油价再跌会引起全球股市崩溃啊，是不是空头在下一盘大棋# Stock
p*r
1 楼
趁现在没人敢买油，就集中资金空油，这样能源国家，公司就要垮下来。
他们就会减少开支，公司就会 lay off 人，甚至还会引起银行，保险公司
的坏账。 那样的话这大市就会大幅下落。
是不是我把空头想的太坏了 ？ 还是他们真的在下一盘大棋。
他们就会减少开支，公司就会 lay off 人，甚至还会引起银行，保险公司
的坏账。 那样的话这大市就会大幅下落。
是不是我把空头想的太坏了 ？ 还是他们真的在下一盘大棋。
g*0
2 楼
油价跌明明对全球经济是利好
u*n
3 楼
这问题得老李来给大家讲讲了，办个板凳等着听。。
y*6
4 楼
当心明天石油能源 明天暴力反弹,把你烧糊了
p*r
5 楼
适量跌是好事，但过分了就会出现像我所说的。
【在 g*****0 的大作中提到】
: 油价跌明明对全球经济是利好
a*1
6 楼
跌过头，几百个B的债务有问题，会连锁反应。
再一次金融危机？
【在 p*********r 的大作中提到】
: 趁现在没人敢买油，就集中资金空油，这样能源国家，公司就要垮下来。
: 他们就会减少开支，公司就会 lay off 人，甚至还会引起银行，保险公司
: 的坏账。 那样的话这大市就会大幅下落。
: 是不是我把空头想的太坏了 ？ 还是他们真的在下一盘大棋。
再一次金融危机？
【在 p*********r 的大作中提到】
: 趁现在没人敢买油，就集中资金空油，这样能源国家，公司就要垮下来。
: 他们就会减少开支，公司就会 lay off 人，甚至还会引起银行，保险公司
: 的坏账。 那样的话这大市就会大幅下落。
: 是不是我把空头想的太坏了 ？ 还是他们真的在下一盘大棋。
g*0
7 楼
石油公司跌， 航空， 运输， 消费品公司就涨， 有什么大不了的呢
石油本来就不值钱， 以前完全被opec垄断才人为的高价位
现在只不过价值回归而已
【在 p*********r 的大作中提到】
:
: 适量跌是好事，但过分了就会出现像我所说的。
石油本来就不值钱， 以前完全被opec垄断才人为的高价位
现在只不过价值回归而已
【在 p*********r 的大作中提到】
:
: 适量跌是好事，但过分了就会出现像我所说的。
s*d
8 楼
油价跌，只他妈对中国利好，中国人拼命消费。
p*r
9 楼
对中国也不是都利好，中国很多再生能源的产业就要惨了。
那些太阳能相关的产业大部分在中国。
实际上石油 $80左右应是以后的平衡点，high cost 的 shale oil 也不会那么多。
再生能源也有理由继续，和生存空间。
那些太阳能相关的产业大部分在中国。
实际上石油 $80左右应是以后的平衡点，high cost 的 shale oil 也不会那么多。
再生能源也有理由继续，和生存空间。
L*x
10 楼
中国太阳能对环境的污染和所谓的利润比起来简直是大象对蚂蚁。赶紧倒闭拉到
【在 p*********r 的大作中提到】
: 对中国也不是都利好，中国很多再生能源的产业就要惨了。
: 那些太阳能相关的产业大部分在中国。
: 实际上石油 $80左右应是以后的平衡点，high cost 的 shale oil 也不会那么多。
: 再生能源也有理由继续，和生存空间。
【在 p*********r 的大作中提到】
: 对中国也不是都利好，中国很多再生能源的产业就要惨了。
: 那些太阳能相关的产业大部分在中国。
: 实际上石油 $80左右应是以后的平衡点，high cost 的 shale oil 也不会那么多。
: 再生能源也有理由继续，和生存空间。
c*n
11 楼
捞了点xle作长线，看样子要亏废了。
O*p
12 楼
不少石油公司都向银行贷了巨款，对金融业的冲击也很大。
i*y
13 楼
油价稳定在一个不高的范围内是好事，甚至对某些行业是利多。但是如果跌过头的话，
一旦对某些给石油公司贷款的银行带来负面影响，甚至影响到银行业对实体经济的支持
，以致引起一定程度通缩风险的时候，那对绝大部分行业就都会是利空了 。金融危机
的时候，所有行业普跌就是这个道理。当然现在还看不到美国再陷金融危机的可能，总
体而言美国的经济复苏特别是就业复苏还是不错的；另一个原因是这次原油下跌可能主
观性的因素更多一些。但是原油跌到目前点位，为控制风险对银行业盈利情况必须保持
高度敏感，如果原油继续暴跌，对实体经济的不利影响会更多显现了。以上只是我的个
人看法，不代表任何投资建议，YMYD
一旦对某些给石油公司贷款的银行带来负面影响，甚至影响到银行业对实体经济的支持
，以致引起一定程度通缩风险的时候，那对绝大部分行业就都会是利空了 。金融危机
的时候，所有行业普跌就是这个道理。当然现在还看不到美国再陷金融危机的可能，总
体而言美国的经济复苏特别是就业复苏还是不错的；另一个原因是这次原油下跌可能主
观性的因素更多一些。但是原油跌到目前点位，为控制风险对银行业盈利情况必须保持
高度敏感，如果原油继续暴跌，对实体经济的不利影响会更多显现了。以上只是我的个
人看法，不代表任何投资建议，YMYD
a*1
14 楼
During financial crisis, the leverage is the main problem. To certain extend
, the financial crisis is a good thing as most of the banks were being more
careful in the past several years in lending. Hopefully that would apply to
all the bond they issued to those wildcatters.
The rough estimate runs like this. There might be 50 small E&P companies
with average 2-3 billion debt in question. That equate to about $125B.
Assuming 50% haircut at worst, the real loss about to be 75B for the whole
industry at most. I also expect that most of the high yield bond were held
in the investment funds rather than banking industry. As long as there is
no derivative to amplify the problem, financial wave should be minimal.
【在 i********y 的大作中提到】
: 油价稳定在一个不高的范围内是好事，甚至对某些行业是利多。但是如果跌过头的话，
: 一旦对某些给石油公司贷款的银行带来负面影响，甚至影响到银行业对实体经济的支持
: ，以致引起一定程度通缩风险的时候，那对绝大部分行业就都会是利空了 。金融危机
: 的时候，所有行业普跌就是这个道理。当然现在还看不到美国再陷金融危机的可能，总
: 体而言美国的经济复苏特别是就业复苏还是不错的；另一个原因是这次原油下跌可能主
: 观性的因素更多一些。但是原油跌到目前点位，为控制风险对银行业盈利情况必须保持
: 高度敏感，如果原油继续暴跌，对实体经济的不利影响会更多显现了。以上只是我的个
: 人看法，不代表任何投资建议，YMYD
, the financial crisis is a good thing as most of the banks were being more
careful in the past several years in lending. Hopefully that would apply to
all the bond they issued to those wildcatters.
The rough estimate runs like this. There might be 50 small E&P companies
with average 2-3 billion debt in question. That equate to about $125B.
Assuming 50% haircut at worst, the real loss about to be 75B for the whole
industry at most. I also expect that most of the high yield bond were held
in the investment funds rather than banking industry. As long as there is
no derivative to amplify the problem, financial wave should be minimal.
【在 i********y 的大作中提到】
: 油价稳定在一个不高的范围内是好事，甚至对某些行业是利多。但是如果跌过头的话，
: 一旦对某些给石油公司贷款的银行带来负面影响，甚至影响到银行业对实体经济的支持
: ，以致引起一定程度通缩风险的时候，那对绝大部分行业就都会是利空了 。金融危机
: 的时候，所有行业普跌就是这个道理。当然现在还看不到美国再陷金融危机的可能，总
: 体而言美国的经济复苏特别是就业复苏还是不错的；另一个原因是这次原油下跌可能主
: 观性的因素更多一些。但是原油跌到目前点位，为控制风险对银行业盈利情况必须保持
: 高度敏感，如果原油继续暴跌，对实体经济的不利影响会更多显现了。以上只是我的个
: 人看法，不代表任何投资建议，YMYD
p*r
15 楼
There might be some derivative products relevant to the oil price hedge.
If oil goes down to $40 level, whoever sold or still hold those derivative
products will be in trouble. If they are BK, then the E&P bought the hedge
but cannot realize the hedge will be in trouble.
extend
more
to
【在 a*****1 的大作中提到】
: During financial crisis, the leverage is the main problem. To certain extend
: , the financial crisis is a good thing as most of the banks were being more
: careful in the past several years in lending. Hopefully that would apply to
: all the bond they issued to those wildcatters.
: The rough estimate runs like this. There might be 50 small E&P companies
: with average 2-3 billion debt in question. That equate to about $125B.
: Assuming 50% haircut at worst, the real loss about to be 75B for the whole
: industry at most. I also expect that most of the high yield bond were held
: in the investment funds rather than banking industry. As long as there is
: no derivative to amplify the problem, financial wave should be minimal.
If oil goes down to $40 level, whoever sold or still hold those derivative
products will be in trouble. If they are BK, then the E&P bought the hedge
but cannot realize the hedge will be in trouble.
extend
more
to
【在 a*****1 的大作中提到】
: During financial crisis, the leverage is the main problem. To certain extend
: , the financial crisis is a good thing as most of the banks were being more
: careful in the past several years in lending. Hopefully that would apply to
: all the bond they issued to those wildcatters.
: The rough estimate runs like this. There might be 50 small E&P companies
: with average 2-3 billion debt in question. That equate to about $125B.
: Assuming 50% haircut at worst, the real loss about to be 75B for the whole
: industry at most. I also expect that most of the high yield bond were held
: in the investment funds rather than banking industry. As long as there is
: no derivative to amplify the problem, financial wave should be minimal.
r*e
16 楼
全球有710 trillion 的derivatives，油相关的肯定上trillion。
http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2014/05/13/derivatives-markets-grow
extend
more
to
【在 a*****1 的大作中提到】
: During financial crisis, the leverage is the main problem. To certain extend
: , the financial crisis is a good thing as most of the banks were being more
: careful in the past several years in lending. Hopefully that would apply to
: all the bond they issued to those wildcatters.
: The rough estimate runs like this. There might be 50 small E&P companies
: with average 2-3 billion debt in question. That equate to about $125B.
: Assuming 50% haircut at worst, the real loss about to be 75B for the whole
: industry at most. I also expect that most of the high yield bond were held
: in the investment funds rather than banking industry. As long as there is
: no derivative to amplify the problem, financial wave should be minimal.
http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2014/05/13/derivatives-markets-grow
extend
more
to
【在 a*****1 的大作中提到】
: During financial crisis, the leverage is the main problem. To certain extend
: , the financial crisis is a good thing as most of the banks were being more
: careful in the past several years in lending. Hopefully that would apply to
: all the bond they issued to those wildcatters.
: The rough estimate runs like this. There might be 50 small E&P companies
: with average 2-3 billion debt in question. That equate to about $125B.
: Assuming 50% haircut at worst, the real loss about to be 75B for the whole
: industry at most. I also expect that most of the high yield bond were held
: in the investment funds rather than banking industry. As long as there is
: no derivative to amplify the problem, financial wave should be minimal.
s*i
17 楼
还有一个因素是产油国的石油美元，产油国如果入不敷出，必然从美国欧洲撤资，也是
一个大麻烦啊。
一个大麻烦啊。
p*r
18 楼
过去 2-3 年空头一直在 lose money, 又一直在找机会。
所以很怕这次...
所以很怕这次...
a*1
19 楼
The counterparty risk is always there but should be minimal because they are
usually the final users such as airlines and utility companies.
【在 p*********r 的大作中提到】
: There might be some derivative products relevant to the oil price hedge.
: If oil goes down to $40 level, whoever sold or still hold those derivative
: products will be in trouble. If they are BK, then the E&P bought the hedge
: but cannot realize the hedge will be in trouble.
:
: extend
: more
: to
usually the final users such as airlines and utility companies.
【在 p*********r 的大作中提到】
: There might be some derivative products relevant to the oil price hedge.
: If oil goes down to $40 level, whoever sold or still hold those derivative
: products will be in trouble. If they are BK, then the E&P bought the hedge
: but cannot realize the hedge will be in trouble.
:
: extend
: more
: to
M*t
20 楼
澳洲和巴西股市都跌成渣了。
[发表自未名空间手机版 - m.mitbbs.com]
[发表自未名空间手机版 - m.mitbbs.com]
t*9
21 楼
油价100刀上下很长时间啦，尼玛，现在少赚一点儿就叫唤，其他人都不用活啦 ～～
【在 O***p 的大作中提到】
: 不少石油公司都向银行贷了巨款，对金融业的冲击也很大。
【在 O***p 的大作中提到】
: 不少石油公司都向银行贷了巨款，对金融业的冲击也很大。
u*n
22 楼
i think oil will be staying here for a while. the problem is the oil
companies may not be..
companies may not be..
p*r
23 楼
GS CEO just made comment on CNBC that low energy price is bad to US economic.
I think he meant the current oil price will cause some oil related
companies financial problems and job problems.
I think he meant the current oil price will cause some oil related
companies financial problems and job problems.
p*p
24 楼
本来就是暴发 捞十几年了还想怎样？
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