of 高处不胜寒 looking at the chart
. Good luck.

★ 发自iPhone App: ChineseWeb 8.2.2

【在 j*****7 的大作中提到】
: I seriously doubt NKE can beat SPY by 30%,not within 6 months or 1 yr.
: Setting up this kind of goal is ridiculous/childish in nature. That being
: said, if I have to pick one in DOW, I'd pick NKE.

avatar
E*r
39
thx, doc. i'm not playing a big account. it is for a thrill, indeed.
perhaps not suitable to mention it here. i'll be careful.

..

【在 L****n 的大作中提到】
: I kinda feel u are really into high thrill 3x game looking for high return..
: .that could be dangerous.
:
: ★ 发自iPhone App: ChineseWeb 8.2.2

avatar
E*r
40
what do you think of BITA, doc? it seems to make c&h pattern. last Wed,
broke out with volume, more upside completing the handle?

【在 L****n 的大作中提到】
: hi, emily, good to see you. how is your trading? found some winners lately?
avatar
L*n
41
呵呵, 原来早有定论. 吃屎都吃到家版去了, 啧啧. 家版吃够了, 跳蚤市场里连根毛都
没捞着, 这档子晃荡到股版来了. 尼玛真是个丧家狗.
发信人: carbon (kaben), 信区: Family
标 题: Re: 为什么中国人这么喜欢分裂?
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Sat May 3 09:08:27 2014, 美东)
就像阁下喜欢吃屎,
周围人说你丫笨的连吃屎都抢不到热火的。
你就觉得人是想来捞好处的?
avatar
a*t
42
谢谢你对hpq的分析。是的,散户一般拿不到第一手的数字,只能是靠着turkey二手信
息。但我总觉得很多大牛对趋势看得很准,你对信息的敏感度就极高,记得你曾经做过
一个代号好像是yrcw的,最清晰地记着某天有新闻说劳资达成协商,第二天你买入,过
了好几天那个说tsla要去90的人才来显摆。做那个应该说不是完全靠的ta吧?

【在 L****n 的大作中提到】
: 散户的FA都是野鸡FA。 真正值钱的FA都是要花很多钱的, 也不会免费给你。大致不要
: 和图形上看预想的相左就是。
: hpq原来是小胖的pick. 我喊的比较大声, 大家都当成我的, 汗。 看好就是技术图形
: 走的标准,这次er我也上的长靠, 继续看好。hpq我在刚到20刀的时候发过很详细的技
: 术图的。 可惜没留底。 基本上是说25刀是很难过的, 但如跌回来是要买入的, 买入
: 点不难pick, 后面也抓的很准。在30刀的那条线我看错了, 估计是会折腾, 又要去
: 抢房, 就撤了。 谁想它没什么事似的就过了。 这次ER再重新归队。 呵呵。
:
: ibm

avatar
L*n
43
这个news driven的跟TA没什么关系. 手快手慢差别很大. 这次捞到保不定下次陪出去
更多. 不是很reliable. 就是练个手.

【在 a*******t 的大作中提到】
: 谢谢你对hpq的分析。是的,散户一般拿不到第一手的数字,只能是靠着turkey二手信
: 息。但我总觉得很多大牛对趋势看得很准,你对信息的敏感度就极高,记得你曾经做过
: 一个代号好像是yrcw的,最清晰地记着某天有新闻说劳资达成协商,第二天你买入,过
: 了好几天那个说tsla要去90的人才来显摆。做那个应该说不是完全靠的ta吧?

avatar
a*t
44
我还在继续学习ta中,有人曾经说庄家很多时候会把图形做得很漂亮,怎样才能识别是
真的要涨还是套呢?比如说qihu这只股,从高处下来做了一段时间底,财报不错跳空高
开,量也不错,我觉得仅从图上看该是涨啊,难道我又看错了?

【在 L****n 的大作中提到】
: 这个news driven的跟TA没什么关系. 手快手慢差别很大. 这次捞到保不定下次陪出去
: 更多. 不是很reliable. 就是练个手.

avatar
L*n
45
奇虎这里看不清楚, 周线是很难看. ER的respond很难说, 不到跌破的颈线以上都是看
跌. 但不去做跌. 这次ER我没做它.

【在 a*******t 的大作中提到】
: 我还在继续学习ta中,有人曾经说庄家很多时候会把图形做得很漂亮,怎样才能识别是
: 真的要涨还是套呢?比如说qihu这只股,从高处下来做了一段时间底,财报不错跳空高
: 开,量也不错,我觉得仅从图上看该是涨啊,难道我又看错了?

avatar
L*n
46
it had a sharp rise and a deep correction. IBD no.1 stock that's right at it
's previous high. there is a IBD#1 curse. so i'll be careful. hold if you
have it. but have a stop out limit in mind. wouldn't open new position here
- could go higher but hard to keep the gain.

【在 E**********r 的大作中提到】
: what do you think of BITA, doc? it seems to make c&h pattern. last Wed,
: broke out with volume, more upside completing the handle?

avatar
E*r
47
i c. it could come down to make a double top. i have no position in this,
just following it among other popular picks to sharpen my trend prediction
capability a bit.
thx, doc.

it
here

【在 L****n 的大作中提到】
: it had a sharp rise and a deep correction. IBD no.1 stock that's right at it
: 's previous high. there is a IBD#1 curse. so i'll be careful. hold if you
: have it. but have a stop out limit in mind. wouldn't open new position here
: - could go higher but hard to keep the gain.

avatar
E*r
48
also, forgot to say yesterday, i stated BA might be your pick among DOW30 in
the club before you publicized it.
it had a nice uptrend last year and has been building base in a channel for
the past few months, that's usually a good thing before it takes off for
the next up trend
the best of luck to you on the bet! :)

to

【在 L****n 的大作中提到】
: hehe, that is my pick. i bot just a day before i post on DIS. didn't want to
: give it out and be accused of pumping. some idiot even accused me of
: pumping AAPL. i wish i could really.
: BA is coming to a breakout point and i think the chance is good. after a
: sharp rise, may see a period of rest/slight pull back, i took some profit
: today. wait for the 2nd chance of entry to present itself.

avatar
a*t
49
因为套牢盘的压力? 怎么我技术上有两个很大的问题,一个是怕追高,二是经常被震仓
震出来。我想问,怎样识别假突破呢?怎样才能知道庄家在震仓而不是要piaji?谢谢。

【在 L****n 的大作中提到】
: 奇虎这里看不清楚, 周线是很难看. ER的respond很难说, 不到跌破的颈线以上都是看
: 跌. 但不去做跌. 这次ER我没做它.

avatar
L*n
50
高低都是相对的。要对应你trading的time frame来考虑。 比如bby 11/19 晚 BBY er
beat, 可以估计明天会跳开。 因为我有这个股票, er也是赌了靠, 版上有关这个股
的贴会比较关注些。 版上有个说他烧了一个月, 那第二天会很伤, 高开在38会是当
时的高点, 短期回冲是很可能的, 但最好的估计也是回来关了gap, 中期这里是个突
破, 站几天就好继续走, 楼主不像是能拿得住短期回冲的点的人(烧一个月已经过了
俩个基本的stop loss)所以我的建议是尽快关了, 也许在当天是关在高点, 但回头
一看是在低点。
http://www.mitbbs.com/article0/Stock/35897711_0.html
类似的股比如说Maisy提的Rost. 她在er后高开仍然开靠, 这种就很aggressive了,
从但开长的atm靠还好些。 我比较不喜欢上这个位置, ER我也赌了突破。 ROST跳开后
进入historic high。 后面怎么走不是很有把握。 碰上回冲就会下水。如果假突破那
这个靠就会很伤。所以我的策略是先把堵ER的钱拿回来, 剩下的跟一段。 will try
to time the top selling piece by piece.
http://www.mitbbs.com/article/Stock/35903523_0.html
震仓是很难防的, 重仓的话都是宁信其有, 安全第一。 轻仓可以根据市场情况take
a bet.

谢。

【在 a*******t 的大作中提到】
: 因为套牢盘的压力? 怎么我技术上有两个很大的问题,一个是怕追高,二是经常被震仓
: 震出来。我想问,怎样识别假突破呢?怎样才能知道庄家在震仓而不是要piaji?谢谢。

avatar
n*i
51
大夫请问你觉得DAL, DST怎样呢?
avatar
a*t
52
太感谢了,信息量极大,我需要去认真研读一下。再次感谢,假包子就算了,你兜里不
缺。以后有机会请公主们吃真的吧。

er

【在 L****n 的大作中提到】
: 高低都是相对的。要对应你trading的time frame来考虑。 比如bby 11/19 晚 BBY er
: beat, 可以估计明天会跳开。 因为我有这个股票, er也是赌了靠, 版上有关这个股
: 的贴会比较关注些。 版上有个说他烧了一个月, 那第二天会很伤, 高开在38会是当
: 时的高点, 短期回冲是很可能的, 但最好的估计也是回来关了gap, 中期这里是个突
: 破, 站几天就好继续走, 楼主不像是能拿得住短期回冲的点的人(烧一个月已经过了
: 俩个基本的stop loss)所以我的建议是尽快关了, 也许在当天是关在高点, 但回头
: 一看是在低点。
: http://www.mitbbs.com/article0/Stock/35897711_0.html
: 类似的股比如说Maisy提的Rost. 她在er后高开仍然开靠, 这种就很aggressive了,
: 从但开长的atm靠还好些。 我比较不喜欢上这个位置, ER我也赌了突破。 ROST跳开后

avatar
w*k
53
谢谢

er

【在 L****n 的大作中提到】
: 高低都是相对的。要对应你trading的time frame来考虑。 比如bby 11/19 晚 BBY er
: beat, 可以估计明天会跳开。 因为我有这个股票, er也是赌了靠, 版上有关这个股
: 的贴会比较关注些。 版上有个说他烧了一个月, 那第二天会很伤, 高开在38会是当
: 时的高点, 短期回冲是很可能的, 但最好的估计也是回来关了gap, 中期这里是个突
: 破, 站几天就好继续走, 楼主不像是能拿得住短期回冲的点的人(烧一个月已经过了
: 俩个基本的stop loss)所以我的建议是尽快关了, 也许在当天是关在高点, 但回头
: 一看是在低点。
: http://www.mitbbs.com/article0/Stock/35897711_0.html
: 类似的股比如说Maisy提的Rost. 她在er后高开仍然开靠, 这种就很aggressive了,
: 从但开长的atm靠还好些。 我比较不喜欢上这个位置, ER我也赌了突破。 ROST跳开后

avatar
E*r
54
BITA今天血跌呀,幸亏没进!谢大夫!
发信人: Lexian (蒙古大夫), 信区: Stock
标 题: Re: WANT A BET??? As Indexes Soar, Active Stock Pickers Ca
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Sun Nov 30 10:12:44 2014, 美东)
it had a sharp rise and a deep correction. IBD no.1 stock that's right at it
's previous high. there is a IBD#1 curse. so i'll be careful. hold if you
have it. but have a stop out limit in mind. wouldn't open new position here
- could go higher but hard to keep the gain.

【在 E**********r 的大作中提到】
: what do you think of BITA, doc? it seems to make c&h pattern. last Wed,
: broke out with volume, more upside completing the handle?

avatar
L*n
55
after 1st week, JNJ is leading. NKE stalls after 6wks of rapid rise. BA
retest broken trendline. all underperform SPY.

P
over
research

【在 L****n 的大作中提到】
: PER WSJ Nov28, 2014
: It’s been another turkey of a year for stock pickers.
: Among all mutual funds that invest in big U.S. stocks like those in the S&P
: 500, only 9.3% are beating the index through Sept. 30, according to Denys
: Glushkov, a senior researcher at Wharton Research Data Services at the
: University of Pennsylvania. Although the year isn’t over, that is well
: under the previous annual low of 12.9% in 1995 and the average of 38.6% over
: the past quarter-century. Data through Oct. 31 from Lipper, a fund-research
: firm, show results nearly as dismal.
: =======================

avatar
j*7
56
Thanks for the follow up.
SPY不那么好轻易beat的.
所以说散户还是先和SPY掰掰手腕吧.

【在 L****n 的大作中提到】
: after 1st week, JNJ is leading. NKE stalls after 6wks of rapid rise. BA
: retest broken trendline. all underperform SPY.
:
: P
: over
: research

avatar
T*u
57
谢谢大夫的大作。欢迎回来。
我以前也喜欢在ER爆了以后买call, 好像对于AAPL, TSLA, NFLX这类科技股还可以。

【在 L****n 的大作中提到】
: after 1st week, JNJ is leading. NKE stalls after 6wks of rapid rise. BA
: retest broken trendline. all underperform SPY.
:
: P
: over
: research

avatar
f*0
58
被牛大牛害了,赔包子

【在 b*****p 的大作中提到】
: ba很不错,谢谢!
:
: to

avatar
L*n
59
BA broke down. the news is out today. watch and wait, for short term, watch
for the rebound to 126 area, if weak, sell , for long term, sell if it drop
below 120.
avatar
j*7
60
DOW component 中的股票大幅度beat SPY是偶然事件.
avatar
L*n
61
still long time. be patient.

【在 j*****7 的大作中提到】
: DOW component 中的股票大幅度beat SPY是偶然事件.
avatar
a*t
62
这个应该会有一段时间的整理吧?最近看到过一篇分析,如果油价持续低迷,航空公司
业务持续上升那么就会换飞机了,毕竟有很多公司都需要换飞机。

【在 L****n 的大作中提到】
: still long time. be patient.
avatar
j*7
63
大夫更新一下这周吧, 好象都不怎么样. 真没想到波音居然跟油价有这么大的关系.
avatar
L*n
64
BA led the DOW30 down this week, on top of big market weakness, BA is a
economy sensitive stock, also because of company specific news - possible
delay of 787 delivery. The sharp downturn also exaggerated by the prior
weeks of breakout. - a fairly typical scenario that breakouts are difficult
to sustain in general market weakness. However i'm still optimistic on BA's
outperform prospect in 2015 for couple reasons. of course, based on the
assumption that us economy continue expand, not heading to recession:
1. airlines worldwide will see profit rise, and will expand service - more
airplane needed, in the global scale.
2. republic controlled congress is not gonna be too harsh to defense
contractor - who had seen sharp cut during the O8 presidency. China's
continue show of military force is giving congress excuse to increase
defense budget
technical wise, it drifts back down to the downward wedge, barring continue
breakdown of bottomline of this wedge @120, the breakout is still possible
in the coming months.
NKE enter correction
JNJ start to form topping pattern. PFE actually looking very strong. one of
my last weeks candle was PFE. I took the part from 30.8 to 32 (option) and
will have continue exposure to it. waiting for it to settle.
don't know why they keep deleting my candle post - that actually has many
informations on selling.
-

【在 j*****7 的大作中提到】
: 大夫更新一下这周吧, 好象都不怎么样. 真没想到波音居然跟油价有这么大的关系.
avatar
E*r
65
thx for the update, doc. much have learned.
here are the charts. luckily, i was able to back them up this time

difficult
s

【在 L****n 的大作中提到】
: BA led the DOW30 down this week, on top of big market weakness, BA is a
: economy sensitive stock, also because of company specific news - possible
: delay of 787 delivery. The sharp downturn also exaggerated by the prior
: weeks of breakout. - a fairly typical scenario that breakouts are difficult
: to sustain in general market weakness. However i'm still optimistic on BA's
: outperform prospect in 2015 for couple reasons. of course, based on the
: assumption that us economy continue expand, not heading to recession:
: 1. airlines worldwide will see profit rise, and will expand service - more
: airplane needed, in the global scale.
: 2. republic controlled congress is not gonna be too harsh to defense

avatar
L*n
66
pfe‘s retracemnt worth monitoring.
avatar
L*n
67
thanks. 3 position that i trimmed last week all see some degree of pull back
- selling retain the cash needed for bottom picking, the 2 that remains
barely budge in the storm - man, i wish every week will be this lucky.

【在 E**********r 的大作中提到】
: thx for the update, doc. much have learned.
: here are the charts. luckily, i was able to back them up this time
:
: difficult
: s

avatar
E*r
68
congrats!
luck has little to do with it. i have no doubt that u can win at least
every week only if u have the time to 盯盘

back

【在 L****n 的大作中提到】
: thanks. 3 position that i trimmed last week all see some degree of pull back
: - selling retain the cash needed for bottom picking, the 2 that remains
: barely budge in the storm - man, i wish every week will be this lucky.

avatar
L*n
69
这周开始不错, 高开要爆的样子, 给大盘拉住了。另一个也在风里稳住了, 比较有
把握大盘一稳就会爆起。

back

【在 L****n 的大作中提到】
: thanks. 3 position that i trimmed last week all see some degree of pull back
: - selling retain the cash needed for bottom picking, the 2 that remains
: barely budge in the storm - man, i wish every week will be this lucky.

avatar
L*n
70
继续一下前面的breakout play.
第一个真是挺火的,up about20% in 2wks. 现在到了重要阻力下面。 大盘的
correction基本没影响, 昨天大盘大涨它开始歇了, 就hedge了OTM call. 今天继续
上了新高。 如果不停, 到oe就准备一起close。 如果开始回调, 准备继续加大仓位
, 在重要阻力下面标准形态的回调可以预期后市更大的突破。
第二个一如预期, 双底形态完成, 今天的拉升很牛。 突破可期, 没有动它。
后面几个割过韭菜的, 这两天都领先大盘回到近期新高。 不准备加仓。 就等着提灯。

【在 L****n 的大作中提到】
: 这周开始不错, 高开要爆的样子, 给大盘拉住了。另一个也在风里稳住了, 比较有
: 把握大盘一稳就会爆起。
:
: back

avatar
L*n
71
nearly 1m, all underperform SPY still. Market went through a mini-correction
thanks to oil. and now back to rally mode.
JNJ now looks like heading into a major correction. PFE looks like a better
pharm play at this point.
NKE is already in the correction, rebound is very week in the rally.
BA hasn't really broke out, the handle formation was disrupted during the
market turmoil. could be a hard wash following with eruption, or could take
a little more time to form a handle before take off. don't know which one
will play out, but i'm still confident it will be an outperforming stock in
2015.

【在 L****n 的大作中提到】
: after 1st week, JNJ is leading. NKE stalls after 6wks of rapid rise. BA
: retest broken trendline. all underperform SPY.
:
: P
: over
: research

avatar
S*n
72
这3个你卖掉了吗?

to

【在 L****n 的大作中提到】
: hehe, that is my pick. i bot just a day before i post on DIS. didn't want to
: give it out and be accused of pumping. some idiot even accused me of
: pumping AAPL. i wish i could really.
: BA is coming to a breakout point and i think the chance is good. after a
: sharp rise, may see a period of rest/slight pull back, i took some profit
: today. wait for the 2nd chance of entry to present itself.

avatar
L*n
73
No, 只是回了本, 剩下的还在。 今天出了一个, hedge了一个。

【在 S*******n 的大作中提到】
: 这3个你卖掉了吗?
:
: to

avatar
L*n
74
BA named one of the top 2015 pick by Barron's.

correction
better

【在 L****n 的大作中提到】
: nearly 1m, all underperform SPY still. Market went through a mini-correction
: thanks to oil. and now back to rally mode.
: JNJ now looks like heading into a major correction. PFE looks like a better
: pharm play at this point.
: NKE is already in the correction, rebound is very week in the rally.
: BA hasn't really broke out, the handle formation was disrupted during the
: market turmoil. could be a hard wash following with eruption, or could take
: a little more time to form a handle before take off. don't know which one
: will play out, but i'm still confident it will be an outperforming stock in
: 2015.

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