d*a
2 楼
从去年七月以来石油价格直线下降，直到最近于50左右徘徊
Domestically, lower energy prices means more money for discretionary
spending. The equivalent effect on the US economy is a tax cut for consumers
on the order of $100-125bn. This saving generally translates into higher
consumption on other things like retail spending. Net-net, analysts estimate
higher consumer spending should boost US GDP by .4%-.5% over the next year.
This will be balanced by lower domestic energy production, however.
Internationally, for countries like China, Japan, and South Korea, which are
huge energy importers, each 1% drop in crude prices is the equivalent to
billions of dollars saved on their trade balance. Japan, in particular, has
been suffering from a trade deficit for the past few quarters. The
predominant reason is due to the mounting cost of energy imports (which they
were forced to increase due to their shutting down all of their nuclear
reactors following Fukushima in 2011). Plummeting oil prices is net-net a
huge positive for them. In other parts of the world, low oil prices are
squeezing countries like Russia, Iran, and Venezuela in very negative ways.
In the near-to-medium term, it may force them to adopt a more conciliatory
stance toward the rest of the world on political issues and reforms (Ukraine
/Crimea, nuclear initiatives, etc.) due to the poor state of the economy. In
particular, Russia may be forced to acquiesce on Ukraine just to get
Western Europe to lift its embargo.
Domestically, lower energy prices means more money for discretionary
spending. The equivalent effect on the US economy is a tax cut for consumers
on the order of $100-125bn. This saving generally translates into higher
consumption on other things like retail spending. Net-net, analysts estimate
higher consumer spending should boost US GDP by .4%-.5% over the next year.
This will be balanced by lower domestic energy production, however.
Internationally, for countries like China, Japan, and South Korea, which are
huge energy importers, each 1% drop in crude prices is the equivalent to
billions of dollars saved on their trade balance. Japan, in particular, has
been suffering from a trade deficit for the past few quarters. The
predominant reason is due to the mounting cost of energy imports (which they
were forced to increase due to their shutting down all of their nuclear
reactors following Fukushima in 2011). Plummeting oil prices is net-net a
huge positive for them. In other parts of the world, low oil prices are
squeezing countries like Russia, Iran, and Venezuela in very negative ways.
In the near-to-medium term, it may force them to adopt a more conciliatory
stance toward the rest of the world on political issues and reforms (Ukraine
/Crimea, nuclear initiatives, etc.) due to the poor state of the economy. In
particular, Russia may be forced to acquiesce on Ukraine just to get
Western Europe to lift its embargo.
d*a
3 楼
Oil forecast for next two years-
It is reasonable to assume $60 ceiling and undetermined bottom according to
Forbes. During this period, I see a lot consolidation in O&G companies in US
, especially in Shale gas industry.
It is reasonable to assume $60 ceiling and undetermined bottom according to
Forbes. During this period, I see a lot consolidation in O&G companies in US
, especially in Shale gas industry.
d*a
4 楼
其次，就是所说的earning recession. 尤其对跨国公司而言。
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